One of the interesting variables this cycle are the abortion ballot measures popping up on the general election ballots. I suspect those will goose turnout in ways that might be a meaningful bump for the Democrats.
I’m pro-life, but it’s ironic that the Dobbs decision (which I agree with) may turn out to be the worst thing to happen to the prolife movement and may cost Republicans yet another election.
I notice that you never reference Rasmussen or Trafalger in your polling review. The last I heard, which was about 5 days ago, Rasmussen has Trump up by an average of about 4 percentage points in all the battlegrounds. Rasmussen has been more reliable than most polls in terms of accuracy. And just as an aside, and for the edification of your readers, pay no attention to David Thornton when he says if you don't live in a battleground state your vote doesn't matter. Of course it matters. Every single vote matters, otherwise what would be the point of voting? We might as well have a President appointed by an elite council or board.
I'll second the "your vote matters" message. If the standard is whether it decides an election, the only person whose vote would matter is the one that breaks the tie (in which case, ALL votes in that race would matter).
But that's not the only standard or even the best one. The one I use is that every vote matters, because - like Cameron says - what's the point otherwise? Why make ANY noises about democracy or representation if you can't be bothered to pull yourself to the polls or complete a mail-in ballot?
And if you're not doing it for yourself, do it for your local election workers. We get up way before the butt-crack of dawn to make sure that the polls are ready for you to vote bright and early, AND we stay a decent amount of time AFTER the last vote is cast doing the work to properly tally up the results for our polling station and making sure that those numbers get to the right people in a timely manner so that the uncertainty about who's leading us next is minimized. There's nothing worse for a poll worker than a set of empty polls over an extended period of time.
I used the Real Clear Polling average. I think that includes Rasmussen and Trafalgar. Both tend to skew towards Republicans.
FWIW I signed up for Rasmussen email updates a while back. Their polling seems to rarely report bad news for Republicans and their commentary is pretty biased. They don’t seem to be the polling organization that they once were.
And yes, I do think votes matter. That was a bit of hyperbole, but the truth is that mathematically speaking, your vote for president is worth less than your vote in Oth elections, especially if you aren’t in a swing state.
They haven't been the same since Scott Rasmussen sold Rasmussen Reports off.
You are correct about RCP's average including Rasmussen and Trafalgar. It's one reason I don't like that average, 'cause it includes too many garbage polls.
'cause Rasmussen Reports and Trafalgar don't do quality polls, and are ranked quite low on pollster quality. Their polls add too much noise to the average.
Agree that the prez vote generally won’t matter unless you’re in a swing state.
But down ballot will, to a greater degree generally.
And as you say, the various ballot initiatives will be a draw for turnout. I wonder if they will draw out more democrats who will be in favor of protections for abortion access, or more GOP who want to deny them. I suppose Democrats generally winning most of these is a telling sign.
One of the interesting variables this cycle are the abortion ballot measures popping up on the general election ballots. I suspect those will goose turnout in ways that might be a meaningful bump for the Democrats.
I tweeted something similar this morning:
I’m pro-life, but it’s ironic that the Dobbs decision (which I agree with) may turn out to be the worst thing to happen to the prolife movement and may cost Republicans yet another election.
https://x.com/captainkudzu/status/1828801694563762495?s=61&t=X6XxCDIBmdrPHrSiKT5oaQ
I stand by my prediction that Harris wins all the same states Biden won in 2020 - plus North Carolina.
I notice that you never reference Rasmussen or Trafalger in your polling review. The last I heard, which was about 5 days ago, Rasmussen has Trump up by an average of about 4 percentage points in all the battlegrounds. Rasmussen has been more reliable than most polls in terms of accuracy. And just as an aside, and for the edification of your readers, pay no attention to David Thornton when he says if you don't live in a battleground state your vote doesn't matter. Of course it matters. Every single vote matters, otherwise what would be the point of voting? We might as well have a President appointed by an elite council or board.
I'll second the "your vote matters" message. If the standard is whether it decides an election, the only person whose vote would matter is the one that breaks the tie (in which case, ALL votes in that race would matter).
But that's not the only standard or even the best one. The one I use is that every vote matters, because - like Cameron says - what's the point otherwise? Why make ANY noises about democracy or representation if you can't be bothered to pull yourself to the polls or complete a mail-in ballot?
And if you're not doing it for yourself, do it for your local election workers. We get up way before the butt-crack of dawn to make sure that the polls are ready for you to vote bright and early, AND we stay a decent amount of time AFTER the last vote is cast doing the work to properly tally up the results for our polling station and making sure that those numbers get to the right people in a timely manner so that the uncertainty about who's leading us next is minimized. There's nothing worse for a poll worker than a set of empty polls over an extended period of time.
I used the Real Clear Polling average. I think that includes Rasmussen and Trafalgar. Both tend to skew towards Republicans.
FWIW I signed up for Rasmussen email updates a while back. Their polling seems to rarely report bad news for Republicans and their commentary is pretty biased. They don’t seem to be the polling organization that they once were.
And yes, I do think votes matter. That was a bit of hyperbole, but the truth is that mathematically speaking, your vote for president is worth less than your vote in Oth elections, especially if you aren’t in a swing state.
I explain that in more detail here:
https://www.theracketnews.com/p/conservatives-for-kamala
They haven't been the same since Scott Rasmussen sold Rasmussen Reports off.
You are correct about RCP's average including Rasmussen and Trafalgar. It's one reason I don't like that average, 'cause it includes too many garbage polls.
'cause Rasmussen Reports and Trafalgar don't do quality polls, and are ranked quite low on pollster quality. Their polls add too much noise to the average.
Scott Rasmussen's polls are good, however.
Agree that the prez vote generally won’t matter unless you’re in a swing state.
But down ballot will, to a greater degree generally.
And as you say, the various ballot initiatives will be a draw for turnout. I wonder if they will draw out more democrats who will be in favor of protections for abortion access, or more GOP who want to deny them. I suppose Democrats generally winning most of these is a telling sign.
I forget where I saw it, but paraphrasing: if it's a binary choice Americans tend to come down on the side of freedom.
Folks have differing idea of the term freedom as well.