Biden is driven like a rowboat in a tempest by the "never let a crisis go to waste" crowd while he has no appetite to use a crisis for anything at all.
Biden made the mistake of listening to folks whispering in his ear that he wasn't just a caretaker President intended to clean up Trump's mess, but a transformative figure in his own right.
I've been preaching that Biden should embrace being a one-term president (due to age, if nothing else), and push through the stuff that the country needs, but would be a third rail for just about any other POTUS seeking reelection. As much as I disagree with his Afghanistan withdrawal, that's not a bad example of the kinds of tough decisions to make that other Presidents punted on. And I think that the Australian submarine deal was a similar kind of move (and one that I agree with).
To use an example from gaming, Biden's in a position to serve as the Democratic Party's "tank", drawing attention and fire to himself for unpopular actions, while the party grooms and promotes a (younger) Democratic successor for 2024. At one time, Harris seemed like she could be that person (checks all the right boxes), but has shown that she has the political courage and instincts of a fruit fly. Maybe Secretary (née Mayor) Pete can get some traction if the infrastructure bill goes through and he does a decent job rebuilding America, or someone else. In any case, Democrats are mistaken that Biden will be as competitive against Trump in 2024 as he was in 2020, should we all suffer through yet another Old Men Yelling at Clouds election that year.
Biden's victory over Trump was much narrower in scope of dominance compared to Obama in 2008. The latter's victory was much larger(365-173 in the EC) and 7.2% popular vote win, as compared to Biden's 306-232 EC and 4.4% popular vote wins over Trump. Obama's coattails brought a +8 Dem gain in the Senate, and +21 Dem gain in the House. Biden's win in 2020 had Dems -13 Dem loss in House and going even in the Senate, only going +2 when Trump's post election behavior resulted in Dems winning both Georgia Senate seats in the runoff. So Obama clearly had more of the type of victory to give the kind of governing mandate typical of transformational Presidents. Even so, Obama and the Dems overreached and suffered a massive midterm loss in 2010, and lost 9 seats in the Senate to give control to the GOP in 2014. The 44th President's re-election margin in 2012 was considerably reduced from 2008.
The problem is that Biden had much less decisive win than either Obama's 2008 and 2012 wins. And the current President beat someone with far greater political liabilities than Obama's opponents(McCain and Romney). Yet he is governing in a brazen manner, as if he had some kind of decisive electoral mandate backing such. Given that the GOP can't seem to move on from Trump, it is a big mistake to be overconfident in thinking that the latter winning a 2nd nonconsecutive term in 2024 is an impossibility. But what Biden's haphazard governance and lousy messaging, whether he knows it or not, is only increasing the chances of Trump pulling off a Grover Cleveland in 2024. I do agree with Chris that it would be better for the Dems if Biden declared himself a self-imposed one-term President, and embrace a more caretaker role going into 2024.
As for the GOP, they are riding on Biden's misfortunes and have done little to tamp down the former President. A lot can change within the next 3 years. I remember very well when GOP took control of the House and Senate in 1994, and many of us on the right were licking their chops at President Clinton being one-termed in 1996. The overconfidence got Clinton winning reelection that year by a decisive margin. To a certain extent, the same kind of happened in 2010, when the GOP was licking its chops after they had a massive midterm win. Unfortunately, Obama rebounded and pulled off a 2nd term win in 2012. Given that history, the GOP has its work cut out for them. Given that the base is still stuck on Trump, the latter will be quite the gamble. He could either hurt them significantly in 2022 and 2024, or that Biden will go down in flames and that gamble would prove to be a lucky one. Time will tell.
Biden made the mistake of listening to folks whispering in his ear that he wasn't just a caretaker President intended to clean up Trump's mess, but a transformative figure in his own right.
I've been preaching that Biden should embrace being a one-term president (due to age, if nothing else), and push through the stuff that the country needs, but would be a third rail for just about any other POTUS seeking reelection. As much as I disagree with his Afghanistan withdrawal, that's not a bad example of the kinds of tough decisions to make that other Presidents punted on. And I think that the Australian submarine deal was a similar kind of move (and one that I agree with).
To use an example from gaming, Biden's in a position to serve as the Democratic Party's "tank", drawing attention and fire to himself for unpopular actions, while the party grooms and promotes a (younger) Democratic successor for 2024. At one time, Harris seemed like she could be that person (checks all the right boxes), but has shown that she has the political courage and instincts of a fruit fly. Maybe Secretary (née Mayor) Pete can get some traction if the infrastructure bill goes through and he does a decent job rebuilding America, or someone else. In any case, Democrats are mistaken that Biden will be as competitive against Trump in 2024 as he was in 2020, should we all suffer through yet another Old Men Yelling at Clouds election that year.
Biden's victory over Trump was much narrower in scope of dominance compared to Obama in 2008. The latter's victory was much larger(365-173 in the EC) and 7.2% popular vote win, as compared to Biden's 306-232 EC and 4.4% popular vote wins over Trump. Obama's coattails brought a +8 Dem gain in the Senate, and +21 Dem gain in the House. Biden's win in 2020 had Dems -13 Dem loss in House and going even in the Senate, only going +2 when Trump's post election behavior resulted in Dems winning both Georgia Senate seats in the runoff. So Obama clearly had more of the type of victory to give the kind of governing mandate typical of transformational Presidents. Even so, Obama and the Dems overreached and suffered a massive midterm loss in 2010, and lost 9 seats in the Senate to give control to the GOP in 2014. The 44th President's re-election margin in 2012 was considerably reduced from 2008.
The problem is that Biden had much less decisive win than either Obama's 2008 and 2012 wins. And the current President beat someone with far greater political liabilities than Obama's opponents(McCain and Romney). Yet he is governing in a brazen manner, as if he had some kind of decisive electoral mandate backing such. Given that the GOP can't seem to move on from Trump, it is a big mistake to be overconfident in thinking that the latter winning a 2nd nonconsecutive term in 2024 is an impossibility. But what Biden's haphazard governance and lousy messaging, whether he knows it or not, is only increasing the chances of Trump pulling off a Grover Cleveland in 2024. I do agree with Chris that it would be better for the Dems if Biden declared himself a self-imposed one-term President, and embrace a more caretaker role going into 2024.
As for the GOP, they are riding on Biden's misfortunes and have done little to tamp down the former President. A lot can change within the next 3 years. I remember very well when GOP took control of the House and Senate in 1994, and many of us on the right were licking their chops at President Clinton being one-termed in 1996. The overconfidence got Clinton winning reelection that year by a decisive margin. To a certain extent, the same kind of happened in 2010, when the GOP was licking its chops after they had a massive midterm win. Unfortunately, Obama rebounded and pulled off a 2nd term win in 2012. Given that history, the GOP has its work cut out for them. Given that the base is still stuck on Trump, the latter will be quite the gamble. He could either hurt them significantly in 2022 and 2024, or that Biden will go down in flames and that gamble would prove to be a lucky one. Time will tell.
LOL I know I go to Steve Berman when I want to know what the hard left thinks...