Netanyahu flushes hostage deal

Israel is going to pursue Rafah, not hostages

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led his cabinet in a unanimous vote to shut down Al Jazeera in Israel, sending police to raid the news organization’s offices. The shutdown lasts 45 days under Israeli law, after which the cabinet must vote again (and thereafter). Also, the IDF has begun warning Gazans in Rafah to evacuate to a “humanitarian zone” in advance of a “limited scope operation.” So much for a cease-fire for hostages deal.

Of course, it’s well known that Qatari-funded Al Jazeera is not friendly to Israel. For that matter, neither is Reuters, or the Washington Post, who regularly staff their Israeli offices with reporters and editors partial to the Palestinian cause, and also use sources and journalists connected with terror organizations to get their news. The AP is little better, parsing its words and articles to fit a particular audience.

Israel’s government announced at the start of the Gaza campaign that Al Jazeera may be declared a national security threat at any time. It appears that Netanyahu picked this particular time to use that as an excuse to kill the current hostages for cease-fire deal being worked out in Egypt and Qatar. Netanyahu told his nation on Yom HaShoah—Holocaust Memorial Day—that Hamas is “torpedoing” the deal with “extreme demands.” the AP reported.

It’s always difficult to know who is killing what deal in the complicated, double-dealing world of Israeli-Palestinian relations. When Israel is forthright and sincere, Palestinians like the late Yassir Arafat have been known to take deals to the finish line only to back stab partners in bad faith. Hamas typically operates in bad faith, failing to implement its part of any agreement, or slow-walking compliance to get some extra last-minute demands.

But it’s crystal clear here that Netanyahu and his emergency war cabinet don’t believe Hamas will live up to a 33-hostage for cease-fire agreement. The move against Al Jazeera is both immediately unnecessary—it could be done anytime—and the move into Rafah is something the United States and other allies oppose. But the government under Bibi has done both.

Many Israelis view this as sabotage, abandoning a deal that could bring hostages home. But Israelis are also split in their view of how to resolve the current war against Hamas. With over 35,000 Palestinians dead, leaving without accomplishing the prime objective of eliminating all of Hamas’ fighting battalions and their smuggling tunnel system in Rafah would be a bitter end to a war that, from a strategic perspective, would have no point.

But that’s the point in the first place. Israel went in to a situation that many believed would end this way. For the past 20 years, Israel has also pursued a “mow the lawn” policy to marginalize Gaza and pacify Israelis, with limited military operations and lots of “containment.” That policy failed spectacularly. Netanyahu still faces charges of corruption which could lead to jail time when this emergency is over. The PM is unpopular, but still commands a lot of power over the government’s actions, and a direct channel to speak to his nation.

Sabotaging a hostage for cease-fire deal, no matter what you think of the intentions of Hamas, benefits Netanyahu personally. Unless some diplomatic miracle, or unforeseen event occurs, it appears that the IDF will go into Rafah, and possibly in a full-scale operation. That would mean whatever hope for the remaining living hostages (who knows how many are still alive) will continue to dwindle. If a war that ends without resolution of Hamas’ ability to fight is a strategic failure, what is a war to get back hundreds of hostages that ends with just about all of them dead?

There are no good resolutions here, especially when all the players are holding their real cards and lying about the ones they show.