"But it’s not magical thinking to negotiate with Russia for the purpose of containing them later, and keeping them from trying again what they wanted to do in February, 2022."
I'm still waiting to hear how Russia is in any way "contained". They didn't respect their obligations under the Budapest Memorandum (we're not respecting our obligations), and "ending" the war only gives them time to regroup for another push at some time in the future. (As not responding to their Crimea incursion opened the door for the 2022 invasion.)
Russia is not a trustworthy partner, and I don't see how "negotiations" do anything other than tying our hands if we have no expectation that they will hold up their end of whatever bargain the US and Putin arrive at.
If an international peacekeeping mission to serve as a tripwire is off the table, giving Ukraine back its nuclear deterrent seems to be the only other guarantee that Russia will respect Ukrainian borders.
I don’t know if anyone in the world would trust Ukraine with nukes. Plus isn’t that a violation of the NPT? The trip wire is the only useful option and it will need the U.S. to do it.
Let them hold them the same way Israel holds theirs. Not officially, but just enough so that Putin knows that Moscow can be turned into a parking lot if he doesn't keep his hands to himself.
Some treaties mean more than others. NPT is a “biggie.” And if we would threaten nukes might as well just make Ukraine part of NATO and give them article 5. Basically Putin is asking for a gold paved road to come back to Kyiv without incurring unacceptable losses. And he may get it.
There's still tools that have not been used, like declaring Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. That will trigger all sorts of sanctions not only on Russia but on others that do business with them.
Addendum: reportedly the US has now stopped selling arms to Ukraine. Sounds like both bad business and bad policy.
Great post, Steve. Your last paragraph says it all. Trump always pushes things a little (sometimes a lot) too far. He's not always wrong but he could be more effective.
I really enjoy your work, Steve. But a few points you made were way off, to my reasoning.
First, Israel didn’t hold elections for the same reason France, Canada and UK haven’t held elections in that same time span. It’s not because of Bibi or any inherent time span that has been abrogated. It’s because it hasn’t been 4 years since the current Knesset was elected, nor was it dissolved. Although seemingly well within their national laws, the Ukrainian election delay is something very different. Just sounds like trickery on your part, weakening your argument.
Secondly, you seem to have way more faith in near term European military capabilities, independent from the US. The required spending for NATO is a proxy measure. At best it’s a start. So much is lacking in logistics and strategic assets, never mind cultural issues. They are more likely a generation or more away from strategic autonomy, even assuming they started trying to develop it.
Just my take. You make great arguments and I enjoy your perspective. Thank you for posting your articles.
By “they” you mean Europe or Ukraine? I believe Western Europe is more than capable of defending itself against Russian aggression without the U.S. even in an Article 5 situation. But they do not have the capacity to win in Ukraine and defend themselves at the same time. I suppose the U.S. could do that. But we lack the desire to do it.
Yes, the “they” is NATO, or Western Europe, take your pick. Sure they’d stand against Russia, but that is a reflection of Russian mediocrity. Still a good counterpoint, though. My issue was that a near term loss of strategic influence in NATO due to European militaries becoming near-peers is sadly not realistic. The key word is “sadly”, as all in the alliance gain from these militaries contributing their fair share.
Probably good to note that the spending target is a guideline, not a requirement; and that that guideline is ultimately one based on maintaining current capabilities, not for expanding capabilities.
If EU wants to - and to this point they mostly have not - then they can indeed ramp-up military production. Trump may in fact be successful in getting them to do so, but at the expense of removing the US as a reliable trade/military alliance member.
Keeping Russia contained was the correct decision. The United States and the Europeans both pursued this course of action. Russia is failing. Their economy is failing, their infrastructure has failed, their armed forces are failing. The question is how to play the end game. With the election of Trump, that endgame will be determined by our absence and by the actions of the Europeans.
The American president is demanding an election in Ukraine, the horror. The American president is not backing the Ukrainian president the Americans installed, outrageous! The Russians have become a war machine because their previous sinister objective of joining the economic order by selling the only thing they have, oil, was thwarted by previous American administrations, quelle surprise!
It’s obvious that the answer is to repeat the same actions we have been doing and expecting a different outcome. More money, more death, more insecurity. Death to democracy! Death to peace! Here is to your bloody war and great bylines. Send your sons er… their sons. War pigs all.
Ukraine elected their president. Their constitution does not allow for elections during wartime, and the opposition acknowledges this. Heck, former Commander in Chief Zaluzhni is ready to run for president of Ukraine.
Ukraine was invaded by Russia - full stop. Russia is the warmonger, is responsible for every death, and can bring peace by leaving immediately.
America bent over backwards to get Russia integrated into modern civilization: it's time to say "forget it" and move on without them.
I always look at these wars and rumors of wars in the light of Bible prophecy. If we can agree that we are in "the last days," meaning the last days before the return of Jesus Christ as King of Kings and Lord of Lords, the Russia-Ukraine struggle is very intriguing. Most Bible prophecy scholars would look at Ezekiel chapters 38 and 39 as still in the future, albeit the near future rather than farther into the future. This part of scripture deals with what most scholars agree is Russia along with Iran, Libya, Turkey and others attacking Israel to eliminate the Jewish state once and for all. If, in fact, this invasion is to take place in the near future, then the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine must get settled soon. Now, my own personal belief is that, and I have nothing to back this up with, Ukraine will join with Russia in it's attempted invasion of Israel, which means the settlement of the current war will result in Russia and Ukraine reuniting along with many other of the Soviet Union territories sometime before they turn toward Israel. Donald Trump could, and probably will, at least help to bring this to pass. Something to contemplate...
"What do you mean 'we,' kemo sabe?"
;)
There can be only one government of the United States at a time. “We” is that.
"But it’s not magical thinking to negotiate with Russia for the purpose of containing them later, and keeping them from trying again what they wanted to do in February, 2022."
I'm still waiting to hear how Russia is in any way "contained". They didn't respect their obligations under the Budapest Memorandum (we're not respecting our obligations), and "ending" the war only gives them time to regroup for another push at some time in the future. (As not responding to their Crimea incursion opened the door for the 2022 invasion.)
Russia is not a trustworthy partner, and I don't see how "negotiations" do anything other than tying our hands if we have no expectation that they will hold up their end of whatever bargain the US and Putin arrive at.
What’s your plan then? I’m all ears. But you’ll have a hard time getting me to buy in on “forever war” to punish Russia.
If an international peacekeeping mission to serve as a tripwire is off the table, giving Ukraine back its nuclear deterrent seems to be the only other guarantee that Russia will respect Ukrainian borders.
I don’t know if anyone in the world would trust Ukraine with nukes. Plus isn’t that a violation of the NPT? The trip wire is the only useful option and it will need the U.S. to do it.
Alternatively, we let our European allies take the lead on this, and we back their play.
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/ukraine-statement-weimar-support-ukraine_en
Now you're worried about treaties? ;-)
Let them hold them the same way Israel holds theirs. Not officially, but just enough so that Putin knows that Moscow can be turned into a parking lot if he doesn't keep his hands to himself.
Some treaties mean more than others. NPT is a “biggie.” And if we would threaten nukes might as well just make Ukraine part of NATO and give them article 5. Basically Putin is asking for a gold paved road to come back to Kyiv without incurring unacceptable losses. And he may get it.
There's still tools that have not been used, like declaring Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. That will trigger all sorts of sanctions not only on Russia but on others that do business with them.
Addendum: reportedly the US has now stopped selling arms to Ukraine. Sounds like both bad business and bad policy.
Great post, Steve. Your last paragraph says it all. Trump always pushes things a little (sometimes a lot) too far. He's not always wrong but he could be more effective.
I really enjoy your work, Steve. But a few points you made were way off, to my reasoning.
First, Israel didn’t hold elections for the same reason France, Canada and UK haven’t held elections in that same time span. It’s not because of Bibi or any inherent time span that has been abrogated. It’s because it hasn’t been 4 years since the current Knesset was elected, nor was it dissolved. Although seemingly well within their national laws, the Ukrainian election delay is something very different. Just sounds like trickery on your part, weakening your argument.
Secondly, you seem to have way more faith in near term European military capabilities, independent from the US. The required spending for NATO is a proxy measure. At best it’s a start. So much is lacking in logistics and strategic assets, never mind cultural issues. They are more likely a generation or more away from strategic autonomy, even assuming they started trying to develop it.
Just my take. You make great arguments and I enjoy your perspective. Thank you for posting your articles.
By “they” you mean Europe or Ukraine? I believe Western Europe is more than capable of defending itself against Russian aggression without the U.S. even in an Article 5 situation. But they do not have the capacity to win in Ukraine and defend themselves at the same time. I suppose the U.S. could do that. But we lack the desire to do it.
Yes, the “they” is NATO, or Western Europe, take your pick. Sure they’d stand against Russia, but that is a reflection of Russian mediocrity. Still a good counterpoint, though. My issue was that a near term loss of strategic influence in NATO due to European militaries becoming near-peers is sadly not realistic. The key word is “sadly”, as all in the alliance gain from these militaries contributing their fair share.
Probably good to note that the spending target is a guideline, not a requirement; and that that guideline is ultimately one based on maintaining current capabilities, not for expanding capabilities.
If EU wants to - and to this point they mostly have not - then they can indeed ramp-up military production. Trump may in fact be successful in getting them to do so, but at the expense of removing the US as a reliable trade/military alliance member.
Steve, read “Provoked” (Scott Horton). Learn.
Keeping Russia contained was the correct decision. The United States and the Europeans both pursued this course of action. Russia is failing. Their economy is failing, their infrastructure has failed, their armed forces are failing. The question is how to play the end game. With the election of Trump, that endgame will be determined by our absence and by the actions of the Europeans.
The American president is demanding an election in Ukraine, the horror. The American president is not backing the Ukrainian president the Americans installed, outrageous! The Russians have become a war machine because their previous sinister objective of joining the economic order by selling the only thing they have, oil, was thwarted by previous American administrations, quelle surprise!
It’s obvious that the answer is to repeat the same actions we have been doing and expecting a different outcome. More money, more death, more insecurity. Death to democracy! Death to peace! Here is to your bloody war and great bylines. Send your sons er… their sons. War pigs all.
Ukraine elected their president. Their constitution does not allow for elections during wartime, and the opposition acknowledges this. Heck, former Commander in Chief Zaluzhni is ready to run for president of Ukraine.
Ukraine was invaded by Russia - full stop. Russia is the warmonger, is responsible for every death, and can bring peace by leaving immediately.
America bent over backwards to get Russia integrated into modern civilization: it's time to say "forget it" and move on without them.
“… Ukraine was invaded by Russia - full stop…” just no, that is not the full story and you know it.
https://open.substack.com/pub/mearsheimer/p/who-caused-the-ukraine-war?r=24w4vm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
First paragraph of that piece: “This is not to deny, of course, that Russia invaded Ukraine and started the war.” No further comment.
I always look at these wars and rumors of wars in the light of Bible prophecy. If we can agree that we are in "the last days," meaning the last days before the return of Jesus Christ as King of Kings and Lord of Lords, the Russia-Ukraine struggle is very intriguing. Most Bible prophecy scholars would look at Ezekiel chapters 38 and 39 as still in the future, albeit the near future rather than farther into the future. This part of scripture deals with what most scholars agree is Russia along with Iran, Libya, Turkey and others attacking Israel to eliminate the Jewish state once and for all. If, in fact, this invasion is to take place in the near future, then the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine must get settled soon. Now, my own personal belief is that, and I have nothing to back this up with, Ukraine will join with Russia in it's attempted invasion of Israel, which means the settlement of the current war will result in Russia and Ukraine reuniting along with many other of the Soviet Union territories sometime before they turn toward Israel. Donald Trump could, and probably will, at least help to bring this to pass. Something to contemplate...
Death cults are bad.
Yes, they are.