Does Trump want war?

If so, he may not get the war he wants.

Sep 24, 2025

Donald Trump campaigned on peace, saying that Kamala Harris’s incompetence would start WWIII. Shortly after the inauguration, most of the talk of peace went out the window like a Russian oligarch critical of Vladimir Putin when the new president started talking about annexing Greenland, Panama, and even Canada, but those conflicts never went beyond the bluster stage.

Now we’ve started shooting. So far, Trump has ordered attacks on three (presumably) Venezuelan boats that we know of. The Administration says these boats are smuggling drugs, but we don’t really know, because the government has never presented evidence as they would if they were prosecuting the crews. The boats are not an imminent threat to US forces, there is no authorization to use military force, and there seems to be no reason not to board and inspect them as the Coast Guard and Navy have been doing to suspect vessels throughout our history.

So why sink them?

No one really knows at this point. It could simply be that Trump is trying to send a message to the cartels and/or look tough to his base. The first is their stated reason, but the second is assumed by many of our Latin American neighbors.

And that goes beyond Venezuelan President Maduro. For example, President Gustavo Petro of Colombia recently said that the attacks were “only for television” and would not stop the flow of drugs.

“It’s murder,” Petro said, speaking to the Washington Post. “Because they don’t have weapons, because they don’t have the capacity, and because that’s not how you stop drug trafficking.”

Another possibility is that Trump is using the attacks to goad Venezuela into providing a pretext for larger military action on the ground in South or Central America. Trump talked about using the military against drug cartels in the 2024 campaign (this was also in Project 2025), but attacking the cartels on sovereign territory, including in countries that are our allies, would be an act of war that would have disastrous diplomatic consequences at the least.

As Americans, most of us aren’t aware of all of the US interventions in the Caribbean and Latin America over the 200 years of the Monroe Doctrine, but our southern neighbors are probably much more informed. Max Boot’s excellent book, “The Savage Wars of Peace,” gives the details of many of these small wars including the fact that the US ruled Haiti for about 20 years and has possibly carried out military interventions in more Latin American countries than not. That isn’t an anti-American statement. It’s a factual one that most of us are ignorant of.

If Venezuela or some other country or organization strikes back against the US, it could provide a justification for yet another incursion into a South American neighbor. Trump could conceivably order the US military to either mount a covert special operations campaign against the cartels à la “Clear and Present Danger,” a full-scale invasion and regime change in Venezuela, or something in between.

Why might Trump consider starting a war? He’s an unpopular president and there is a perception that wartime presidents are popular. That probably isn’t as true as it used to be, and it greatly depends on the war. Wars that we are forced into seem to bring more unity and popularity than than elective police actions.

More to the point, Trump may look to a war as a way to distract from his unpopular domestic agenda and the slowing economy. Authoritarians often use wars or the scapegoating of minorities to shift the focus from other policy failures. This strategy was famously depicted in the phony war in “Wag the Dog.”

And then there’s the possibility that a war could be used to crack down both on political opponents and immigrants. Trump has attempted to use the Alien Enemies Act to justify mass deportations, but the law requires that a war or invasion. Further, restrictions on civil liberties are common during wartime. Trump could be seeking to follow the example of Woodrow Wilson, who used WWI as an excuse to jail political opponents, establish a network of government informants, assume control of large parts of the economy, and persecute unions. Trump has already vowed to crack down on leftist groups in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s murder, even though there is no evidence of any conspiracy in the crime.

History is full of wars that people thought would be easy to win, but which turned out to be difficult to end. It’s very possible that a foray into Latin America could become a bloody quagmire. That’s particularly true if Trump attempts regime change in Venezuela.

The Caribbean isn’t the only potential hotspot. Beyond Venezuela, Trump has floated the idea of returning to Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan. The only way that Trump will regain access to Bagram is by reigniting the Afghan War, a war that his first Administration negotiated with the Taliban to end. Few Americans of either political persuasion would have any appetite for restarting hostilities in Afghanistan.

To be fair, there are also wars that Trump wants no part of. After a nominal attempt to negotiate an end to Russian aggression in Ukraine, Trump quickly figured out that Putin does not want to end the invasion and Ukraine doesn’t want to roll over for the invaders. Since the Alaska summit, Trump seems to have washed his hands of the conflict as Russia escalates against both Ukraine and NATO members. On Tuesday, Trump said that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that violate their airspace, but historically, such tough talk has not lasted long.

I have no faith that Trump would honor our treaty commitments if Putin attacked a NATO member, and Putin obviously agrees. Trump’s weakness makes an expanded war more likely. Trump may think that it would not involve the US, but like the appeasement of Adolf Hitler, the appeasement of Putin may have unintended consequences.

The Chinese don’t fear Trump either. Trump has refused to follow the law regarding the Chinese divestment of TikTok (although a deal may finally be close) and recently suspended arms shipments to Taiwan. Trump’s trade war has isolated the US and weakened our economy, while China has expanded its political influence and trade ties.

China has been playing the long game for more than half a century, but they want Taiwan back. They see Trump’s fecklessness in dealing with other countries. If China decides to invade Taiwan before 2028, it would surprise few other than Trump and MAGA. The Chinese might well roll the dice that Trump would not respond militarily and that their new economic ties with the rest of the world would mute international opposition.

I don’t know if Trump wants a war. Maybe he just wants to be the neighborhood bully to impress his base. If Trump does want war, Europe and Taiwan are probably not the wars he wants, but it’s likely that these could be the one (or more) he gets. Action by either Putin or China could spur the other to open a second front while the rest of the world is distracted and busy. They might even plan their moves in concert since they are already working together against Ukraine.

I don’t always agree with Donald Trump, but I do agree with him in part that diplomatic and military incompetence could easily start WWIII. The difference in our points of view is largely described by the Dunning–Kruger effect and Trump’s inability to see his own lack of competence, a problem compounded by his bubble of yes-men.

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RAPTURE WRONG: If you were expecting the rapture to occur on Tuesday, the internet predictions appear to have been wrong. This is not the first time that the rapture was erroneously predicted, and it won’t be the last. Jesus said that no one knows when he will return so biblically literate believers ignore all date-setting.

I’ve read a lot about end times theology over the years, and I’ve been meaning to write about some of my ideas. I’ll plan on including a deeper dive into the rapture, but as I wrote at the last alleged apocalypse, the important thing is to be ready because our lives could end at any time, regardless of whether the rest of the world does.