Shutdowns don't work, but...

...this one might.

If you have been reading me for long, you know that I have a rule of thumb about shutdowns: They never work.

The reason why is simple. Congress works on a principle of majority rule. The number of votes required varies. Sometimes, depending on the vote and the rules, a bill can require a two-thirds majority, 60 votes, or sometimes, just 51, but one thing is always true: You can never win with less than a majority of votes being cast.

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Partisans love shutdowns because it makes them feel like they are fighting, but as a strategy, shutdowns are stupid because they don’t change the math.

There are two ways to change the arithmatic of congressional votes. First, if a specific number of votes is not required (but a percentage of members present or voting) one side could try to influence members of the opposition to not vote. This would lower the number of opposition votes and make the hurdle smaller. Second, and usually more practical is to persuade opponents to vote with your party. This strategy has the advantage of making the bill’s support bipartisan. Voters (except for the radical fringes) like bipartisanship.

Typically, shutdowns don’t accomplish either of these goals. To the contrary, they generally encourage the other side to dig in, because shutdowns are usually unpopular. The majority party knows that whoever is blamed for the shutdown will pay a political price for starting it. This is usually the minority party.

This time may be different, however. The government is once again scheduled to run out of money this weekend, and the focal point this time is spending for the Department of Homeland Security. Democrats say that they won’t provide additional funds for ICE while Republicans refuse to strip the funding from the appropriations bill. On the surface, it looks a lot like last year’s shutdown that ended after 43 days when eight Democrats crossed the aisle to fund the government without Affordable Care Act subsidies or SNAP funding.

What makes this time different? In a few words, Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

In the wake of two killings of American citizens in three weeks by ICE and Customs officers, ICE’s popularity has plummeted. Ninety-four percent of Democrats, 70 percent of independents, and 19 percent of Republicans said the agency had gone too far in recent New York Times poll. The dramatic shift in public opinion led to the removal of Greg Bovino as head of the Border Patrol, and there are also hints that immigration agents may be withdrawn from Minneapolis. As Erick Erickson said over the weekend, the Administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement was “losing normies in real time,” hence the shift in policy.

That changing tide of public opinion may also give Democrats a boost in negotiating the appropriations bill. A number of Republicans have called for an investigation into the killing of Alex Pretti, something that did not occur after Renee Good’s death. These moderates are likely feeling the heat from constituents who are unhappy with ICE’s tactics and the broad net that is increasingly sweeping up illegals with no criminal record, legal residents, and even US citizens.

There are increasing calls to abolish or reform ICE. Even the Libertarian Party’s national chair recently called for the abolition of the agency. Almost half of Americans and 20 percent of Republicans already support abolishing ICE per a new YouGov poll. Those numbers have surged from 27 and nine percent respectively last June.

As an aside, we obviously need some sort of immigration enforcement agency, but we may need to remake immigration enforcement from the ground up. At the very least, broad reforms need to be implemented and the house needs to be cleaned of bad apples, many of whom appear to be new hires with inadequate screening and training. All that really needs to be included in comprehensive immigration reform.

Whether that groundswell is enough to make Republicans in Congress cross the aisle (and cross Trump) is an open question. Congressional Republicans are between the proverbial rock and hard place with an increasingly unpopular lame duck (and congressmen) leading their party but who is also still very popular within the GOP. Overall, Democrats have seen a 8.7-point positive shift in generic ballot polling, which per Nate Silver, slightly lags the 2018 shift but is ahead of the opposition position for many recent midterm elections.

And even if Democrats ultimately fail to stop the funding bill, there may be a moral victory to be had. If Republicans go to the mat to preserve funding for an increasingly unpopular agency, they will be closely identified to future ICE abuses and killings, similar to how Republicans are identified with rising healthcare costs and Medicaid cuts. Tying Republicans to unpopular policies is one way of driving Democratic turnout in this year’s midterms.

Republicans in Congress are feeling the heat from their constituents. It is far from a sure thing that enough will defect to pass legislation that will abolish ICE or hold the agency accountable, but the chances are far greater now than they were a few months ago. If ICE doesn’t clean up its act, the chances of abolishing ICE will grow higher still, especially if Democrats win majorities in the House (almost assured) and Senate (a tougher row to hoe but by no means unattainable) this November.

THE NO-GUN WARRIOR In a conversation with reporters, Trump was asked about the Second Amendment. He answered, “You can’t walk in with guns.” The NRA could not be reached for comment.

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