Really neat story. I will pick on one item. Trump isn't leading in the swing states. It's basically a tossup in all of them. Trump leads in the RCP average while Harris leads in the 538.
Hey Steve; the trips sounds like a beauty, for both you and the boys. Just curious: How do you handle explaining the magnificence of what you saw when laid alongside Jan 6 being called "a day of love."
I think something that is missed in a lot of the analysis is that Harris is ultimately trying to do something difficult: be the effective incumbent during the post-COVID inflationary period and get re-elected.
The other developed democracies all saw their incumbents lose: that Harris is in a position to win is due to Trump having been selected as the GOP nominee. If the GOP had selected DeSantis or Haley, we'd be expecting a GOP victory with little doubt - possibly even a clean-sweep of POTUS/Senate/House.
I think a wider discussion of the Electoral College is warranted, but perhaps not under this post. Something for those to consider while we wait for something more dedicated:
- The Electoral College was a compromise to get the Constitution ratified.
- The Founders were not infallible.
- The EC has never operated as the Founders designed it (all unpledged delegates that could vote how they pleased).
- The EC as it operates today just moves the focus from the population at large to a handful of cities (like Philadelphia and Atlanta).
I know y'all like to talk about Red and Blue states as if those are monoliths, but reality is that there's a mix of partisans in every state - and the minority in those states effectively have their votes not matter under the EC. Without it, the millions of GOP votes in California would matter; the millions of Democratic votes in Texas would matter; and really, everyone's vote would matter.
If anything, the EC depresses turnout because it effectively disenfranchises voters - why vote if your vote doesn't matter? That's where we end up having what is actually a minority elect a president: Biden got ~33% of eligible voters in 2020, Trump got ~28% of eligible voters in 2016. We had a number of recent elections where eligible voter turnout was barely over 50% - so POTUS was elected by ~25% of the VEP.
Steve, interesting take on next steps for Israel. How much would Jordan, Saudi, UAE, et al, need to be on-board to have enough regional buy-in? My first guess was that a unilateral Marshall Plan by Israel would more likely turn into grift by the recipients. You seem to have a different intuition on that. Curious as to your take.
Steve, Harris has monumentally lied her way through her campaign as well(see what I did there). She has lied about her record as VP, lied about her stances on many issues, lied about Donald Trump on certain things, not to mention her plagiarism of a speech. Oh, and lied about Biden's mental health. Just trying to push you to be more consistent.
Happy birthday, Steve!
Really neat story. I will pick on one item. Trump isn't leading in the swing states. It's basically a tossup in all of them. Trump leads in the RCP average while Harris leads in the 538.
Depends on what poll you believe. But you’re right. The polls are split.
Hey Steve; the trips sounds like a beauty, for both you and the boys. Just curious: How do you handle explaining the magnificence of what you saw when laid alongside Jan 6 being called "a day of love."
I let the kids think critically for themselves. They understand.
I think something that is missed in a lot of the analysis is that Harris is ultimately trying to do something difficult: be the effective incumbent during the post-COVID inflationary period and get re-elected.
The other developed democracies all saw their incumbents lose: that Harris is in a position to win is due to Trump having been selected as the GOP nominee. If the GOP had selected DeSantis or Haley, we'd be expecting a GOP victory with little doubt - possibly even a clean-sweep of POTUS/Senate/House.
I think a wider discussion of the Electoral College is warranted, but perhaps not under this post. Something for those to consider while we wait for something more dedicated:
- The Electoral College was a compromise to get the Constitution ratified.
- The Founders were not infallible.
- The EC has never operated as the Founders designed it (all unpledged delegates that could vote how they pleased).
- The EC as it operates today just moves the focus from the population at large to a handful of cities (like Philadelphia and Atlanta).
I know y'all like to talk about Red and Blue states as if those are monoliths, but reality is that there's a mix of partisans in every state - and the minority in those states effectively have their votes not matter under the EC. Without it, the millions of GOP votes in California would matter; the millions of Democratic votes in Texas would matter; and really, everyone's vote would matter.
If anything, the EC depresses turnout because it effectively disenfranchises voters - why vote if your vote doesn't matter? That's where we end up having what is actually a minority elect a president: Biden got ~33% of eligible voters in 2020, Trump got ~28% of eligible voters in 2016. We had a number of recent elections where eligible voter turnout was barely over 50% - so POTUS was elected by ~25% of the VEP.
Steve, interesting take on next steps for Israel. How much would Jordan, Saudi, UAE, et al, need to be on-board to have enough regional buy-in? My first guess was that a unilateral Marshall Plan by Israel would more likely turn into grift by the recipients. You seem to have a different intuition on that. Curious as to your take.
Steve, Harris has monumentally lied her way through her campaign as well(see what I did there). She has lied about her record as VP, lied about her stances on many issues, lied about Donald Trump on certain things, not to mention her plagiarism of a speech. Oh, and lied about Biden's mental health. Just trying to push you to be more consistent.
Name me a politician who doesn't lie about many issues or their own record.