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Chris J. Karr's avatar

This is an edited version of a comment that I made elsewhere:

I was talking to my wife yesterday and my current prediction is that Roe (and Casey) will still not be overturned. I doubt that the justices want to take this to its logical conclusion, and also strike down Griswold v. Connecticut - the decision before Roe that established the privacy protections (Douglas's "penumbras of emanations") in the context of state contraception restrictions that the Roe/Casey decisions are premised on.

I do expect this Court to uphold the Mississippi law and permit limits on abortion after 15 weeks (down from 23 weeks since 1992, under the fetal viability rationale) in states that choose to go that route. Related, I also expect the Court to strike down Texas's abortion law (which effectively outlaws it now), not because of the abortion issue, but should other states adopt the same procedural loopholes that TX is exploiting, then there are a lot of rights that the conservatives on the Court hold dear (such as gun rights) that are amenable to elimination by striking "abortion" from Texas's law and replacing it with just about anything else.

We'll have to see how the Court ultimately decides this spring when it hands down its decision.

This is also a reminder to every Democrat with half a brain that they need to be twisting Justice Breyer's arm right now to retire immediately so that Biden can appoint a young Democratic judge in the next couple months, given the high likelihood that the GOP regains control of the Senate in 2023 and Mitch McConnell replays his 2016 Merrick Garland playbook.

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Contra Steve, I do think that Democrats will successfully activate voters regardless of what SCOTUS hands down. Americans broadly support access to abortion[1], and a large part of Pew's 59% pro-choice crowd have taken Roe/Casey for granted, which will not be the case come next year. I think that the pro-life side is about as fully engaged as it can be, and Democrat's fate next year (both at the national and state level) will pivot to what extent they bring back abortion as a salient issue for voters. Given that SCOTUS is now hearing these cases (instead of denying certiorari), that's going to be jet fuel that makes the next few years' elections pivot on abortion rights.

[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/05/06/about-six-in-ten-americans-say-abortion-should-be-legal-in-all-or-most-cases/

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linda's avatar

It was ALWAYS a state issue and never a constitutional matter for the supremes.

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