Philly or bust: The last whistlestop

Momentum will define this razor-thin race. The debate in Philly could decide it all.

“I've said many, many, many unkind things about Philadelphia, and I meant every one.” —David Lynch. One of the two champs entering the political cage match in Philly is going to have plenty of reasons to agree with the guy who made the 1984 “Dune” movie.

I think there’s only room for one, maybe one-and-a-half, swings of the momentum ball in this race. Philadelphia is where it’s going to happen: one winner, one loser. I don’t like to make predictions like this, but think about it.

1. The debate takes place 56 days before Election Day. That’s well within the “sprint” period that defines who gets the momentum swing.

2. Philadelphia is the host city. Pennsylvania early voting begins only six (6–count’em!) days after the debate.

3. Minnesota and Virginia early voting starts September 20, 10 days after the debate. Now we know how Minnesota will go, and likely how Virginia will go, but the polls in those states will matter very much in determining who gets the momentum push.

4. Both Trump and Harris are going to go for the “zinger” – the memorable line that sticks with voters. Like Reagan’s “there you go again.”

5. Both candidates get to define their policies; who communicates them better could connect at the ballot box.

Kamala Harris has finally thrown up some policies on her website. She promises a whole bunch of things that government can’t—in its best fantasy—accomplish. Things like “lower energy costs and tackle the climate crisis.” The quotes are there to prove that both of these things are literally in the same bullet point. Other than a few trinkets thrown to the progressives, most of Harris’ issues page, 20 years ago, would look very Republican indeed. This section could have come right from George W. Bush in 2000.

Everyone’s looking at the polls, but there’s a couple of things you already know about polls. (I have a lot of confidence in the political IQ of readers of The Racket News™.) Polls are only predictive in the sense that the past predicts the future. In a race where just about all the swing states, the main battlegrounds, are a virtual tie, the polls only give a sense of momentum when taken over time. Their predictive value—even taken as an amalgam in a complex model—is diminished in this kind of dynamic.

J.V. Last, writing in The Bulwark, noted that Kamala’s not “there” as in 50.5 to 51 percent of the vote. He concluded her best path is to “win late-breaking undecideds by a large margin,” or “juice Democratic turnout so that it swamps Trump’s turnout of low-propensity voters.”

But here’s her problem: how do you do that in a 90-minute session where at least half the words spoken are going to come from the giant “O”-shaped mouth across the stage, who will smirk and shrug and mug at you, and at the cameras, while his mic is muted to the public?

Harris has roped in every ounce of her coronation-bounce. She’s zapped all the momentum she had taking over from the fading, old man who titularly still runs the country. Now she’s got to push her own momentum before the pendulum swings too far the other way.

That raises an interesting question. How does one practice debate against Donald Trump? It’s like trying to prepare for a UFC fight against the Three Stooges, except there’s no rules, and the Stooges can bring a live chicken, a cart full of pies for throwing, and Curly. You can’t play the “straight man” or you’ll lose. But you can’t be silly either.

It’s a real problem for Harris. It’s a good thing she’ll have the ABC moderators on her side. I think.

I asked my brother Jay who he thinks will win this debate. He said: “The Russians. The Chinese.” I think he’s probably right.

But someone has to win the electoral college, or—God forbid—it’s a tie. It’s either going to be Harris or Trump. It’s going to come down to about seven states, and no matter how you cut it, victory has to come through Philadelphia. It’s fitting that the debate takes place there, and the rules have advantages for both Harris and Trump.

• Muted mics: Trump will not be heard if he blurts or interrupts Harris. Harris won’t get to zing Trump while he’s speaking. Advantage: Trump.

• No opening statements: Harris is a terrible speaker in short form. She has a tendency to spew word salad if she’s not reading from perpared notes. Trump can go for hours on any topic (I didn’t say he would make sense or speak truths). Having an opening statement can hurt Harris more than Trump. Slight advantage: Harris.

• No notes or help: Trump will contradict himself and make up all kinds of facts, either because he read it yesterday, or he’s been repeating the same made-up facts for years. Harris has a good command of facts. The moderators appreciate facts and not having to spend a lot of time tying a candidate down. Advantage: Harris.

• No live audience: You might think this would be a definite hit against Trump, but I think it’s a tie. Either candidate would love to have a “home” crowd. Neither will, and neither will benefit from it.

• Closing statements of two minutes: Harris will have this canned, and so will Trump. I think this is a bigger opportunity for Trump to blunt whatever Harris closes with, and Trump won the toss, so he will go last. Advantage: Trump.

If both candidates are having their best nights, it’s going to be a night where nobody gets the big zinger, and there’s no clear winner or loser. Of course, what kind of entertainment is that? I think one candidate will step in something wet, smelly, and untouchable without a stick. Whichever candidate does that is going to lose a lot of momentum in the race, and unless events intervene (which they always can), it will likely be unrecoverable.

It happens at 9 p.m. Eastern time. I’m not a betting man, but if I were I’d put money on this: Someone’s going to leave Philly with a lot of hate.

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