While nobody expects off year gubernatorial elections to have the same turnout levels as a presidential election, turnout was very high for these kinds of elections, and a big uptick from 2017. It puts major dents into the conventional wisdom that low turnout elections favor the GOP, and high turnout presidential elections the Dems. There are just too many factors that shift an election one way or another. A lot of pundits and partisans have their takes on the election, which is expected. I think that the stars lined up to produce the right environment for a GOP to win in a now reliably blue state, such as what happened in Virginia. Biden's unpopularity, Terry McAuliffe's unforced errors, ranked choice voting to help nominate Youngkin instead of a hard core Trumpist(especially the ever odious Amanda Chase), and Youngkin keeping his distance from the Former Guy all played a hand in the outcome of the election. There are just many different small things that cumulatively put together, allowed Youngkin to pull off a win.
If one looks at the statewide elected Democrats in Virginia, such as Senator Tim Kaine, Senator Mark Warner, and Governor Ralph Northam, they are all what performative, loud folks from the progressive wing of the Democratic party would consider dull, milquetoast, and just flat out boring. But they are mild mannered and good, decent people. Virginia seems to like these kinds of people to elect to statewide office. The last GOP governor of Virginia before Youngkin's win, Bob McDonnell, was also like that. So was former GOP Lt. Gov Bill Bolling. Both Senators Kaine and Warner, as well as Governor Northam, congratulated Youngkin. McAuliffe did the same and conceded the race. And Northam himself had Youngkin over at the Governor's mansion, and had a warm and friendly meeting with his successor. While there is nothing special or unique about these gestures of civility, it seems that after Trump's post election hissy fit, it is much easier to see the virtue in civility and graciousness. When the script was flipped in 2017, defeated GOP gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie gave a warm and gracious concession to Governor Northam. Some things haven't changed despite the tumultuous past 4-5 years. While it may disappoint the loud, performative actors on all sides of the spectrum, dull and boring has many, many virtues.
And you got all that by an off year election where barely half of registered voters showed up. This in a state where they usually have around 70 to 75 percent vote in presidential elections.
Isn't it funny how everyone has a hot take of how the results favor what they want? AOC says it means dems need to be less moderate. Manchin thinks it means we need to not spend anymore money. Republicans believe it means CRT is toxic to the American public at large.
In reality it probably just means the Rs had the better candidate in an election that they had all the advantages. How much money would you bet that he holds that seat in 4 years?
Dang. You got all that from what I wrote? No, Youngkin was not a better candidate. Not by any stretch. It was an off year Governor election, but it wasn’t something you can hand-wave away.
Oh I'm not hand waving anything. Dems should never lose in Virginia these days. The fact they did should be a warning to every D out there. But it doesn't mean there is some cosmic shift either. And he really was. Dems should have never let McGov run again.
Good opinions that may or may not be totally correct. Youngkin will not not hold the seat four years from now. He will be ineligible to serve two consecutive terms.
Barring an impeachment, recall, or death in office. I'm pretty sure he will still hold the office 4 years from now (Nov. 5, 2025), given that he's not inaugurated until Jan. 15, 2022 and his term ends on Jan. 15, 2026. ;-)
While nobody expects off year gubernatorial elections to have the same turnout levels as a presidential election, turnout was very high for these kinds of elections, and a big uptick from 2017. It puts major dents into the conventional wisdom that low turnout elections favor the GOP, and high turnout presidential elections the Dems. There are just too many factors that shift an election one way or another. A lot of pundits and partisans have their takes on the election, which is expected. I think that the stars lined up to produce the right environment for a GOP to win in a now reliably blue state, such as what happened in Virginia. Biden's unpopularity, Terry McAuliffe's unforced errors, ranked choice voting to help nominate Youngkin instead of a hard core Trumpist(especially the ever odious Amanda Chase), and Youngkin keeping his distance from the Former Guy all played a hand in the outcome of the election. There are just many different small things that cumulatively put together, allowed Youngkin to pull off a win.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republican-sweep-in-virginia-sets-off-alarm-bells-for-democrats/
https://wcyb.com/news/local/southwest-virginia-voter-turnout-up-31-in-2021-compared-to-2017
If one looks at the statewide elected Democrats in Virginia, such as Senator Tim Kaine, Senator Mark Warner, and Governor Ralph Northam, they are all what performative, loud folks from the progressive wing of the Democratic party would consider dull, milquetoast, and just flat out boring. But they are mild mannered and good, decent people. Virginia seems to like these kinds of people to elect to statewide office. The last GOP governor of Virginia before Youngkin's win, Bob McDonnell, was also like that. So was former GOP Lt. Gov Bill Bolling. Both Senators Kaine and Warner, as well as Governor Northam, congratulated Youngkin. McAuliffe did the same and conceded the race. And Northam himself had Youngkin over at the Governor's mansion, and had a warm and friendly meeting with his successor. While there is nothing special or unique about these gestures of civility, it seems that after Trump's post election hissy fit, it is much easier to see the virtue in civility and graciousness. When the script was flipped in 2017, defeated GOP gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie gave a warm and gracious concession to Governor Northam. Some things haven't changed despite the tumultuous past 4-5 years. While it may disappoint the loud, performative actors on all sides of the spectrum, dull and boring has many, many virtues.
And you got all that by an off year election where barely half of registered voters showed up. This in a state where they usually have around 70 to 75 percent vote in presidential elections.
Isn't it funny how everyone has a hot take of how the results favor what they want? AOC says it means dems need to be less moderate. Manchin thinks it means we need to not spend anymore money. Republicans believe it means CRT is toxic to the American public at large.
In reality it probably just means the Rs had the better candidate in an election that they had all the advantages. How much money would you bet that he holds that seat in 4 years?
Dang. You got all that from what I wrote? No, Youngkin was not a better candidate. Not by any stretch. It was an off year Governor election, but it wasn’t something you can hand-wave away.
Just curious. Why is Youngkin a much worse candidate as implied by your "not by any stretch" comment?
Oh I'm not hand waving anything. Dems should never lose in Virginia these days. The fact they did should be a warning to every D out there. But it doesn't mean there is some cosmic shift either. And he really was. Dems should have never let McGov run again.
Good opinions that may or may not be totally correct. Youngkin will not not hold the seat four years from now. He will be ineligible to serve two consecutive terms.
Barring an impeachment, recall, or death in office. I'm pretty sure he will still hold the office 4 years from now (Nov. 5, 2025), given that he's not inaugurated until Jan. 15, 2022 and his term ends on Jan. 15, 2026. ;-)
5 years from now - you're right on the money!
Yeah, I saw that flaw just as I pressed the post button.
"My kingdom for an edit button!"