Bella Europa

Plus, can Ron DeSantis become the frontrunner?

In the G7, Europe is represented four times; or said another way, 57% of the G7 is European. Another 28.5% is North American, both at one time colonies of the Europeans. The sole Asian member is Japan. Geopolitically, Japan’s worries center around China and North Korea. But the G7, meeting in Hiroshima, is mostly about Ukraine and Russia. This reflects the European axiom that all wars begin and end on their continent.

So much for geopolitics fought with Napoleonic land wars. Economically, the G7 makes up 48% of the world’s GDP, based on 2021 numbers. China plus Russia are another 33%, totaling 81.4% between them. This is the modern equivalent of the empires that ruled from Europe in the 19th century, sucking all the natural resources from Africa and Asia, and forcing China to become a narco state—with England as their Walter White.

China has neither forgotten nor forgiven its treatment at the greedy hands of the East India Company; India is still quite raw if you mention the Raj. But neither China, the world’s largest economy, beating the U.S. by $4 trillion PPP 2021 dollars, nor India, with a GDP just shy of the U.K.’s, and larger than both Italy’s and Canada’s, is represented in the G7.

There are now worries that Russia will become a vassal state of China, expressed by French President Emmanuel Macron. There could be something to it if history lent it serious consideration, but it doesn’t. Russia and China are friendly (for now), but approach each other more equally and with circumspection, because economics don’t mean as much as nuclear warheads or sheer political power. Apparently Macron never studied history. (As an aside: Macron has a Masters in philosophy from Paris Nanterre University, and graduated top of his class from the University of French Political Power, aka École Nationale d’Administration, meaning he dwells at the far left of the Dunning-Kruger chart.) Also, France’s GDP is smaller than Russia’s. Napoleon of the 2020s will not be knocking on the door of the Kremlin any time soon.

As the G7 takes up further sanctions against Russia, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will make a personal appearance, which you likely know if you read or watch any major news source. Zelenskyy is there to ask for more money, weapons, and aid—mostly weapons. Economically, it has been a bargain for the West to whip Russia’s butt using NATO weapons while sacrificing Ukrainian lives. There’s a counteroffensive brewing for the late spring, and the West is hopeful that Russia will grind itself to dust while losing more of the Donbas. Perhaps.

Within the G7, Europe represents nearly 32% of the group’s GDP, while the U.S. alone has 51.4%. Whatever the U.S. wants, it tends to get, so Zelenskyy’s bid will primarily be aimed at President Biden, who wants to get in and out quickly so he can sign a bill preventing the U.S. from defaulting on its debt. Zelenskyy wants F-16s and more tanks.

Japan will struggle to be heard above the din of Europe’s war, though the meeting is supposed to be about dealing with China. China pulled a Teddy Roosevelt move, sending a naval flotilla on a 12-day tour around the Japanese islands, led by one of its most powerful guided missile destroyers, the Lhasa. The far-east is China’s sphere of influence, and the CCP believes it’s entitled to the same deference the U.S. gets in North America, so close to its own shores.

The G7 will consume itself with Ukraine, and won’t come to any cohesive agreement about China. Bella Europa will always win with this group, even in Hiroshima, in the shadow of the atomic age.

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to announce his official entry into the GOP race in the next few days. The problems the GOP faces are well-known. DeSantis is not particularly a people-person, and has to demonstrate he can connect with crowds, and not just fight the culture war from Tallahassee. His fight with Disney will not be enough to win the nomination. His real fight is with Donald Trump.

The frontrunner typically loses momentum and doesn’t finish well. Except for Donald Trump, who took the front and kept it. This race will be all about timing. Whether you think Trump is fated to take the nomination or not, he is formidable in his circle. DeSantis will need to time his moves well, and be able to stand up against the other non-Trump candidates, notably Nikki Haley.

It will be good to see if there’s a DeSantis bump when he announces. Of course, Trump will do something to steal the limelight. Maybe he’ll get arrested again. We can only hope.