The backlash begins

And it’s not close to over

I wrote at Trump’s 100-day mark that a backlash was coming. As of last weekend, it’s here.

Violent protests in California erupted as a predictable result to ICE’s heavy handed tactics against people who are not the violent criminals that Donald Trump said he would target. Trump may have said that he would target violent criminals, but it was obvious to most of us that he would do what he is doing: Targeting almost any immigrants that he can find, including taking administrative actions that make legal immigrants illegal so they can be targeted as well.

California National Guard in Los Angeles. (Credit US Northern Command/Wikimedia)

Yes, there is a lot of justifiable anger at what Trump is doing. What is not justified is the violence. I’m going to be morally and logically consistent here and say that political violence is wrong, whether it’s carried out by BLM protesters, MAGA insurrectionists, or anti-ICE mobs.

Violence is also counterproductive. Immigration remains a strong point for Trump, but polling shows that Americans are concerned about the Administration going too far and not following due process. Violent protests against ICE play right into Trump’s hands. In fact, I’d go so far as to say Trump was waiting for and salivating at the possibility that his opponents would turn violent.

It’s no secret that Trump and Stephen Miller have looked for an excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act. Trump’s quick decision to deploy the National Guard (and now Marines) to Los Angeles is an indication that the Administration had given the matter thought prior to the outbreak of riots. The fact that they considered using the Insurrection Act in 2020 is another indication.

Trump’s use of the military breaks with tradition in that it is over the objection of the state’s governor. The legality of the order is being debated, but I will say that the government should be restoring order, but it should be the governments of Los Angeles and California that should be doing so. Trump did not wait to see whether Gavin Newsom would take the matter seriously and request help if necessary. Rather, he usurped the traditional federalist order of allowing states to handle their own affairs.

Republicans used to agree with this view. As recently as 2020, Donald Trump said that he couldn’t deploy the National Guard without a state request. As recently as last year, Kristi Noem, last seen cosplaying as an ICE agent, tweeted that the possibility of President Biden might federalize the National Guard “would be a direct attack on states' rights.”

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the legality of Trump’s deployment depends on what he asks the troops do. There is some evidence, including a statement from US Northern Command, that the troops are merely there “to support the protection of federal personnel and federal property in the greater Los Angeles area.” Such a mission is almost certainly lawful. On the other hand, if Trump attempts to use the military to engage in law enforcement, coerce California’s government, or detain political opponents, we move to gray and unconstitutional areas quickly.

As Americans, we must place some trust in our military as well. Military leaders and individual soldiers are aware of the law and the consequences if they break it. Most military people are honorable, law abiding, and patriotic. Not nearly all them are MAGA radicals.

Some MAGA supporters have favored martial law with Trump in charge. I’ve also seen people on the left calling for the military to intervene and depose Trump, so both sides can go from hot to cold and back again at the flick of a switch. Neither is probably going to happen.

Whether Trump’s actions are legal or not, they throw fuel on the fire. Bringing in the military over state objections raises the temperature and increases tensions and the possibility of additional violence.

Again, that may be the point. If Trump wants an excuse to deploy more troops around the country then more violence would play right into his hands. Even if Trump simply wants to paint his opponents as violent radicals, stoking more violence would fit the script.

I’m not sure it’s going to go according to the script. People are already uncomfortable with ICE and there are plenty of other reasons to dislike Trump. Adding chaos and violence to the mix won’t necessarily drive people into the arms of MAGA. That’s especially true if Trump is transparently provoking the violence.

If you doubt me, look back no further than 2020 when the BLM protests and riots were rocking the country. The left looked bad, but that did not make Trump look better. He lost the election that year no matter how MAGA rewrites history.

I think a big part of 2020 was that Trump fatigue, partly fueled by the domestic violence and Trump’s response to it, outweighed the public’s dislike of the violence. We could see a repeat of that dynamic if the situation continues to escalate.

I don’t think Trump’s response to the violence will help him with voters beyond his base. Even if he performs well, a very questionable possibility, it will be the old story of “Trump solves problem created by Trump.” The bottom line is that the violence would almost certainly not be happening under any other president. It’s a backlash to Donald Trump’s bad (and at times unlawful and unconstitutional) policy.

Like the Trump ads that purported to show chaos from Biden’s tenure, but actually showed riots from Trump’s first term, what we are seeing is Trump’s America. Chaos is a big part of Trump’s brand.

Violence is not the answer to Trump’s bad policies. Better answers are to let the courts work and focus on changing the government in upcoming elections.

That’s tough advice for people who are seeing their friends, family, and coworkers being detained and deported, however, sometimes for no good reason. Sometimes when they’ve followed the rules and done it the right way.

When people who are here legally or in the asylum system (remember it’s legal to request asylum after entering illegally) are shipped off to a Salvadoran prison for an undetermined periods of time with no recourse, people get desperate. And desperate people do desperate things… like attacking immigration officers and burning cars.

Yes, the violence is wrong, but it isn’t just caused by the people taking to the streets. I am very certain that Trump knew something like this would happen. I think he wanted it to happen because he believes it will be to his political advantage. It’s another way to create fear and division and focus hatred on minority scapegoat. It’s right out of the authoritarian playbook.

It’s going to get worse, and among the fallout will be further erosion of the trust in our government and institutions. That is one of the many of effects of the Trump Administration that will take decades to fix, always assuming we survive the next few years.

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