Either or: politics and facts

Ukraine and the demise of the USPS.

Many things that are in apparent mutual exclusive conflict can actually both be true. For example, I hate anything cooked with pineapple in it, but I would eat Hawaiian luau food until I burst. De gustibus non est disputandum. When making important decisions about our nation, and our world, however, there are many tradeoffs that are very much dependent on the relative truths of facts and assumptions regarding first principles. Unfortunately, we are awash in lies regarding both.

Photo: The White House, Wikimedia Commons

I’m going to start about a topic on which I’ve written reams, but can’t seem to penetrate many first assumptions held by others. Either Ukraine can win its existential war against Russia, and return itself to territorial wholeness, or it cannot.

Yes, there’s plenty of room for “ifs” and “maybes” and “dunnos” in there. However, the basic first assumption is that given the current set of facts on the ground, is it reasonable to adopt a certain basket of beliefs?

An easy one. Despite Vladimir Putin’s claims, there is no Russian territorial or cultural hegemony on all Slavic peoples, including Ukraine. Ukrainians are indeed Slavs, but their heritage is Cossack and Tatar. Though many eastern Ukrainians speak Russian as their mother tongue, they are not Russian. The kind of claim Putin makes is a “blood and soil” argument offered by emperors and tyrants through history to justify bloodthirsty invasions. If you believe Putin’s version, you’re believing a horrendous lie, but that belief would certainly justify Putin’s war, in that he’s losing a central piece of Russian culture and must defend it. Except it’s not true at all.

A harder one. Is Russia desperate and on the ropes? It might seem so by their massive casualties, but looks can be deceptive. Russia is using some North Korean troops in its bid to retake Ukrainian-held territory in the Kursk Oblast. But Russia is also attacking on all its fronts, according to daily reports by the Institute for the Study of War. On most of its fronts, Russia is advancing while Ukrainian troops prefer to fight a defensive posture, focusing on inflicting mass casualties on the Russians. This has been the situation all winter. I’ve written before that Russia’s war goals are in Washington, not Ukraine.

But time is on Russia’s side, too. Russia is using North Korean and Iranian ammunition and drones, while producing its own along with hypersonic missiles. Russia is producing drones at its Yelabuga facility in Tararstan, which the Ukrainians have hit with their own drones. Its factories are also churning out Zircon, Kinzhal and Oreshnik hypersonic missiles, which are used in mass attacks across Ukraine against energy infrastructure, defense production, and civilian targets. The Oreshnik is new, and reportedly hits speeds up to Mach 10, making it extremely difficult to intercept.

Russia’s great size is its greatest asset (as Napoleon and Hitler learned the hard way). With factories spread out across the vast territories, it’s difficult for Ukraine, or any foe, to completely knock out their production. And Russia is truly running a war economy right now.

The Russians are learning how to overwhelm and fool Ukrainian (and western) drone defenses. Their Gerbera decoys are made by the thousands from foam and plywood, and mimic the radar signature of Iranian Shahed drones. They are also committed to new technology. ISR reported Monday:

Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated during the "Ukraine. Year 2025" Forum on February 23 that Russian forces have attempted to integrate first person-view (FPV) drone launch systems onto helicopters to counter Ukrainian naval drones.[74]Budanov stated that Russian forces recently damaged two helicopters while trying to launch FPV drones from the helicopters, presumably over the Black Sea, and that Russian forces no longer are attempting to launch FPV drones from helicopters.

Over the weekend, on the 3rd anniversary of Russia’s invasion, a record number of drones were launched against Ukraine, including three Iskander-M/North Korean provided KN-23 ballistic missiles. Russia is not suffering any shortage of drone or missile production, as it was believed they had in late 2022 or through 2023.

The Ukrainians, for their part, have been touting their own war production. During the “Ukraine, Year 2025” forum over the weekend, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine has produced 2.2 million first-person view (FPV) drones and 100,000 long-range drones in 2024, and intends to up production in 2025. The U.S. has funded 30 percent of Ukraine’s domestic war production, with the E.U. funding another 30 percent, and Ukraine funding 40 percent. In 2025, he said Ukraine was committed to increase its contribution to 50 percent.

It’s hard to get the answer from what the leaders are saying. Is there a path for Ukraine to win? I don’t know. I don’t think there’s a reasonable answer, unless you go back to first principles of “winning.” Ukraine’s war goals are to take back all territory under its control before February 22, 2022, and even further, to restore Crimea and the Donetsk to Ukrainian control. I think it’s reasonable to say those goals, unless Russia is fundamentally transformed or defeated, have no real path in the next year, or even two years.

Is there a path for Ukraine to “win” in the sense of not losing further territory to Russia? So far, the answer is maybe. During the winter campaign, Russia has made small gains, at great cost. But both sides are fighting an established trench campaign using 21st century unmanned weapons instead of WWI-era howitzers. They are really fighting to a standstill. The prospect of Ukraine breaking through into Russian-held territory in the Donbas seems unlikely, due to the lay of the land (swampy, muddy ground), the huge number of landmines spread by Russian forces, the complete destruction of buildings or other shelter that Ukrainians could use, and layers of anti-personnel and anti-tank defensive belts. It would take an overwhelming force, with deep air cover and missile defenses to even attempt a breakthrough.

Ukraine does not possess air mobile (paratrooper) capability, heavy airlift, or assets to mount a naval amphibious landing. Without those capabilities, there’s no military path to Ukraine’s primary war goals.

But “winning” seems to mean ending negotiations with certain assurances. There’s nothing in past agreements, Minsk II being the latest, preventing Ukraine from seeking E.U. or NATO membership. However, Ukraine had a law on the books making it “non-aligned,” which was passed back in 1994, in exchange for Russian and U.S. support for it to turn over its nuclear arsenal to Russia. After Russia’s 2014 betrayal of that agreement (and the U.S.’s abandonment of it, letting Russia take Crimea without firing a shot), Ukraine repealed the law, and sought a fast path to E.U. and NATO membership.

In 2017, the U.S. told Ukraine “we have your back” while it began the long process for joining the western alliances. Then in 2019, Zelensky was elected president, and President Donald Trump wanted something in exchange for having his back. Zelensky didn’t make a deal, and became Trump’s enemy. So Trump and his team are pressing maximum pain to Zelensky, pushing Russia’s early 2022 “Istanbul protocols” which Ukraine sees as a “capitulation document.” It would force Ukraine to go back to its “non-aligned” status, abandon NATO and E.U. membership aspirations, and ban any “foreign weapons or foreign military personnel.”

The price of a better deal seems to be Zelensky’s departure. Zelensky told the “Year 2025” forum “that he is ready to step down in the event of or to facilitate peace or immediate NATO membership for Ukraine.” He further said that when the war ends, he’s committed to keeping Ukraine a democracy and holding elections. While the war is being fought under martial law, Ukraine’s constitution prevents elections from being held, which Elon Musk and President Trump well know, yet they continue to ignore.

So what’s the truth?

Ukraine can’t win its war goals and Russia cannot be defeated by Ukraine. Ukraine could probably continue a war of attrition with Russia, and eventually get ground to dust a kilometer at a time, but not lose its territorial integrity. For how long? Nobody really knows, but it would likely be measured in years.

Zelensky could agree to step down and call for elections immediately after signing a cease-fire. But what would Trump and Musk offer in exchange, since Putin seems very focused on keeping Ukraine out of NATO. However, that may be the compromise everyone is heading toward.

That went long, so I will keep the rest short.

Trump is considering an executive order to absorb the U.S. Postal Service into the Department of Commerce, and dismiss the USPS Board of Governors, according to news reports. This is patently illegal. Either rule of law works in America, or it doesn’t.

I offered some praise to the Trump administration, for at least attempting to follow the law, meaning not trashing court orders, and allowing judges to review its actions. Musk’s personnel policy of “fire now, fix later” are mostly legal, and have largely been upheld by courts. Agree or not, it’s not dictator stuff.

However, dismissing the USPS governing board members is illegal, and cannot be done by the president. Former Postmaster General Louis DeJoy resigned when he saw the writing on the wall. Trump cannot replace him—he can name someone but the board has to appoint the PMG. If Trump gets the board to resign, he can name a new board (I believe the Senate has a role there), and they can appoint whoever Trump chooses as PMG. Trump could make himself Postmaster General if the board appointed him (there’s no law against it).

But going back to first principles. Is it the role of government to run itself like a business, where profit and “achievement” is the true measure, as Musk wants, or is it the role of government to, well, govern the people in a democratic republic the way the people wish to be governed?

The USPS has a goal of delivering First Class mail to every address in the country. That function is in fact older than the United States itself. Privatizing the USPS’s functions may make economic sense, but if it sacrifices the purpose of the organ doing the work, it’s fundamentally incompatible with the truth behind the actions.

I believe a court would challenge, and strike down, Trump’s actions if he signed an executive order absorbing the USPS into the Commerce Department, and dissolving the Board of Governors. We’ll see if the dictator stuff follows or not.

Don’t believe the lies from either side.

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