Did the direct attack by Iranian on Israel cross a Rubicam concerning a regional Mideast war? Does the Israeli War cabinet believe this to be a Rubicam line? What will the Israeli response be? What course will Biden take?
I know i am naive when it comes to the Middle East, but it seems to me there should be enough righteous players to act in concert with one another to intercede and squash those looking for another thousands years of war. We/they were headed in that direction before the Oct 7 attacks, which has been argued to be the reasoning behind Hamas launching it.
Perhaps it's time for a collective effort to find common ground between those who don't want missiles, drones and nuclear weapons flying overhead. It might just be time for the parties who are willing to begin to work towards the sometimes discussed Middle East NATO.
There will be no winners if this continues to escalate. My best guess is most of those involved understand this far better than i do.
The Islamic Republic responds with a large drone and missile launch that is mostly shot down en route or hits empty desert.
Sounds like they both had a turn, and Israel got a win - to say nothing of the narrative assist it gives Israel after this past 6 months of war in Gaza.
Israel should accept the win and the opportunities they have to improve their overall standing and situation.
That’s western thinking. Also, do you believe the ayatollahs when they say they intend to wipe Israel from the map? Israel has never threatened to do that to any nation (some nut cases in Netanyahu’s government excepted). Israel’s actions have been driven by Iran’s threats, to prevent them from acting on their threats. If Iran didn’t make the threats or Israel didn’t believe them, there is no need to kill anyone. Iran can absorb a few nukes on its territory if it can detonate one in Tel Aviv, which would end Israel. Iran must never have nukes, and Israel will kill, and spend blood and treasure to prevent it.
Nut cases to whom Netanyahu is beholden, who want a wider war to maintain their hold on power - 'cause they know they're gonna get slaughtered at the ballot box.
Not really, 'cause the IR is not suicidal. They, like Russia in Eurasia, want to be the dominant power in the region - and Israel is the real economic powerhouse, which threatens that goal. It's really a pure political issue, seen by how Egypt and Jordan currently are and how Saudi Arabia and others will soon be aligned with Israel - as long as Israel doesn't totally f*ck it up.
Also, Russia threatens nuclear destruction all the time but has yet to launch a single nuke our way. The IR can bluster all they want: they are masters at psychological warfare. We and Israel shouldn't let them goad us into doing as they wish.
Israel has limited capability to wage war on Iran ('cause it's far away, about 9x more populous, and with a more advanced military than their antagonistic neighbors), and while it may be "Western thinking" it is also true that there are smarter ways to go about limiting the Islamic Republic - namely by making a coalition of anti-IR nations to eliminate their proxies and strangle their influence.
You know what would be great? If Trump hadn't dissolved the nuclear agreement with the IR in exchange for nothing. Y'all can deride it all you like: said agreement did exist and to all indicators was being followed until Trump unilaterally dissolved it.
You're ignoring the Iranian nut cases who believe in their religious extremism and hold that Jews must be exterminated. They've put quite a bit of money and planning into slaughtering Jews for this to be some kind of economic power play.
I am willing to hear arguments of the effectiveness of the JCPOA and the wisdom of Trump exiting it. I do think Iran was cheating and using the UN to cover its cheating. I believe Israel (Mossad) would not risk exposing a significant part of its Iranian spy network (which is still quite formidable) to literally steal a truckload of evidence from Tehran on how they are cheating if this was for show. I suppose we won't know until Iran tests a nuke. And then all bets are off. I believe Israel would expend an enormous amount of its military and clandestine capability to prevent that. The U.S. has previously done the same, though I think Obama put too much trust in the Iranian regime.
Those nutcases aren't in power, and unlikely to be.
Feel free to believe or think as you wish re the JCPOA. The thing that makes no sense for leaving it is that if in fact the IR was cheating on the agreement then we'd have every right to respond accordingly alongside the other signatories.
What was the point of leaving the JCPOA, beyond Trump just loathing Obama? What benefit did it bring to do so?
It wasn't for "nothing" that Trump withdrew the USA from the JPCOA. Trump was then able to reinstate sanctions against Iran thereby depriving the Regime of billions of dollars used to fund the terrorist aggression they sponsored.
There was plenty of evidence of cheating. The only value of the JPCOA was that it might increase the time it would take for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon by a year or less. Of course, Biden promptly canceled the sanctions, and we are now seeing the results. Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
The average Israeli would not consider events of the last 6 months a success. A response to the Iran attack will happen, because to not respond would be considered a greater security risk for the future.
The events are not viewed as a success because of Netanyahu and his government's lack of planning and poor decision making during the last 6 months (or more, if you consider the decision to ignore warnings of the Oct attack and general elevation/maintenance of Hamas over the years).
If the last 6 months are not a success because of Netanyahu and his government, then responding to the Islamic Republic's response to the Israeli attack on their personnel in Syria is likely a poor choice as well.
And it is important to remember: it was Israel that struck IR personnel first - reportedly in a consulate, though I've heard it was a neighboring building. That makes Israel the instigator if this leads to a wider regional conflict, and that's not good for Israel long-term.
They need to play this smartly, and that means making allies across the region - which will involve resisting the temptation to respond immediately, and to resist the desires of the ultra-nationalists that want to cling to power.
Israel struck a chief planner of the October 7th slaughter. The organization he commands is on the U.S. terrorist list. He is a valid and legal target if President Biden signed a Finding to eliminate him. The fact he was in an Iranian consulate in Syria is not a mitigating factor in our legal basis for eliminating him. Neither should any of those grant immunity if Israel chooses to do the same. Nobody tried to impeach Trump for eliminating Qassem Soleimani, who was commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force, i.e. Mohammad Reza Zahedi’s boss. Israel had every justification for going after Zahedi.
That the attack occurred in the consulate is an important point that must be recognized, the justification for striking said IRGC commander notwithstanding. Do you think it would be appropriate for the US to bomb a consulate if a desired target is inside? If yes, then ostensibly it's OK for any other country to do so too - which seems like really bad precedent to set. On the contrary, I think the US would not strike a target within a consulate: instead, we'd have intelligence sources monitoring said target for a time they'd leave and then strike their vehicle. Israel could have done the same: that they chose not to shows more poor decision making.
Will the Iranian calculations override their fanaticism? Religious crazies can be unpredictable. I wonder if the theocracy can piss off enough of the citizens to get the boot or if their enforcement elements can stem any rebellion. I've worked with a number of Iranian immigrants, and they all hated the theocracy. One was a nuclear engineer and a pilot in their air force who was smart enough to know that he did not have to land his plane in the same country where he took off. Many are devout Muslims in most ways. They did not eat pork, but they would drink vodka. Maybe that's why they are in the USA.
It would be wonderful to see the Iranian regime overthrown. However keep this in mind while talking to Iranian expats (I know many of them, wonderful people, and they all hate the regime). The ones who made it out of Iran are generally the ones who don’t want to live under the current regime. In other words, you’re experiencing survivor bias. There’s plenty of Iranians who live fine under the regime and choose to stay in Iran. There’s some extremists who love the regime but live here for other reasons. Those are the ones the FBI needs to watch.
The Islamic Republic (using the regime name because it's important to separate the government from the people of Iran) are both evil and rational. You see this in their "responses": announced, telegraphed, and often nowhere near as big as they could reasonably be (though the attack on US personnel during the Trump admin post-Solemeini assassination did affect over 100 US servicemen).
There likely are fanatics around, but it's a mistake to think they are all raving lunatics.
Did the direct attack by Iranian on Israel cross a Rubicam concerning a regional Mideast war? Does the Israeli War cabinet believe this to be a Rubicam line? What will the Israeli response be? What course will Biden take?
I know i am naive when it comes to the Middle East, but it seems to me there should be enough righteous players to act in concert with one another to intercede and squash those looking for another thousands years of war. We/they were headed in that direction before the Oct 7 attacks, which has been argued to be the reasoning behind Hamas launching it.
Perhaps it's time for a collective effort to find common ground between those who don't want missiles, drones and nuclear weapons flying overhead. It might just be time for the parties who are willing to begin to work towards the sometimes discussed Middle East NATO.
There will be no winners if this continues to escalate. My best guess is most of those involved understand this far better than i do.
You would think so. Righteousness is a variable, dependent on religion and values. Sometimes the gap is just too wide for common sense to span.
Israel kills IRGC personnel in Syria.
The Islamic Republic responds with a large drone and missile launch that is mostly shot down en route or hits empty desert.
Sounds like they both had a turn, and Israel got a win - to say nothing of the narrative assist it gives Israel after this past 6 months of war in Gaza.
Israel should accept the win and the opportunities they have to improve their overall standing and situation.
That’s western thinking. Also, do you believe the ayatollahs when they say they intend to wipe Israel from the map? Israel has never threatened to do that to any nation (some nut cases in Netanyahu’s government excepted). Israel’s actions have been driven by Iran’s threats, to prevent them from acting on their threats. If Iran didn’t make the threats or Israel didn’t believe them, there is no need to kill anyone. Iran can absorb a few nukes on its territory if it can detonate one in Tel Aviv, which would end Israel. Iran must never have nukes, and Israel will kill, and spend blood and treasure to prevent it.
Nut cases to whom Netanyahu is beholden, who want a wider war to maintain their hold on power - 'cause they know they're gonna get slaughtered at the ballot box.
Not really, 'cause the IR is not suicidal. They, like Russia in Eurasia, want to be the dominant power in the region - and Israel is the real economic powerhouse, which threatens that goal. It's really a pure political issue, seen by how Egypt and Jordan currently are and how Saudi Arabia and others will soon be aligned with Israel - as long as Israel doesn't totally f*ck it up.
Also, Russia threatens nuclear destruction all the time but has yet to launch a single nuke our way. The IR can bluster all they want: they are masters at psychological warfare. We and Israel shouldn't let them goad us into doing as they wish.
Israel has limited capability to wage war on Iran ('cause it's far away, about 9x more populous, and with a more advanced military than their antagonistic neighbors), and while it may be "Western thinking" it is also true that there are smarter ways to go about limiting the Islamic Republic - namely by making a coalition of anti-IR nations to eliminate their proxies and strangle their influence.
You know what would be great? If Trump hadn't dissolved the nuclear agreement with the IR in exchange for nothing. Y'all can deride it all you like: said agreement did exist and to all indicators was being followed until Trump unilaterally dissolved it.
You're ignoring the Iranian nut cases who believe in their religious extremism and hold that Jews must be exterminated. They've put quite a bit of money and planning into slaughtering Jews for this to be some kind of economic power play.
I am willing to hear arguments of the effectiveness of the JCPOA and the wisdom of Trump exiting it. I do think Iran was cheating and using the UN to cover its cheating. I believe Israel (Mossad) would not risk exposing a significant part of its Iranian spy network (which is still quite formidable) to literally steal a truckload of evidence from Tehran on how they are cheating if this was for show. I suppose we won't know until Iran tests a nuke. And then all bets are off. I believe Israel would expend an enormous amount of its military and clandestine capability to prevent that. The U.S. has previously done the same, though I think Obama put too much trust in the Iranian regime.
Those nutcases aren't in power, and unlikely to be.
Feel free to believe or think as you wish re the JCPOA. The thing that makes no sense for leaving it is that if in fact the IR was cheating on the agreement then we'd have every right to respond accordingly alongside the other signatories.
What was the point of leaving the JCPOA, beyond Trump just loathing Obama? What benefit did it bring to do so?
It wasn't for "nothing" that Trump withdrew the USA from the JPCOA. Trump was then able to reinstate sanctions against Iran thereby depriving the Regime of billions of dollars used to fund the terrorist aggression they sponsored.
There was plenty of evidence of cheating. The only value of the JPCOA was that it might increase the time it would take for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon by a year or less. Of course, Biden promptly canceled the sanctions, and we are now seeing the results. Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
The average Israeli would not consider events of the last 6 months a success. A response to the Iran attack will happen, because to not respond would be considered a greater security risk for the future.
The events are not viewed as a success because of Netanyahu and his government's lack of planning and poor decision making during the last 6 months (or more, if you consider the decision to ignore warnings of the Oct attack and general elevation/maintenance of Hamas over the years).
If the last 6 months are not a success because of Netanyahu and his government, then responding to the Islamic Republic's response to the Israeli attack on their personnel in Syria is likely a poor choice as well.
And it is important to remember: it was Israel that struck IR personnel first - reportedly in a consulate, though I've heard it was a neighboring building. That makes Israel the instigator if this leads to a wider regional conflict, and that's not good for Israel long-term.
They need to play this smartly, and that means making allies across the region - which will involve resisting the temptation to respond immediately, and to resist the desires of the ultra-nationalists that want to cling to power.
Israel struck a chief planner of the October 7th slaughter. The organization he commands is on the U.S. terrorist list. He is a valid and legal target if President Biden signed a Finding to eliminate him. The fact he was in an Iranian consulate in Syria is not a mitigating factor in our legal basis for eliminating him. Neither should any of those grant immunity if Israel chooses to do the same. Nobody tried to impeach Trump for eliminating Qassem Soleimani, who was commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force, i.e. Mohammad Reza Zahedi’s boss. Israel had every justification for going after Zahedi.
That the attack occurred in the consulate is an important point that must be recognized, the justification for striking said IRGC commander notwithstanding. Do you think it would be appropriate for the US to bomb a consulate if a desired target is inside? If yes, then ostensibly it's OK for any other country to do so too - which seems like really bad precedent to set. On the contrary, I think the US would not strike a target within a consulate: instead, we'd have intelligence sources monitoring said target for a time they'd leave and then strike their vehicle. Israel could have done the same: that they chose not to shows more poor decision making.
Will the Iranian calculations override their fanaticism? Religious crazies can be unpredictable. I wonder if the theocracy can piss off enough of the citizens to get the boot or if their enforcement elements can stem any rebellion. I've worked with a number of Iranian immigrants, and they all hated the theocracy. One was a nuclear engineer and a pilot in their air force who was smart enough to know that he did not have to land his plane in the same country where he took off. Many are devout Muslims in most ways. They did not eat pork, but they would drink vodka. Maybe that's why they are in the USA.
It would be wonderful to see the Iranian regime overthrown. However keep this in mind while talking to Iranian expats (I know many of them, wonderful people, and they all hate the regime). The ones who made it out of Iran are generally the ones who don’t want to live under the current regime. In other words, you’re experiencing survivor bias. There’s plenty of Iranians who live fine under the regime and choose to stay in Iran. There’s some extremists who love the regime but live here for other reasons. Those are the ones the FBI needs to watch.
The Islamic Republic (using the regime name because it's important to separate the government from the people of Iran) are both evil and rational. You see this in their "responses": announced, telegraphed, and often nowhere near as big as they could reasonably be (though the attack on US personnel during the Trump admin post-Solemeini assassination did affect over 100 US servicemen).
There likely are fanatics around, but it's a mistake to think they are all raving lunatics.