How the turn tables

And advice for Democrats

Sometimes the world can change quickly. That’s been the case lately.

It seems like only a few weeks ago I was reading stories about the dysfunctional Democratic Party. The Democratic Party isn’t necessarily less dysfunctional than it was last month, but the high level of dysfunction in the Republican Party has rapidly become more apparent. The shutdown has only been over for a few days, but it has already been forgotten. I seriously almost forgot to mention it here.

The depth of the Republican problem became apparent with the trouncing that Republicans received in the off-year elections two weeks ago, but Trump and the Republicans have had a bad week this week. Donald Trump was forced to back off from his tariff war amid a slowing economy and rising prices, effectively admitting what most of us knew all along: Trump tariffs are taxes and are being paid by Americans. The trade war is not over but Trump - and by extension, America - is losing.

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Trump’s lawfare campaign was also dealt an embarrassing setback when the Justice Department admitted that the full grand jury did not rushed indictment against former FBI director James Comey. After one indictment was rejected by the grand jury, a second, edited version was signed by the foreman without being reviewed by the full panel. Because the statute of limitations has now elapsed, the revelation dramatically increases the chances that the Comey prosecution, which was on shaky ground from the beginning, will die before it ever gets near a trial.

The error is yet another example of the amateurish behavior of Trump Administration officials. What we are seeing with everything from the Comey prosecution to DOGE to the remaking of the military to economic policy is what happens when a president staffs the executive branch with loyalists rather than hiring the best people.

It is telling that the most positive Trump story of the week was his diplomatic entreaties to Saudi Arabia, which involved feting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a Saudi royal behind the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi during Trump’s first term. That was it. The high point of Trump’s week

The capstone of the week was the collapse of congressional resistance to releasing the Epstein files (which still have not been released 304 days into Trump’s presidency). The rout came after two developments.

First, after weeks of delays, Mike Johnson was finally forced to allow Adelita Grijalva of Arizona to be sworn in after winning a special election way back in September. Together with most Democrats and a few brave Republicans, Grijalva tipped the scales on a discharge position that required a vote on releasing the files.

The second development was the release of a trove of Jeffrey Epstein’s emails by Democrats on the House Oversight Committee. Trump figured prominently in the emails (although others, including Democrats, were also implicated), with Epstein writing, Trump “knew about the girls.”

With passage of the House bill a fait accompli, Trump, fresh from accusing Marjorie Taylor Greene of treason for supporting the discharge petition, made a quick and shameless about face and urged Republicans to support the bill. The bill quickly passed both houses with more support than is usually seen for naming post offices or proclaiming national days of this or that. It was nearly unanimous.

Don’t expect the files to be released any time soon.

If Trump really wanted to make the files public, he could order the DOJ to redact and release them at any time. (Unlike the separate grand jury files, which are under a judicial seal). He has not done so and won’t. As much as he would like to veto the bill, he can’t.

Trump’s game is this: He wants to keep the files secret while not appearing to be keeping the files secret. He has been getting hammered for his handling of the files and is smart enough to know that they are political kryptonite.

Look for Trump to try to shift the focus to Democrats mentioned in the files like Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, and Stacy Plaskett, a delegate to Congress from the US Virgin Islands, who was revealed to be texting with Epstein during the 2019 congressional testimony of Michael Cohen. It should be noted that none of these people, including Donald Trump, have been shown to have broken laws by the emails.

One possible strategy of delay for Trump is to use his newly-ordered investigation of Epstein’s Democrat friends as a rationale for clamping down on the files. A loophole in the bill allows the DOJ to withhold information that pertains to active investigations.

Can he do that? Probably. Electing a corrupt president has consequences. But there will be a political price to pay.

For a long time, I thought that Trump and Epstein had an old and distant relationship. That belief has already been rendered obsolete by evidence that includes both the emails and Trump’s infamous birthday drawing, which Trump denied existed until it turned up. The drawing can be seen as either a poor caricature of a naked woman or an intentional representation of a young girl.

We don’t know what revelations are hidden within the Epstein files, but Trump probably does and he acts as though their release would be devastating. The Epstein files are not going to go away, and Trump is not going to voluntarily release them. For Democrats, they will be the gift that keeps on giving for as long as Trump remains a public figure.

Dick Morris used to say that the coverup is often worse than the scandal. In this case, Trump is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.

It is by no means a certainty, but for the first time, I’m wondering if Trump will complete his second term. As the Epstein files scandal grows, the economy slows, and Trump and his Administration become increasingly lawless and corrupt, the possibility grows that he will be forced to resign or that enough Republicans will desert him to make impeachment number three and removal a real threat.

As the Trump Administration collapses under the weight of its own incompetence and deceit, Democrats should remember that the country dislikes them nearly as much as it does MAGA. If the Democrats make the same mistake they made under Biden, namely assuming that a rejection of Republicans is an embrace of progressivism, their impending majority is likely to be short-lived.

The lesson that Democrats should take from the recent elections is not that America craves Zohran Mamdani, but that different candidates are needed in different places. A Mamdani might win in New York, especially when facing two other bad candidates, but New Jersey and Virginia need their own candidates that fit their own electorates.

That’s especially true in the South and Midwest. If Democrats want to make inroads into red, rural areas, they need to find moderates. The party needs to give red-state candidates room to run to the center on wedge issues like guns and abortion. As the saying goes, don’t be crazy.

I’ve suspected for a long time that first party that can control its fringe, rather than catering to it, could have a long-term majority. The Biden Democrats didn’t learn that. MAGA hasn’t learned it through two Trump Administrations. The current iteration of Trump government is far crazier than the first.

Will the next Democrat majority learn the lesson? My guess is probably not. The political landscape can change quickly, especially when politicians believe their own BS.

As Michael Scott famously pondered, “How the turn tables.”

UKRAINE STABBED IN BACK…AGAIN Anyone who thought that Trump had been won over to the side of the Ukrainian defenders was clearly not cynical enough. The Trump Administration dropped a figurative bomb with a new 28-point plan to end the war that reportedly involves [wait for it] Ukraine giving up territory and weapons. Ukraine and it’s supporters were reportedly surprised by the plan, but I’ll bet the Russians weren’t.

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