No, there won't be food riots November 1st
Why the USDA will have to pay SNAP money and you can safely shop at Walmart on Saturday
I got a text from family saying I better get my shopping done before Saturday because of the coming food riots. What? So I searched up “Nov 1 food riots” on Google, and yes, there’s some people claiming there will be food riots due to SNAP payments and EBT cards not being funded as they normally are on the first of the month.
Videos from YouTube accounts like Valhalla VFT have headlines like “MASSIVE Civil Unrest ERUPTS as Looting Begins Due to SNAP Benefits Shut Off.” Tim Pool’s podcast teases “Food RIOTS May Spark Trump INSURRECTION Act.” It seems a certain corner of the population wants to believe that folks who can’t use their EBT cards will turn to violence and we should be ready to fight them. Or that President Donald Trump will call up the National Guard to defend Kroger stores from mass looters, who will be shot on sight.
A TikTok video claimed that Walmart will close its stores in November over fears of riots. Of course, that’s not true at all. In fact, it’s likely none of it is true, and on November 1st, people with SNAP benefits and EBT cards will be able to use them just as they’ve done when the government was not shut down.
This is because Congress, in the past, set aside funds for just such a contingency as this, when the government might, in the future, which is today, be shut down because Congress, in the now, couldn’t agree on a continuing resolution to fund it. But the Trump USDA has claimed “the well has run dry,” and no SNAP payment will be made on November 1st. This is a naked political stunt to try and force Democrats to come hither to the table and knuckle under to end the shutdown. Regardless of my own opinion on Democrats’ motives for refusing to vote for the exact same continuing resolution they approved just a few months ago, ending SNAP payments this way will not make them do it.
When Brooke Rollins, the Secretary of Agriculture, decided to withhold SNAP payments, 25 states, plus the District of Columbia, filed suit in the U.S. District Court in Massachusetts on October 28th, to force the government to pay. That suit is not a political stunt. It’s to enforce the law, which is clearly on the states’ side.
The government claims it does not have the $10 to $12 billion for November’s SNAP payments to states, and does not possess authority to access contingency funds for this purpose. Legally, in fact, the USDA has a $6 billion SNAP contingency reserve, which consists of $3 billion appropriated in FY2024 and an additional $3 billion in the FY25 CR. It also has more than $23 billion in “Section 32” Commodity Funds which are transferable under 7 U.S.C. §2257, according to the lawsuit. Under the Food and Nutrition Act, the USDA is required to transfer these funds and use them.
Further, the government does not have the power to pick and choose which contingencies qualify for using the funds. The appropriation language used to provide the funding states “$3B... placed in reserve for use only in such amounts and at such times as may become necessary to carry out program operations,” which makes no distinction between “regular” and disaster benefits. The government cannot hold back the funds or claim it cannot transfer them because they are for use in disasters.
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities noted that USDA and OMB have ruled in the past that contingency funds can be used under existing authority to cover normal operations.
Under past shutdowns, during both Republican and Democratic administrations, SNAP benefits have always been provided using available funding sources to prevent a break in benefits. While it is not clear whether past administrations used the contingency reserve or instead used other available funding sources, making use of the contingency reserve unnecessary, the guidance documents from past shutdowns or near-shutdowns make it clear that the SNAP contingency reserve was available to cover regular SNAP benefits.
The Trump administration is ignoring clear precedent, the plain language of the law, and changing policy on the fly (nothing new about that). The lawsuit claims, correctly, that this is “arbitrary/capricious” and violates the Administrative Procedures Act.
So what will happen? I predict a quick decision by the U.S. District Court, and a writ of mandamus (or other injunction) will be issued to force the USDA to fund SNAP and issue the EBT payments. Of course, the Trump administration could appeal that ruling, but I do not think any court, including the Supreme Court, would stay the judgement against the government since it is in the interests of the people of the United States, and so clearly meets all the legal hurdles that the government claims are too high.
The only problem could be that the federal government, being shut down, might claim it does not have the ability to comply, in that perhaps USDA would send home, furlough, or lay off workers whose job it is to fund the EBT cards. That’s a terrible look, I think, but it’s not beyond the pale for this current administration. Some states are preparing their own options to provide SNAP relief should the federal government simply not comply with the court order (that’s very likely to come in the next 24 hours).
In the end, this is all political theater, and a waste of many lawyers’ and judges’ time so that Tim Pool and a cadre of insurrection catastrophists can have their podcasts, and a bunch of people who listen or watch that content will be scared and tell their relatives to run to the store before Walmart closes and there are food riots at the Publix.
However, the first of the month coming up, I did stop by the local Ingles (a wonderful, smaller chain) on the way home from work and pick up a bunch of meat they had on special. That’s not because of the coming food riots, it’s because many people on fixed incomes like to shop on the first day of the month, and since that’s a Saturday, and following Halloween, it’s going to be extra busy and I’d rather get my groceries before it’s all picked through. But do not worry if you prefer to shop on Saturday. The biggest problem you’ll have is the folks clogging the checkout lines.
No, there will not be food riots. But it would be nice if Congress would do its job, and if the Trump administration would stop doing stupid, illegal, political stunts and forcing the courts to work overtime.
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There are Publix, Kroger and Aldi stores less than two miles from my home. I use them only for immediate needs. I buy most of my groceries at Ingles which is about 10 miles away.
Two things about this story. More than 10% of the citizens rely on SNAP benefits. Congress hasn't been able to get its budget act together for several decades -regardless of which party is in the White House or which party controls Congress. Neither of these things make sense.