Netanyahu's gift to Iran

Israel's PM breaks the status quo again with a not-so-subtle warning. Plus: abortion, abortion, abortion...is not pro-life

Israel started, in earnest, the final phase of its plan to dismantle Hezbollah, with the IDF conducting “targeted” ground operations in southern Lebanon. This will, at some point—sooner rather than later—morph into a full-on invasion, by “sea, air, and land,” as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told his nation. Part of this plan was to fully expect some kind of long-range retaliation from Iran itself—given the historical tit-for-tat between the Islamic republic and its enemies. It came, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s response is unexpected: a not-veiled threat to Iran’s leaders, and a gift to its citizens.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Iranian citizens.

After absorbing a barrage of at least 180 ballistic missiles fired on Israel, intercepting most, while Israelis hunkered in bomb shelters—yielding a single death, and that of a Palestinian civilian—instead of immediately firing back, Netanyahu delivered a message to Iran, “directly, without filters, without middlemen.”

“There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach,” he began, addressing “the people of Iran,” while referring to their government as “a regime that subjugates you.” The speech seems to be intended to foment rebellion within Iran against the Islamic government that rules it. This has been tried before by the U.S. and other nations, and has been quite ineffective, as Iran’s rulers are very quick to stomp out internal threats. But Netanyahu’s message wasn’t just aimed at the “noble Persian people,” it was principally intended for Iran’s leaders to hear.

“When Iran is finally free and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think -- everything will be different.”

In the last two months, Israel has forced Hamas, which was largely supported by Iranian money, out of its tunnels, to become a guerrilla force. Nobody has heard from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for about three weeks, leading to speculation that Sinwar may be dead (fueled by some IDF psy-ops). Hamas’s previous leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran on July 31, while a guest of the Iranian government.

During a two-week span, Israel eliminated the entire leadership echelon of Hezbollah, including its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The psychological impact of the pager, radio, and decapitation strikes, along with the almost-prescient intelligence data that Israel possesses about the location, disposition, and readiness of Hezbollah weapons has the terror organization on its heels. Israel’s strike into Yemen proves its ability to conduct large-scale, long-range strikes almost with impunity, as it is well-tucked under the umbrella of American firepower in the gulf.

Iran’s missile strike was reportedly telegraphed to both Russia, and to the U.S. as it was launched. As the last strike, this gave the U.S. plenty of opportunity to help intercept the missiles before they reached Israel proper. But there were a lot of missiles flying through the sky over Israel, which in itself is a frightening sight.

Far from unexpected, I think this is exactly the kind of response Netanyahu, and Israel’s planners, expected. But Netanyahu is committed not to maintain the status quo, which failed his country so horribly over two decades, ultimately leading to October 7, 2023. He is now committed to breaking the status quo in every way.

At great cost, to both Gaza and, in many ways, Israel—in reputation, economy, and emotional damage—Hamas has been largely defanged. Hezbollah, which Israel always saw as a much greater threat, has been degraded and will soon be similarly removed (to the joy of many Lebanese). The Houthis are a threat, but too far to deal with, and really, only an extended hand of the real enemy: Tehran’s ayatollahs.

Netanyahu’s short talk was a message to the ayatollahs: you’re next. It may not be missiles that fly out of Israel. It may be the assassin’s hand, the planted bomb, the poisoned meal (though poison is more Vladimir Putin’s signature dish), the tightly targeted bunker buster, the cruise missile through your window, or a variety of ways to die that rival the movie franchise “Final Destination.” The message to Iran’s leaders is: your time is up, sooner than people think.

There may well be a conventional, tit-for-tat response (it would be a good time to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities), but it will only be cover for the real response, which I believe is coming, and may well be more spectacular than the intelligence coups Israel has accomplished against Iran in the past. The rank paranoia in Tehran must be almost palpable, like the black smoke issuing from the Vatican when a pope is being chosen by the cardinals.

The ayatollahs hope to get their nuclear jacket on before Israel can destroy them. Netanyahu’s message is their time has run out. And this is a gift to Iran’s people, many of whom have values more similar to western nations than Bedouins in the Sinai. It’s not clear whether Israel can deliver its gift (don’t bet against them), or if Iran’s people are prepared to receive it. But all the same, Netanyahu’s speech was a clear indication of what’s coming—a break from the status quo.

THERE WAS A VEEBATE. Vice presidential candidates Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. J.D. Vance debated last night. I don’t have much to say about it, other than it won’t change any minds. It’s about what you expect when a Yale-educated lawyer debates a high school football coach. One of these men was a fish out of water, and I think you can guess who it was. However, Walz did respectably, if gaffe-prone (friends with school shooters?). Vance was comfortable, even when asked the million-dollar question, did Trump lose in 2020? (We’ll never know.)

ABORTION, ABORTION, ABORTION. One of the topics at the debate was abortion. Both candidates veered right toward the center, politically. Vance said he was compassionate toward women who want abortions, and intended to make the GOP more acceptable for women. This, of course, means more of “my body, my choice” rhetoric, which echos the removal of pro-life language from the Republican platform. The Trump position seems to be “I gave you justices to overturn Roe v. Wade, and that’s all you’re going to get.”

In Georgia, Judge Robert McBurney ruled that the state’s “heartbeat” law, which generally limited abortion to the first six weeks of pregnancy, was unconstitutional. He previously ruled in 2022 that the law was unenforceable under Roe but since Roe is overturned, it went back into effect by a ruling from the state supreme court. McBurney found that a “review of our higher courts’ interpretation of ‘liberty’ includes the power of a woman to control her own body and to decide what happens to it and in it.” So it’s back to “my body, my choice.”

I’ll echo Ronald Reagan here: all the people making rulings about abortion were themselves not aborted by their mothers. I am 100% pro-life, and believe the Biblical doctrine that life begins at conception. I also believe that the Bible cannot be legislated, as most people don’t hold all its precepts.

State by state, our federal system has the feature (not a bug!) that the people of a state get to decide how they want to live in that state. So, contradicting while agreeing with Gov. Walz, yes, geography does determine how a woman gets to decide when to abort her baby. The people of Georgia can determine our own law in this regard. First, judges in Georgia are elected. McBurney’s term expires in 2026. He previously ran unopposed. That can change.

Also, Georgia’s legislature can put a constitutional amendment up for a vote by the people. If there’s enough stomach for a statewide constitutional amendment to support a heartbeat law, then it shall be the law of the state, and absent a higher federal law, no judge in Georgia can strike it down.

Either way, the battle for life (life is a right, not abortion) can be settled in the next few years if rational, not rabid, people take the right message to the people. And if Georgia’s people don’t want that, there’s always other places in America where the people do. It won’t change my beliefs—on abortion, I’m a one-issue voter.

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