You forget that the Mullahs came to power against one of the more potent regimes in the area and without a major military force behind them. Supposedly, the Shah lost his throne when he lost the merchants, but there is no real telling where these and other groups stand today. There are indications that the authorities have lost the Street, but how much violence would it take to reestablish control? And would the Iranian people support another round of killing on that scale?
Your take is surprisingly even-handed here, but it’s still just one week into the war. And nearly all the “experts” are projecting from ill-supported data and cherry-picked pseudo-facts to assert the precise outcome they would have predicted in a total vacuum.
No one really has a clue, but it’s hard to imagine a future for anyone involved that could be worse than the recent past.
I've long supported Israel and their plight. I also think the vast majority of American's were in that same camp. I know there has been and is a loud contingent group of "hate the Jews," but their bluster is more from their shouting than their numbers.
With that out of the way, i think/am concerned the tipping point of that support is directly in our face. Gaza/Hamas was a long and ugly struggle. Far too many innocents died. Don't want to debate why, i get it.
The problem is the Iran bombing/non-war/no regime change/they helped rig the 2020 elections is becoming a bridge too far. The school bombing was an in-your-face act and pretending Iran did it was all too familiar; even though the evidence points to us.
I awoke the other morning, after trump vowed to blow Iran off the face of the earth, questioning how much longer we should be involved in helping Bibi Netanyahu. I know, they are fighting for their survival, but at what cost to us and the rest of the world?
Bibi and trump are all too similar. We know this and yet here we are. A true tipping point for a good many of us.
I think Trump and Netanyahu miscalculated. They assumed assassinating Khameini (Sr.) would “decapitate” the government. What has become very clear though is that the Islamic Republic was in fact very ready for this and is extremely decentralized. Even the hated Basij is organized in cells of 5.
A war that had ill defined goals from the get go (at least for the United Staes) is now unwinnable (if the goal was actually regime change). We’ll eventually redefine ambiguous goals in a way to declare victory and retreat…. But no victory will be achieved. We will come out looking worse and the world economy (and even our own as the cost at the pump passes through to everything) will be weaker. The curse of wars in a region we ill understand will continue.
I give them more intelligence than that. Netanyahu certainly knows the details of Iran’s government and succession plans. I think the partnership between Israel and the U.S. on this will strain the longer the war continues in this form. Israel did not miscalculate. Trump may have miscalculated on Israel AND Iran.
Thanks for your robust coverage of this.
Excellent analysis. In the end it is the unknown unknowns that often git you where you don’t want to be got.
You forget that the Mullahs came to power against one of the more potent regimes in the area and without a major military force behind them. Supposedly, the Shah lost his throne when he lost the merchants, but there is no real telling where these and other groups stand today. There are indications that the authorities have lost the Street, but how much violence would it take to reestablish control? And would the Iranian people support another round of killing on that scale?
Your take is surprisingly even-handed here, but it’s still just one week into the war. And nearly all the “experts” are projecting from ill-supported data and cherry-picked pseudo-facts to assert the precise outcome they would have predicted in a total vacuum.
No one really has a clue, but it’s hard to imagine a future for anyone involved that could be worse than the recent past.
I've long supported Israel and their plight. I also think the vast majority of American's were in that same camp. I know there has been and is a loud contingent group of "hate the Jews," but their bluster is more from their shouting than their numbers.
With that out of the way, i think/am concerned the tipping point of that support is directly in our face. Gaza/Hamas was a long and ugly struggle. Far too many innocents died. Don't want to debate why, i get it.
The problem is the Iran bombing/non-war/no regime change/they helped rig the 2020 elections is becoming a bridge too far. The school bombing was an in-your-face act and pretending Iran did it was all too familiar; even though the evidence points to us.
I awoke the other morning, after trump vowed to blow Iran off the face of the earth, questioning how much longer we should be involved in helping Bibi Netanyahu. I know, they are fighting for their survival, but at what cost to us and the rest of the world?
Bibi and trump are all too similar. We know this and yet here we are. A true tipping point for a good many of us.
Re: the school bombing...
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/03/lies-damned-lies-and-journalism.php
I think Trump and Netanyahu miscalculated. They assumed assassinating Khameini (Sr.) would “decapitate” the government. What has become very clear though is that the Islamic Republic was in fact very ready for this and is extremely decentralized. Even the hated Basij is organized in cells of 5.
A war that had ill defined goals from the get go (at least for the United Staes) is now unwinnable (if the goal was actually regime change). We’ll eventually redefine ambiguous goals in a way to declare victory and retreat…. But no victory will be achieved. We will come out looking worse and the world economy (and even our own as the cost at the pump passes through to everything) will be weaker. The curse of wars in a region we ill understand will continue.
I give them more intelligence than that. Netanyahu certainly knows the details of Iran’s government and succession plans. I think the partnership between Israel and the U.S. on this will strain the longer the war continues in this form. Israel did not miscalculate. Trump may have miscalculated on Israel AND Iran.