Chill, y'all: Trump's gonna lose
But not for the reason you might think.
The other day, y’all blew a gasket at my post about the parade of horribles that will ensue should the Harris-Walz administration gain control of the White House and both houses of Congress. I stand by my assertion that the Harris campaign does not want conservative votes. They do not pursue this group in either policy or rhetoric. The mere detestation of Donald Trump is enough for her to count on enough to beat him.
Trump, for his part, participates in his own defeat. Normally, issues are on the side of Republicans, since the Democrats have gone far over the progressive cliffs of insanity, pursuing Ouroboros in ever-self denying intersectional critical theory, Marxist-adjacent power structures. But with Trump, even these ideas don’t compete with his race-baiting nonsensical diatribes in their ability to turn off potential voters.
If only Trump “stuck to discipline,” or “stayed on message,” the pundits wail. If only he didn’t wade into election conspiracies or “blood and soil” rants about killers coming in from Mexico. But we all know that a 78-year-old huckster does not change his schtick. That would be like (for all who are over 40) asking the late Don Rickles (bless his soul) to become Jerry Seinfeld. My uncle used to say “if the queen had balls, she’d be king.” Trump won’t change, and therefore he is at the mercy of events, and his opponent.
The race is Kamala Harris’s to lose. She could, indeed, lose it, but that would be her fault. Here’s a couple of possible scenarios she might have to deal with, that could sink her—there aren’t a whole lot of these, by the way.
Israel could preemptively attack Hezbollah, Lebanon, or Iran (or all three). This could very well happen in some combination, because the Knesset had long ago given the greenlight to the IDF to go into Lebanon anytime it sees the threat and opportunity align. The imagery will be horrible, and calls by the far-left to stand against the Israelis will be strident. If Harris gave in to it, that could be fatal. Israel, regardless of the idiots on campuses, is still near and dear to American hearts.
There could be a mass shooting. Normally, this would play to Democrats, but that means going down the gun control hall of fame walk. It’s not an issue that will play well, and coupled with the fence-walk Harris needs to do on her record as a prosecutor, could disrupt her Democrat coalition while firing up some conservatives who might otherwise vote for her out of disdain for Trump. She’d have to play it carefully, and let President Biden lead.
Russia or China could do something heinous, like a blockade of Taiwan, or some kind of war crime in Ukraine (think thermobaric fuel weapons or a nuclear plant disaster). Again, this would put the pressure on President Biden, but it would also show that Harris might not have the foreign policy chops to do the job. But if she does step in, whatever she does could be divisive. Standing with Ukraine is the right play.
Barring these kinds of disruptors, Harris has the unified support of her entire party (not just the apparatchiks), which Donald Trump does not (he has the support of MAGA and those who record hostage-tape endorsements on the news shows). Biden had to exit the race because he could not win without the support of his party (not necessarily because he could not win if they did support him). Unity is powerful and will eventually overwhelm the pirate coalition of Elon Musk, Turning Point USA, and the stellar map of conspiracists, hucksters and leg-humpers representing the Trump campaign and covering for its candidate’s spewed idiocy.
Let me say one thing about the comments and reasoning regarding the other day’s posts. If Democrats capture all the levers of federal power, they will indeed pursue the parade of horribles I outlined. It’s part of their platform to do so, and it will please the leftists in their base. However, they very well may not achieve the legislative majority to do any of it. The folks in the Republican Party who many of you claimed are self-interested hypocrites are the ones who will rise up and oppose what Democrats want to do.
The very people, Govs. Chris Sununu, Brian Kemp, Ron DeSantis, Amb. Nikki Haley, and the like, who bent the knee or buried the hatchet with Trump, will be the ones leading the GOP to raise awareness, funds, and candidates to oppose what Democrats really want to do. This, as much as it’s driven by raw self-interest and politics, is good for the party. It’s part of the David French “I’m voting for Kamala Harris to save conservatism” argument. However, French tried to make that into some principled approach, and it’s not at all principled, unless the principle is naked self-interest and political power.
But our government runs on naked self-interest and political power (don’t ask to see how the sausage is made if you are squeamish about such things). The best thing for the GOP is for Trump to lose, and those who hid in caves “supporting the nominee” come out and do what they do. You might think that former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, or former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, have more moral high ground, and you’re right, they do. But no GOP political analyst or fundraiser will ever (or for a long time) trust them fully to do what the cave-dwellers will do on Day 1 of the Harris administration.
It’s the very hypocrites and knee-benders many of you got your knickers twisted about who will lead the effort to oppose the things Democrats want to do. And unless you are one of the Democrats who want to do those things, you’ll respond, because they’ll speak from the normal place where Republicans have the advantage of the issues.
Donald Trump is going to lose, unless the Harris campaign steps in a giant pile of shaving cream. What happens after is where we need to be looking.
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Normally, I'd interpret this as a call for me to vote Harris on the top of the ticket, and GOP the rest of the way down, even the lickspittles and hostages.
The problem is that we sit a new Congress BEFORE the certification of the Electoral votes, and I don't have ANY confidence that the GOP left standing on that day will do the right thing if Harris is victorious, so I have to worry about that vote before I can start counting on them to balance out the new Harris administration.
Normally this would be an EASY choice, but Trump's insistence that supporters follow him over the Big Lie Cliff has screwed Republicans who would otherwise be easy folks to vote for.
I’ve never heard the shaving cream song but it’s hilarious.