Thankfully better off, America

This is not a Potemkin nation, our progress is real

The best time to visit a supermarket is the day before Thanksgiving. Specifically, opening time, that is if the store isn’t open 24-hours. On the day before Thanksgiving, store workers, like Santa’s elves, are supposed to perform a Potemkin miracle: the store is perfect. Every shelf is full; every item is perfectly stocked and faced. The aisles are magazine-shoot marvels of a nation brimming with plenty. It’s like something out of Soviet propaganda, or Tucker Carlson’s Russia-love videos. But in America it’s not Potemkin, it’s real…except this year, because I was disappointed, but only a little.

Photo by the author - taken November 27, 2024 at 7:00am

We live in the real world, where there’s holes in the shelves and things aren’t totally perfect. In previous years, I’ve done the supermarket walk at 7:00 a.m. on the day before Thanksgiving, to find perfection. I know, it’s a weird thing—I worked at a grocery store all through high school and have all the night crew bad secrets stored in the back of my mind. This is the first year since 2020 that I’ve seen holes in what should be perfectly stocked shelves.

I had to make an emergency egg run last night because I was one egg short of a pecan pie recipe. (Yes, that’s an emergency!) I arrived just before closing and noticed the store didn’t have pallets lined up in the aisles. I didn’t see the night crew getting ready. There were only a few employees visible. That’s when I began to realize I was not going to see perfection. Why? Maybe there weren’t enough workers. Maybe the chain realized people are simply buying less (but paying more for it). I don’t have the answer, but I do know things are a bit more bare than they have been.

Then this morning, sabotage hit me. Someone had turned off the master switch on our Bunn coffee maker. This caused the tank to not stay heated, and when I poured water into the gravity-fed system, I got a pot of weak, cold coffee, which I poured down the drain. Life isn’t perfect, but complaining is human. My brother Jay tried to cheer me up. Jay’s version of cheering me up is to tell me things aren’t like they used to be. In heaven, when I get there, the ancient saints are going to sigh and say heaven’s not like it used to be.

So the shelves are not completely full, but they’re not empty either. Our country is not what it used to be, but it’s not worse than it’s ever been either.

During COVID, we complained about shortages, but in other countries, shortages are the rule, not the pandemic-induced panic we have in America. Yet, walking into a less-than-perfect store at 7:00 a.m. on the day before Thanksgiving, I am reassured that America is still better off than we’ve been.

Inflation is awful. I agree. While I know plenty of readers on this site trot out statistics showing that wage growth has largely kept up with a lot of inflation, we all know it’s not evenly true, and it’s also not true in ways that matter—like the poorest people or people living paycheck to paycheck who aren’t poor but are stretched. A good marker for this is average credit card debt. In 2017, it was $6,725. It ballooned to $7,499 in 2019 due to COVID-19, then down to $5,221 in 2021, the result of trillions of dollars the government poured into the economy. Of course, that fueled inflation, and in 2022 average credit card debt went up to $7,951, and in 2023 it was $8,599. People who have more month than money end up living on credit, and buying less, and that’s exactly what I’m seeing on the supermarket shelves.

In some states, like California, average credit card debt tops $9,100. And with higher interest rates, those debts don’t go away easily. They take years to pay down, or families have to move to less expensive places to live—while maintaining their income, which is not always possible.

Chart source: LendingTree

Our country isn’t perfect. But in America, you can move to a better place, or at least a more affordable place. In many countries, you can’t move, or there’s nowhere better to move. In many countries, you have to leave your country to find a better place. In fact, many of those looking for better places would choose America as their first choice. America first, for immigrants. Huh.

I guarantee people coming from other countries are thankful to be here in America, inflation, less-than-perfect shelves, and all. Why shouldn’t I be thankful? I mean, in the last 20 years, America has made a lot of progress.

In 2024, for example, turkey prices are down nearly 20 percent from recent years. You’d think the turkey supply has been healthy (until they face the axe, and they all inevitably face the axe), and that leads to less expensive turkeys, says Adam Smith’s economics. But even that’s “curious” and untrue in 2024. Farmers produced 6 percent less turkeys in 2024 than in 2023—13 million less turkeys faced the axe. PETA is cheering, but not so fast: 14 million turkeys died from avian flu since 2022. In fact, it’s the lowest number of turkeys produced since 1985, yet prices are down. Why? Because people are buying less of them for Thanksgiving.

People are also buying less whole milk for pies and side dishes. But the cost of packaged stuffing (“dressing!” my southern family yells) and rolls has gone up more than 8 percent since last year. People are having less ostentatious feasts, but we’re still thankful. My family is having lasagna this year. A turkey-free Thanksgiving. But if you want a bird, you can pick one up cheap today (but don’t try to cook the frozen turkey one day before Thanksgiving—physics says you will not enjoy the results).

You know what else is cheaper? Eggs. In October, the Fed statistics showed the average price of a dozen Grade A eggs at $3.370, down from September’s price of $3.821. A lot of laying hens got wiped out by the same avian flu that hit turkeys, but are now recovering. Hooray for bioscience and food safety.

And if you’re young, I have good news for you. In 1990, the average age of homeowners was 44. In 2023, it was 42. During the height of the housing bubble in 2004-2006, it was 50, then by 2016 it had dropped to 37. Our economy is pretty resilient, and though the combination of mortgage rates and sky-high housing costs is making that home purchase outside the realm of possibility, you will eventually catch up, and younger people than you will also be able to get in on the action.

Complaining is an American pastime, but this is still a better place than it was 20 years ago, or even 15 years ago. For instance: Hepatitis C used to be something that would keep people homebound, and kill their liver slowly. Now, Direct-acting antiviral medications effectively cure Hep C. Many liver cancers which were previously untreatable now have effective therapies available to save lives. Yeah, it’s expensive, but dying is not a better alternative.

In 1985, AIDS meant death. Just 15 years, ago HIV meant taking a cocktail of drugs that might or might not work. Now, new retroviral therapies and pre-exposure drugs make HIV manageable (but still not desirable—the best prevention is don’t be promiscuous). Also, more and more cancers are treatable: metastatic melanoma used to be a death sentence, but now it can be treated and remain in remission.

Cystic Fibrosis is treatable through effective therapies and giving sufferers a more normal life expectancy and quality of life. Spinal Muscular Atrophy, when caught early, is nearly curable, as is Sickle Cell Disease, ADA-SCID (“boy in the bubble disease”), Amyloidosis, beta-thalassemia and Hemophilia. There’s now an effective treatment and vaccine for Ebola.

All kinds of drugs are available to help treat and delay Type 1 Diabetes. And Type 2 Diabetes can be treated with weight-loss and appetite control drugs like Ozempic. Diabetes leads to all kinds of other health problems, from heart issues, to circulation problems.

I spend a lot of conversational time complaining about the cost of healthcare in the U.S., and the ways Big Pharma and giant hospital conglomerates stick it to consumers. But to be honest, no money in the world can cure something for which no cure exists. And without a doubt, America is a better place to live, when living is the point.

Americans have more opportunity to live better, to live longer, to live healthier, and to live more prosperously, than ever before. And as a democratic republic, if we don’t like the bums that run our country, we can throw them out and get new bums to run the place.

So I’m thankful for the weak, cold coffee. I’m thankful for the less-than-perfect shelves. I’m thankful that short of heaven, there’s really no better country to live in than than the U.S.A. And I’m thankful that even though turkeys are cheaper this year, I’m making lasagna for Thanksgiving. We don’t have to make up our Potemkin stories of perfect places to be thankful. I’m even thankful I get to complain, which in many places, is not a right that people can exercise.

Sure, America isn’t what it used to be. And we’ve got some big problems to solve. But there’s no better time, and no better place, to live than this country, and right now.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

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