Once again: Thank Pakistan

A quick note on the cease-fire

The first post I made when this Iran war started was “Thank Pakistan.” I suggest you read it.

The relevant part:

Just a day before waves of fighters, bombers, and Tomahawk missiles flooded into Iran to hit dozens of targets, Pakistan launched airstrikes against Kabul and other major Afghan cities, and targeted 22 locations across that country. It’s true, there had always been tension between the two countries, and lately it had ratcheted up. So perhaps it’s coincidence. But the effect is real: the Taliban will not be sending troops to aid Iran’s proxies, while its country is under attack by its well-armed neighbor.

Pakistan is an odd bird. They seem to be everyone’s frenemy. Pakistan has good relations with the U.S. and cooperates on many regional issues. But Osama bin Laden found refuge and hospitality there for years while we searched for him and fought in Afghanistan. Pakistan is happy to shelter terrorists, and does little to combat widespread fraud operations that fleece elderly people and businesses from call centers based in their country. Pakistan is technically a rival of India, arguing over borders and territorial claims, with regular clashes and sometimes cross-border artillery fire. But at the Wagah border post between the two nations, border guards from both countries perform a dance-off each day as tourists take photos.

Pakistan has the relationship with both the U.S. and Iran that allows the kind of diplomacy we saw, making the two-week cease-fire possible. Pakistan also has nuclear weapons, so they are in the “listen to me” club.

Both President Donald Trump, and whoever is steering the ship in Iran (likely someone in the IRGC or a council) want the cease-fire. Iran (the IRGC) needs to reset and rebuild, and of course reassert their grip over the country. Trump needs the economic pain to stop, to keep his acolytes from turning on him.

Russia is fine either way. By the way, you know Russia has been supplying real-time targeting data to Iran so they can better shoot at our forces, and our allies. And I don’t hear the White House saying a word. China wants the cease-fire, also, and that was reportedly a big player in Iran’s acceptance.

My thoughts, though they matter little in the scheme of things. No agreement will be reached, and there’s a 50 percent chance the cease-fire either won’t hold (I’d bet Israel is the breaker), or it will not extend past two weeks. But we will see.

In any case, thank Pakistan.