Netanyahu and the Zelensky chair

Trump is pushing for a Gaza cease-fire and a new Iran deal, he has some powerful incentives

It’s Monday, July 7, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will arrive at the White House at 6:30 p.m. today. He will be greeted by President Donald Trump at the South Portico in a closed-to-the-press ceremony, and the two men will dine together in the Blue Room, also no press. The president’s public schedule does not, as of this morning, include any public remarks or press statements.

Dan Scavino, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

It’s likely Trump and Netanyahu want to have some private conversation time together, although they’ve been on the phone multiple times over last few months, as Israel dealt with its enemy Iran’s nuclear program, and the U.S. contributed a critical piece toward that objective. What Trump wants is a cease fire in Gaza, along with some kind of longer-term path to a solution of the seemingly insoluble problem of the Palestinians. What Netanyahu wants is security guarantees for weapons production and supply, and a free hand to deal with Israel’s foes, without risking his own fragile political coalition.

What Netanyahu does not want is to sit in the Zelensky chair, surrounded by Trump’s inner circle of Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, forced to play the game of offering tribute and giving his “please” and “thank you” to Trump like a capo before his don. The Israeli PM is far too clever and politically agile to agree to such a public taming, so the men will have private time, and a dinner without too much press coverage.

While President Joe Biden used all sticks and no carrots to get Netanyahu to fall into line with U.S. interests (as Biden saw them) after October 7, 2023, Trump has quite a lot of treasure on the table to trade, or at least it appears he may have it. On the day before the July 4th holiday, while the media was obsessing over the OBBBA passage in Congress, Trump secretly met with Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman, the kingdom’s defense minister, the younger brother—under 40—of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Prince Khalid, known as KBS, is a former fighter pilot who became the ambassador to the U.S. during Trump’s first term after a back injury prevented him from flying.

Fox News’ Bret Baier learned of the meeting from White House sources. The topics discussed were reportedly the Gaza situation negotiating the release of the remaining living hostages, or returning the remains of the dead ones. Iran was also discussed. On the table is normalization of relations between the Saudi kingdom and Israel. This was to be the crown jewel of the Abraham Accords which were signed during Trump’s first term, then shelved during the Biden years. One of the objectives of the October 7th massacre was to permanently ditch the path between Saudi Arabia and Israel having normalized relations. Obviously, that plan totally backfired, and Saudi Arabia has become one of the biggest winners in Israel’s “jungle rules” war that largely dismantled Iran’s proxies and has degraded Iran’s and the Houthis in Yemen’s capabilities to interfere with Saudi oil production and shipping.

De-escalating the war between Iran and Israel, which threatened the critical Strait of Hormuz, is one of Saudi Arabia’s main wants. To show good faith, OPEC+ has increased its production plan to 548,000 barrels per day for August, even in the face of lower summer oil prices. This has a calming effect on the oil market, and signals the members’ commitment to some kind of stability. I should note that OPEC+ includes Russia, which is doing its best to rehabilitate itself in the world, even as it increases deadly attacks on Ukraine.

In exchange for this deal, Israel will be expected to agree and rush to finalize at least a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, and likely turn over humanitarian aid efforts to a third party, if not Hamas itself. Israel’s tight control over aid, to assuage its fear of Hamas smuggling weapons, and to weaken the organization’s control over the civilian population, has become a nightmare in public relations, though that’s not anything new to Israel regarding its public image. Whatever a ceasefire means, it will likely have some risk to Israel, as Hamas will certainly take the opportunity to regroup, rearm, and reassert control over Gaza’s civilians, as well as prosecuting its case for IDF war crimes in the friendly media.

It also means political risk for Netanyahu, who may face a far-right wing revolt in his coalition government by ultra-religious Jews and others who believe Israel should prosecute the war to total occupation of Gaza, and complete dismantling of Hamas, by not capitulating any points while the hostages are still held by that group. Trump will have to offer some assistance, possibly brokered by the Saudis, to get the hostages back. And it will also be a very fragile ceasefire, since it’s likely there are elements of Hamas and its cells that are not under positive command and control, and might take potshots or launch rockets at Israel opportunistically or to try to purposely kill the ceasefire.

A lasting ceasefire in Gaza and some kind of deal involving Iran would be a boon to Israel, whose economy has been suffering due to the load of having a mostly reserve military fighting for over a year. The loss of productivity, the threat of missiles in civilian cities, and the hit to tourism has been felt in every corner of Israel. The need to get back to some semblance of normal is great and shared among Israelis. But the need for closure and to recover hostages, or the remains of those who perished, is also near the top of Israelis’ concerns. There is quite a bit to negotiate to get to a “deal.”

It’s unlikely that Netanyahu would be baited into sitting in the Zelensky seat, forced to plead his case before a withering assault. The last time the two leaders appeared at the White House, Netanyahu was pleased to let Trump do the talking, and make all kinds of off-hand promises about turning Gaza into some kind of paradise, while Palestinians move to another place to live. That’s never going to happen, large scale at least, but it could have some promise for Gazans who wish to get out.

We don’t really know what kind of pressure Trump might apply to Netanyahu to resolve some of the thorny issues regarding Israel’s long-term security and it need to keep its own house. Perhaps the carrot of normalized Saudi relations, plus the promise of some kind of international cooperation, even involving Russia, regarding Iran and the Palestinians, will be enough to get a deal.

What is true is that Trump has already demonstrated American good will, and the Saudis have signaled theirs through OPEC+. Now it’s Israel’s turn to show some good will.

If Netanyahu leaves the White House without making a deal, the next time he visits, he may find himself in the Zelensky chair, that is, if he gets to come at all. That in itself could be the biggest stick Trump has.

Prayers for the families of missing children, and for those who have been displaced or have lost loved ones in the Kerr County, Texas hill country flash floods. The death toll is up to 80 and is still rising. I was with a family last night that had been in a cabin a month ago in Kerr County, along the Guadalupe River. The amount of rainfall in such a short time created an unstoppable wall of water, and they told me the cabin they were in is likely under 15 feet of water.

Regardless of statements made by certain Texas officials, no amount of funding or National Weather Service cuts would have changed the outcome of the forecast. There was no way to know that a storm that was supposed to drop maybe 6-12 inches of rain in 24 hours, dropped about 16 inches in just a few hours all at once, causing the river to rise 26 feet in just 45 minutes. Add to that, the rain happened in the early hours of the morning, and the NWS urgent flash flood warning at 4 a.m. was not going to be enough to get people out of bed and evacuated. It’s possible to prepare for 100-year floods or storms that are highly unlikely, but usually the cost to do so is prohibitive, until viewed in hindsight.

It is a natural disaster, and a tragedy that could not have been avoided anymore than Hurricane Katrina’s destruction in New Orleans, or the more recent floods and mudslides that have devastated North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. Of course, shutting down FEMA is not going to make things any easier, that is unless something else is put in place. But that’s not the important thing now. Hundreds remain at risk, and families are still waiting for their loved ones, or children, to be found.

A questionable deal was made between the U.S. Justice Department and El Salvador. For all the talk of MS-13 gang members getting into the U.S. due to lax immigration policies and enforcement, when we had in custody some leaders of the gang, in exchange for cooperation from Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, Justice Department prosecutors dropped charges against two MS-13 leaders and returned them to El Salvadoran custody.

This is a punch in the gut to U.S. law enforcement and prosecutors who believe that our justice system is best equipped to convict and incarcerate dangerous drug kingpins and gang leaders. As much as Bukele has touted his crackdown on MS-13, the gang still wields a lot of influence in El Salvador. It’s not unlikely that the two MS-13 leaders had some kind of connection to Bukele, who, it’s alleged, has ties to the gangs going back to his four year term as mayor of San Salvador from 2015-2018. Bukele denies the ties, but it’s certainly odd that he insisted on these two gang leaders coming home to be dealt with locally versus facing more severe charges under U.S. justice.

Of course, the U.S. has made deals with some less than savory leaders in the past. But this one doesn’t seem to be very MAGA at all.

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