Breaking: Not a truce, but a start
Let me be clear: hope a little bit, but don’t get your hopes up.
I am breaking our Thanksgiving writing hiatus to briefly report that the anticipated hostage swap and brief halt to the fighting has been approved by both Hamas and Israel. Israel has to wait the requisite 24 hours before releasing prisoners, as its law requires, to give time for citizens to appeal the matter before its Supreme Court.
I wrote at length about the deal and what both sides seek to get from it. The AP is reporting this “raises hopes” about halting the violence. Let me be clear: don’t get your hopes up. I hesitate to even call this a “truce” because we all know both sides are on hair trigger, and Hamas doesn’t control all the terrorists in Gaza. Any break in the fighting is fragile, and to the largest extent depends on Israel’s willingness to absorb random attacks without responding.
Israel really, really wants the hostages back—all of them. Getting 50 alive is better than getting none alive, so the war cabinet is going to do what it has to do, and what Israeli citizens expect it to do. But the citizens also expect Israel to prosecute the war as close to the end as it can. This is not some “cutting the lawn” operation where the IDF goes in and dismantles a few tunnels. The aim of the war is the total dismantling of Hamas and its ability to wage war against Israel.
This means that the IDF is not leaving, and not retreating one inch inside Gaza, during or after the short halt in fighting. The halt is supposed to last four days, according to sources in Qatar. There will be a timed release of hostages to ensure the fighting stops for the requisite time. During that time, I am certain Israel’s restraint will be tested, and also that Hamas will parade an endless stream of dead bodies in front of a waiting press. All the media tours that Israel had showing atrocities against civilians will be wiped away in four days. But Israel expects this and is used to it.
Kevin Williamson compared Israel’s war not to a “police action” or legal prosecution, but to Air Marshal Arthur Harris versus Gen. Wilhelm Keitel in 1945. Bomber Command had no compunction about destroying Dresden. I’d also add the comparison of Gen. Curtis LeMay versus Yoshijirō Umezu. LeMay firebombed Japan without mercy, because Japan refused to surrender unconditionally. Israel seeks an unconditional surrender of Hamas, but it is under no illusion it will get what it wants. At some point, this war will end short of Israel attaining its goal. However, this four day break in fighting will not be that end.
Though I pray this Thanksgiving for the safety of civilians and Israeli military, I believe the most vicious fighting is still ahead in this terrible war. Hamas will use its four day break to rearm and reposition in order to kill more Israelis, and if possible, to once again bring the war to Israel on multiple fronts.
However, the fact that both sides were willing to agree to something is a start. My anger is mostly reserved here for Qatar, which is shining a light of sainthood on itself, while it hosts the heads of Hamas in luxury, banking their billions made in illicit drugs and smuggling operations. America has 11,000 troops stationed outside of Doha, where the “Four Seasons in Doha is very keen to repeat that the Hamas boss absolutely, positively does not live in a penthouse suite in the hotel,” as Williamson deadpanned. Perhaps he doesn’t “live” there, but it’s clear he’s welcome to stay.
America should not be so cozy with the supporters of terror. Yet, we are. If I were POTUS, I’d have grabbed Ismail Haniyeh on October 8th, and traded him for all the hostages. But the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and his money say otherwise; Washington is listening to the money, and trying to keep Qatar from exiting America’s orbit and entering Iran’s. It’s shameful that we are allowing Qatar to broker a fragile “truce” that everyone knows will be followed by more death, when Qatar profits from both sides.
This Thanksgiving will be joyful at the return of at least some of the hostages to Israeli families. It will be tinged with sadness for those (on both sides) who have died. We should be sad at the death of Palestinian children; they don’t deserve to die. We should be sad at war and hate. But I am thankful there are still some people committed to preserving life, and I am thankful we still live in a country where we have the opportunity to be the bulwark of civilization through our unrivaled military, economic, and yes, moral, power. May we not waste our blessings.
Have a great Thanksgiving, and remember David’s entreaties to avoid divisive topics at the turkey table.