Let's be honest, what does Kamala need to win?

What matters, what doesn't matter, and what wins the race

At least President Joe Biden was consistent. He originally said he only ran for president at his advanced age to keep Donald Trump from winning a second term. And now, Biden has stepped away from his campaign because his party told him it is necessary to keep Trump from winning a second term. Now the torch passes to Vice President Kamala Harris.

Joe Biden, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The polls show that Harris does better against Trump than Biden, but that’s to be expected because Biden’s ship has foundered and cannot be righted. The July 22 FiveThirtyEight Morning Consult poll shows Trump ahead by 2 points nationally. In battleground states, the latest polls (some from before Biden’s announcement) show:

• North Carolina: Trump +4

• Michigan: Trump +5

• Georgia: Trump +5

• Pennsylvania: Trump +4

• Wisconsin: Even (from July 13-16)

• Arizona: Trump +6

This is really the starting line, because Harris needs the next month to cement her base and standing. I want to take an honest look at her, and what she needs to do to change the outcome, because if the election was held today, she’d lose.

Harris’s assets

Kamala Harris’s greatest asset is not being Donald Trump. The entire reason she’s running is to keep Trump out of the White House. It’s a very short-sighted goal, but it has to be focused.

Her second greatest asset is not being Joe Biden. At 59 (Harris is two days younger than me!), she’s the appropriate age for the office of POTUS. Harris has her cognitive ability intact, which eliminates the biggest threat Democrats had in keeping Trump out of the White House.

Harris’s third asset—and it is an asset—is being relatively invisible for the past four years. She made a tiny splash in 2020, helped Biden capture some suburban housewives who might have stayed home otherwise, and since then, has disappeared from the lens of the average voter. For Republican partisans, her gaffes and failures loomed large, but really only as fodder for memes. For Democrats, she was ignored, as a vice president should be (as Cactus Jack Nance Gardner famously said, the office is “not worth a bucket of warm spit”—or a worse word depending on which quote you use).

Harris’s liabilities

If being invisible is an asset, it’s also a liability. The anti-Trump forces, including Democrat partisans, are fired up at not having Biden in the race. So naturally, they’re happy to paint Harris as a savior. But the question is, who gets to define Harris first? If not Harris, then having a blank slate could be a problem.

California is a liability. Everyone knows Democrats will win California’s electoral votes. But can a California left-wing progressive win swing states?

Law and order. Yes, it’s a liability. If Harris was running on her own, being a former prosecutor would be a plus. But Harris is running against Donald Trump, who has endured the most aggressive, ambitious, and overreaching prosecutors ever to botch (or railroad) a case against him. Will Harris be painted as a friend of law enforcement, or a pastiche of Jack Smith, Alvin Bragg, and Fani Willis? I know how Trump will paint her.

Likability. In 2020, Harris could not maintain a consistent message, and part of the reason is she didn’t get along with her own staff. She may continue to use her sister Maya Harris to run the campaign, or rely on her longtime campaign manager Juan Rodriguez. This would be to the great consternation of the Biden camp, but the Biden camp would walk barefoot on glass to help keep Trump out of the White House. It’s hard to like someone who breeds infighting, and Harris, as VP, is known for that.

One hard fast rule in this campaign is: “Don’t be Hillary.”

Harris’s path to win

First, unity. I think the Democrats have that one going for them so far. Already, within two days of Biden’s announcement, Harris has secured enough delegates to the Democratic National Convention to assure her the nomination. There should be no floor fight, brokered convention, or smoke-filled rooms in Chicago. It has to be a coronation.

Second, focus. This will be harder. The focus has to be on Trump. Keeping Trump out of office, because Trump is a felon, a crook, and a conspiracy flinger. This is the chief things that matters. Policies and planks, statements, and issues are less important than the disqualification of the Republican nominee.

Third, Biden. Trump-supporting ads are already running in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, noting that Harris was “in on it” meaning the lies and coverup of Biden’s mental decline. President Biden must address the nation quickly, and assure that he is able to run the executive branch until January 20, 2025—that’s not going to be an easy or risk-free task, because most people don’t buy it.

But Harris has to laud Biden as the elder statesman, while saying she is available to work with the president, becoming a sort of co-incumbent. It could work. Having Harris at cabinet meetings, and briefings, attending press conferences and the like would elevate her status while assuring voters the nation is not being run on autopilot.

Fourth, image. Kamala Harris has a chance to build her image in a way that goes beyond being a Black woman, which everyone knows is why Biden selected her. I hope she’s been practicing how to give an effective speech, which historically has been a struggle for her.

Fifth, policy. Harris has been more critical of Israel than Biden regarding the Gaza war, despite being married to a Jewish man. On abortion, Harris has the pulse of the Democratic Party, while Trump does not have the pulse of his evangelical core. On immigration, Harris’s time in California and her approach to law and order could help her. She has admitted the immigration system is “broken.” Ideas on how to fix it—reasonable ideas that don’t include mass deportation—will help reluctant voters pull the lever for her.

A running mate, gaffes, and what matters least

I believe a running mate is not a net positive for the Harris campaign. With Trump, it became an episode of The Bachelor, with J.D. Vance getting the rose. That matters because Trump’s selection determined the future of the MAGA-GOP movement. But with Harris, the goal is to stop Trump, not end MAGA.

Whoever Harris picks as VP will be in the no-Trump column, and that’s baked in. No unity candidate (such as Sen. Mitt Romney, or Sen. Joe Manchin) would make any difference there. A hometown son like Gov. Josh Shapiro or Gov. Andy Beshear might help a little, but I don’t think it will be enough of a bump to swing a state. The role of a running mate is to get out in public and build the image of the top of the ticket—Harris. Whoever she picks, it should be someone who can offer energy and clear communication.

Gaffes. This is always a risk. But really, Trump makes gaffes all the time. He couldn’t even get through a 3,000-word acceptance speech (a well-written one!) at his nominating convention, without bloating it to a 12,000-word meandering riff. Harris needs to trust her campaign staffers, stay on message, and read what they give her.

What matters least: conspiracies, kooks, and replies to trolls. As David Thornton wrote yesterday, what voters want is a return to boring. Voters are yearning for something conventional, predictable, and steady. Coming out of the gate with an explosion of anti-conspiracy invective just empowers the trolls. It doesn’t matter who the trolls are: Elon Musk is a good example. Just ignore them, or better, say that when elected, Tesla can have the same treatment as other green companies, and Musk is welcome to participate in a Harris administration helping to set policy.

Summary: boring, focused, competent wins

Donald Trump is at the peak of his favorability. He doesn’t crack 45%, while his unfavorable is always above 50%. Not being Trump takes the ceiling off Harris’s potential. Not being Biden removes the anchors from a Democratic Party campaign. Harris doesn’t have to win voters: she only needs to beat Trump, which is a much easier task.

But Trump has some powerful assets: complete command of the news cycle (except this week), a committed core of voters, sympathy from being shot, and an almost preternatural way of saying just enough true things that events tend to help him. The wildcard is always events, isn’t it?

Oh, and one more thing: it would help if Harris got Kimberly Cheatle fired from the Secret Service—or encouraged her to quit.

There’s enough time for Harris to win the election. President Biden might say this is the beginning of the transition to President Harris, treating her like a President-elect. That might be presumptuous, but it is boring and steady. In this race, that’s what it will take to win.

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