State of Contempt

The watchword is "contempt"

I hate watching State of the Union speeches. They are over-produced, too long, frequently boring, with no useful policy or vision in them. The applause is baked in, and with this president, so is the protest. It seems like everything in the Trump years is like Heidi Montag on MTV, fake to the point of extreme, but you can’t look away. President Trump warned us, “it’s going to be a long one.” I’d be in favor of Congress passing a resolution requiring the president to read the speech to an empty chamber, with cameras running and no-one in attendance, but we know this is not going to happen because the point of SOTU is spectacle, which happens to align almost perfectly with the point of the Trump presidency.

Image source: The White House via X

At his inauguration, Trump promised “America will reclaim its rightful place as the greatest, most powerful, most respected nation on earth, inspiring the awe and admiration of the entire world.” Over a year later, he will assert that he’s fulfilling that promise, but the facts do not line up to support it.

We’ve been snubbed by Greenland, Canada, most of Europe, Russia, China, South Korea, and we’re being led by the nose by Iran. It seems our only true ally right now is Israel, and that’s because they’re in a protracted war and need American support. We’ve deported 622,000 people, and you can’t tell me that all of them are violent criminals; I know this because the entire prison population of violent offenders is about 700,000. It would mean that an equal number of illegal immigrants was roaming the streets creating havoc. An additional 1.9 million people have voluntarily left the country. The reason many have left is that their one-time legal status was revoked by the government, many having only 60 days to wind up their affairs and depart.

The courts have done their best to turn down the heat, which has embroiled many people who, legally, should not have been deported. But the Trump administration has reportedly defied one in three judges who issue orders dealing with immigration. Judges are reportedly fed up with this, and one federal judge, Laura M. Provinzino of the Federal District Court for the District of Minnesota, has slapped a $500 a day civil contempt order on the government’s attorney, Matthew Isihara, a military judge advocate on loan to the Department of Homeland Security.

Contempt is the most appropriate word for this current time in America. The Trump administration has contempt for the courts, including the Supreme Court, when it rules against the president’s wishes. Many citizens have contempt for the Trump administration and the government itself. Those within the government have contempt for others, or for citizens. It seems like everyone in the U.S., media, politicians, law enforcement, the legal profession, and you and me, live under contempt every day.

I expect to hear a lot of contempt in Trump’s SOTU tonight, which makes me even less interested in hearing it. But I’ll probably tune in. One thing Trump is right about: we have a lot to talk about.

Ukraine has hit its fourth anniversary of not losing the country to Russia. The front has stabilized and now it’s a war of attrition, drone strikes, and pain. Some say the Russians are on the verge of collapse, and others say Ukraine will eventually fall due to lack of manpower and ammunition. I think they’re both wrong. Two determined enemies can fight for many years without losing. Europe is just interested enough in Ukraine not losing to keep them supplied. The U.S., despite our current stance, is also interested, because (and I hate to say it this way) there’s money to be made in war.

If Trump wants America to be the “greatest, most powerful, most respected nation on earth” then we have to be able to sell military gear to other countries, a thing at which we are especially adept. When other countries stop buying our gear, then we suffer. But our gear is still the best. I expect Trump will talk about Ukraine tonight. He is not a fan of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but I think the two might find some common ground.

Then there’s Iran. We have no legal basis to attack Iran. But Trump made a promise to the protesters who were slaughtered in the streets for daring to stand against the ayatollahs, to come to “their rescue.” If we don’t fulfill that promise, we are complicit in a way for 30,000 to 50,000 deaths. And if the regime ever does fall without our “push,” the Iranians would be fully justified to chant “Death to America!” because we have done a monstrous thing to them, and not for the first time.

Iran is not an easy target. It’s a large nation, nearly the size of Alaska, our largest state. It has advanced infrastructure, 90 million people, a standing army, many missiles and drones, including some that could harm our ships at sea. There is risk in going to war with Iran, as Gen. Dan Caine correctly informed Trump. Trump could have lobbed a few Tomahawk missiles at some IRGC facilities and called it good in fulfilling his “rescue” promise, but that’s not how Trump rolls. He wants a deal with the Iranians, to get their oil, to get them to stop threatening Israel with nuclear destruction, and to give them a chance to show some respect to America (meaning himself).

The ayatollahs will not deal. If they agree to a deal, they will break it. They will not stop trying to annihilate Israel, because they approach the world from a religious dogmatic standpoint. They believe in the Twelfth Imam and taking out Israel is part of their eschatology. Iran, under the current regime, will always pursue a nuclear weapon, because that frees them from the situation they’re now in—being bullied by America. Iran is aligned with Russia, North Korea, and China, who form a sort of axis against the free world. Any deal Trump achieves will not be worth the paper it’s written on. Trump himself derided the “Iran deal” or JCPOA because the Iranians broke it at will, but he might go for his own deal.

If we end up in a military conflict with Iran, the risks are tremendous. We will have tied up the majority of our flyable air assets, two carrier strike groups with attendant warships, submarines, and other logistical considerations. If there’s a time when China might decide to blockade Taiwan, this would be a convenient cover. If there’s a time when North Korea might decide to saber-rattle, this would be an opportunity for it. Israel would be instantly drawn into any war, which would strain relations so carefully crafted with our Arab friends.

And nations we’ve pissed off, like India, might not give us the kind of respect or support we want in roping Russia and China off.

Then again, we might triumph and boot the ayatollahs out of Tehran. Trump will not make that happen by talking tough in a speech, but I believe he will talk tough.

There’s lots of room for other topics, and I would wager the president will not stick to the teleprompter. There’s drugs, and Trump’s online bazzar, TrumpRx. There’s the Trump Gold Card, Trump Accounts, the Donald J. Trump United States Institute of Peace, the shuttered facility formerly known as the Kennedy Center for the Arts. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump tried to rename the Smithsonian after himself.

In any case, the ego is unchained, and Trump will expand every moment of the speech to reach every nook and cranny and fill it with his name. Never mind that groceries cost more than even in the Biden years, or that gas prices will probably spike to over $4 per gallon at the pump if we go to war with Iran (the Strait of Hormuz will undoubtedly be closed).

Never mind that millions of immigrants to the U.S. will still find themselves at risk of deportation, legal or not. Never mind that tariffs have increased the prices of many goods, without filling the coffers of the government. Never mind that our FBI Director likes to take trips around the world to party with his girlfriend, or the U.S. Olympic ice hockey team, using government jets and on the taxpayer’s dime. Never mind that Howard Lutnick and Steve Witkoff profit from their positions. It’s all part of the deal.

You won’t hear about those things tonight.

You will hear about witch hunts, the 2020 election being stolen (yes, still!), the terrible Justices at the Supreme Court, and how Trump intends to set tariffs under whatever law he can use, no matter what the judges say. You will hear about Mexico, and how terrible a place that is, but people who came from there need to go back to it. You will hear how those who oppose mass deportations, unlimited tariff authority, and Trump’s friends benefitting from their positions while his enemies get investigated, arrested, and charged, are domestic terrorists.

But mostly, from both sides of the aisle, you will hear contempt. It’s sad that we have come to this point, where the reigning emotion is contempt for each other. Maybe seeing it displayed so openly will open some eyes and hearts, and Americans will stop for a moment and have clarity. If not, November is going to be a very, very, tough month.

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