Are we about to go to war with Venezuela?
Don't shoot until you see the white of their cocaine.
In his presidential campaigns, Donald Trump painted his Democratic opponents as warmongers. In 2016, Trump argued that Hillary would start World War III over Syria. He made a similar claim about Biden in 2024. At the same time, Trump painted himself as a peacemaker who would end “the era of endless wars.”
That was a year ago, and a lot has changed.
_underway_in_the_Atlantic_Ocean_on_9_October_2022_(221009-N-TL968-1248).JPG){kind=link}
Trump still talks about ending wars, claiming to end some that never even started. He does get credit for the fragile and often broken ceasefire in Gaza as well as for pressuring Israel to halt its air war against Iran (which may prove to have been stopped prematurely), but these days, the president is better known for his militarism against both American cities and foreign countries. In fact, it looks increasingly likely that the one-time opponent of nation-building may be about to embark upon a regime change crusade in Venezuela.
Over the past few months, the Trump Administration has been ramping up pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. For weeks now, Trump has been ordering strikes of very questionable legality on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean. The attacks began around Venezuela, but have since ranged all the way to the Pacific. Supporters of the attacks might want to ask themselves why survivors were repatriated to their home countries if the evidence against the alleged “narcoterrorists” was strong enough to warrant death.
Trump has also deployed America’s most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, to the Caribbean. The AP notes that this decision leaves Europe and the Middle East without carrier battle groups.
In case there is any doubt about the message being sent, Trump has openly authorized the CIA to undertake covert operations in Venezuela (is it really covert if you publicly announce it?), flown heavy strategic bombers nearby, and hinted that military action on land may be coming soon.
Early on, there was some speculation that Trump might be playing up tensions with Venezuela to more plausibly justify deportations under the Alien Enemies Act. I think we are way past that explanation at this point, although more deportations might be a happy coincidence for MAGA.
When asked why he had authorized force against Venezuela, Trump answered with two reasons, neither of which is true, saying, “Number one, they have emptied their prisons into the United States of America. And the other thing, the drugs, we have a lot of drugs coming in from Venezuela.”
American intelligence has found no evidence of Venezuela shipping criminals to the US, and the New York Times notes that the country is actually encouraging people to return. Likewise, experts say that Venezuela plays only a minor role in the transportation of illegal drugs to the United States. Of Venezuela’s role in the drug trade, cocaine is the most common. The country has almost nothing to do with the fentanyl trade, despite Trump Administration claims.
Maduro has been a burr under Trump’s saddle for quite some time. In Trump’s first term, the CIA launched cyberattacks against Maduro’s intelligence service. Trump also tried to engineer a coup against Maduro that ultimately failed. (One of the aspects of the plot was attacking Venezuelan finances to - wait for it - deny the military its paychecks.) The purges that followed left Maduro more firmly in control of the country than ever. This week, the AP revealed another plot in which federal agents tried to recruit Maduro’s personal pilot to betray him and deliver him into American hands.
At this point, the plotting against Maduro is starting to remind me of the many attempts to kill Fidel Castro in the 1960s that are darkly humorous today. Castro’s longevity should be a reminder that close brushes with death don’t necessarily signify God’s favor on the survivor.
Beyond the questions about competence and the ability to foment coups to depose heads of state, Trump’s actions look very familiar to those of us who remember the run-up to other wars. Trump has already far exceeded the saber-rattling that preceded the invasions of Grenada, Panama, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
One thing I have learned over the past few decades is that dictators will cling to power as long as they can. There were even reports earlier this month that Maduro was willing to sell Venezuela’s wealth to Trump to preserve his rule. The fact that Trump rejected this offer is evidence that the regime change is a personal issue.
In a great many cases, public pressure on authoritarian regimes has failed. Often, when the US has been determined to topple a dictator, it has taken American troops to do it. Afghanistan, Iraq, Grenada, and Panama are all recent examples.
Trump doesn’t necessarily want to go to war with Venezuela. He may think saber-rattling will be enough to frighten Maduro into abdicating. I think he’s wrong on this, and there is the possibility that continuing to escalate will embroil the US in a war that no one wanted.
Would Congress vote to authorize force against Venezuela? Probably not, but Trump is not in the habit of asking. Thus far in his second term, he has acted without permission and dared anyone to stop him. There haven’t been many effective roadblocks.
Trump has indicated that he would notify Congress of any military action on land but said that he would not ask for a declaration of war in what he claims would be attacks on drug cartels.
“I’m not going to necessarily ask for a declaration of war,” Trump said, per a CNN report. “I think we’re just going to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country. Okay? We’re going to kill them, you know, they’re going to be like, dead.”
Trump continued, “We’re going to tell them [Congress] what we’re going to do and I think they’ll probably like it, except for the radical left lunatics.”
At this point, Trump’s version of “radical left lunatics” probably includes a handful of Republicans like Rand Paul and Thomas Massie.
As Just Security points out, the Administration is arguing both that Venezuelan gang members are carrying out irregular warfare against the United States at Maduro’s direction and that the US is not involved in an international conflict wth Venezuela to justify its end run around the need for congressional approval. Both cannot be true.
What would a war with Venezuela look like? Trump might hope that a covert war might build support for a popular uprising or a coup attempt. As mentioned previously, that strategy failed in the past.
The next step might be air strikes that target Maduro’s government and attempt to kill the dictator. However, it is notoriously hard to topple a regime using air power alone. The US couldn’t do it in North Vietnam, Libya, or Iraq, the Israelis couldn’t do it in Iran, and the Russians couldn’t do it in Ukraine, even with ground troops thrown into the mix.
If Trump wants to depose Maduro, it is probably going to take a full-scale invasion and occupation. Trump will need to administer the country and set up a new government, because what’s the point in regime change if you just get another regime you don’t like?
Nation-building in Venezuela might end up looking a lot like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam, not to mention the innumerable US interventions in Latin America before WWII. (Did you know that the US Marines ran Haiti for 20 years? Most Americans don’t, but you can rest assured that most Latin Americans do.)
The US would easily overcome the Maduro regime’s defenses and occupy the country, but we would probably become embroiled in long-term warfare with guerrillas that strike fast and then disappear into the jungle. We would face snipers and IEDs in the cities, and our puppet government would be riddled with moles.
Having just gotten out of Iraq and Afghanistan, I don’t think most Americans are in the mood to start another war, especially a stupid one that we would be fighting for no good reason. YouGov recently found that, while Americans were divided on sending ships to Venezuela, 62 percent opposed military intervention. (Only 16 percent approved, with 22 percent undecided.) If Trump hopes that a war or diplomatic victory in Venezuela would distract the country from the Epstein files (still not released after 282 days in office), the slowing economy, and rising prices, he has work to do.
It is difficult to say what Trump’s plans for Venezuela are. Aside from the usual military secrecy, Pete Hegseth’s Department of Defense has taken the unusual step of having officers involved with South American planning and operations sign nondisclosure agreements in addition to the usual military secrecy rules. The story from “three US officials” indicates that Hegseth’s battle against leaks is not entirely successful.
Still, the Administration’s goals are obvious even if its methodology might not be. As Trump apologist Lindsey Graham (MAGA-SC) recently said on CBS, “I hope Maduro would leave peacefully, but I don’t think he’s going to stay around much longer.”
In other news, Trump’s chances for next year’s Nobel Peace Prize are already in serious doubt.
Check out our social media today for some of the best No Kings pictures!
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NewsRacket
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/NewsRacket
Mastodon: https://federated.press/@RacketNews
Threads: https://www.threads.net/@theracketnews
David: https://www.threads.net/@captainkudzu71
Steve: https://www.threads.net/@stevengberman
Our personal accounts on the platform formerly known as Twitter:
David: https://twitter.com/captainkudzu
Steve: https://twitter.com/stevengberman
Jay: https://twitter.com/curmudgeon_NH
Thanks again for subscribing! Don’t forget to share us with your friends!
The Castro comparison is apt. Dictators die in bed more than they end strung up by a crowd. There is reason to engage in South America, but the way we're doing it (militarily vs. economic and trade) is going to drive nations like Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, and even Peru and Argentina further into China's orbit and out of ours.
"... is it really covert if you publicly announce it?"
If you don't announce it, how are you going to get credit for "doing something"?