1,228 days since my first COVID vaccination shot and I still haven't died.
While a lab leak was never impossible nor improbable, zoonotic cross-over is still the most likely cause.
Competing slates of electors from a state has happened in the past, and once a recount is completed then the correct slate is utilized - just like in Hawaii's 1960 recount. SCOTUS cut that process short, when they should not have. They harmed our electoral system, they did not preserve it.
1960 was 3 electoral votes in an election won by 84 electoral votes. It would not have changed the result. Florida in 2000 would have. Apples and orangutans.
That should be irrelevant: the priority is to ensure that the correct slate of electors is utilized, and thus that the outcome of the election is correct.
How can it be irrelevant? Changing the outcome of a presidential election is a very relevant consideration versus changing one state’s electors in a race that is already decided.
The electoral count is done when it is certified by the states. That's the way it was in 2000 and the way it was in 2020. All of Gore's complaints and Trump's complaints were for naught. The states decide and the Supreme Court does not interfere. If the states get it wrong, it's up to them to correct it next time.
...but the Supreme Court did interfere in 2000, overruling Florida's Supreme Court. It was done to ostensibly protect Bush's legitimacy as president, but instead has cast a shadow - one that would not exist with the recount being completed (if he had still won).
SCOTUS didn't interfere politically. It ruled on the applicability of the 14th Amendment, which Florida violated. Rehnquist authored the opinion, Scalia concurring (on some points, on others he dissented). The issue was not whether there were "undervotes" not counted, it was that Florida had no cure--no way to reasonably determine the winner under ad-hoc recount rules that did not apply statewide. In any case, SCOTUS recognized that this issue had to be decided--or not--with speed, else the path this election would take is as I described it: thrown to the House and Bush wins a disputed election. There was no circumstance where Florida could meet its own fuzzy standards to change its results, and the Florida Supreme Court had no authority to order the secretary of state to decertify the electoral college results and certify a different slate. Therefore it would go to the House. SCOTUS prevented a bigger problem by taking the heat for a smaller problem.
I stated why it should be irrelevant: the overriding consideration should be based on ensuring the electors are correct per the actual results of the state elections. Calling a cessation of a recount that is in-process does not ensure that the correct slate was put in place, and thus provides legitimate concern regarding the results.
To borrow a phrase from the construction industry: "Measure twice, cut once."
And should they actually confirm a lab leak in Wuhan what exactly could we have done differently or do in the future? We have no control over China.
Personally I still observe the spacing between people in line, but I have done that my whole life. I hate feeling someone’s breath on my neck and it isn’t going to make the line go faster if you decide we are intimate enough for such close proximity!
We managed to avoid covid until August 2023 during my mother’s hospitalization and passing. We haven’t had the flu or a really bad cold. We still wipe down the shopping carts to avoid any number of germs, but again I have done that most of my life. Yes, I carried wipes in my purse. Still do.
At some point personally responsibility becomes essential in protecting myself and others.
Now it’s up to the voters in Georgia to get rid of MTG! She will forever be a stain on our history.
Hang on now. It’s not “the voters in Georgia.” It’s the voters in Georgia’s 14th CD. I don’t live there and neither does David. My friends who do live there are embarrassed by MTG. But the majority want her in the way Europeans still want to see Nickelback on tour.
How would the lab leak theory, if in fact true, be a bigger deal than J6 or all the other atrocities of the Trump admin? I’m not saying it isn’t a big deal, it isn’t significant. But as Kim notes, we don’t control China. Maybe it would change policy around funding and cooperating with labs in China… but would that even makes things better. Would disengaging with China make a similar future incident more or less likely? I don’t know.
If this was a lab leak (and, I agree that it *feels* like the simplest answer, cue Occam and whatnot), it doesn’t follow that it was an intentional leak with some nefarious intentions. I always felt like this was always at least part of the pushback against some corners yelling “lab leak.” There was a conspiracy theory involving that, and in the public mind/zeitgeist, those sorts of arguments easily get conflated and confused.
What Matt says or thinks is even less meaningful than how the virus came to be. No matter how much anyone digs, empirical proof or data will never be found. It's like arguing whether trump disbanding the NSC in 2018 made the pandemic worse. Some of the team was moved to other agencies while others left. Would it have mattered if Bolton/trump left them in place?
What really matters and should never be lost is the number of deaths that occurred. The per-capita numbers when compared to Canada were far higher. The cluster flock that resulted from having a president who was far from capable of handling the crisis will always be the albatross hung around his neck.
Back to Matt, what he wrote, what he thinks is immaterial when laid alongside what trump et all did on Jan 6. Just saying.
This is an extremely long but fascinating read about a “lab leak” debate.
I’m not sure Yglesias is suggesting Gore supporters should have rioted in 2000. It would never have even seemed an option back then. I think he’s saying they would’ve had a much better case than the Jan 6 numbskulls. It might be a faint hope plea to the trumpists today who have no problem talking about doing so for an election still 5 months away. Such is the difference btw a Gore and an Orange.
Yeah—while I didn’t read Yglesias’ piece, from what was quoted here, it doesn’t sound at all like he was advocating for anything similar to J6. I’m surprised Steve doesn’t see the significant differences. J6 was intended to literally obstruct the transfer of power. There was a literal gallows constructed on the Capital grounds with mob chants to hang Mike Pence. There were clear plans to reverse the legitimately decided election.
That vs. a pressure campaign with protests? I’ll allow for details in Yglesias’ piece that are more explicitly comparable… maybe it’s there.
1,228 days since my first COVID vaccination shot and I still haven't died.
While a lab leak was never impossible nor improbable, zoonotic cross-over is still the most likely cause.
Competing slates of electors from a state has happened in the past, and once a recount is completed then the correct slate is utilized - just like in Hawaii's 1960 recount. SCOTUS cut that process short, when they should not have. They harmed our electoral system, they did not preserve it.
1960 was 3 electoral votes in an election won by 84 electoral votes. It would not have changed the result. Florida in 2000 would have. Apples and orangutans.
That should be irrelevant: the priority is to ensure that the correct slate of electors is utilized, and thus that the outcome of the election is correct.
How can it be irrelevant? Changing the outcome of a presidential election is a very relevant consideration versus changing one state’s electors in a race that is already decided.
The electoral count is done when it is certified by the states. That's the way it was in 2000 and the way it was in 2020. All of Gore's complaints and Trump's complaints were for naught. The states decide and the Supreme Court does not interfere. If the states get it wrong, it's up to them to correct it next time.
...but the Supreme Court did interfere in 2000, overruling Florida's Supreme Court. It was done to ostensibly protect Bush's legitimacy as president, but instead has cast a shadow - one that would not exist with the recount being completed (if he had still won).
SCOTUS didn't interfere politically. It ruled on the applicability of the 14th Amendment, which Florida violated. Rehnquist authored the opinion, Scalia concurring (on some points, on others he dissented). The issue was not whether there were "undervotes" not counted, it was that Florida had no cure--no way to reasonably determine the winner under ad-hoc recount rules that did not apply statewide. In any case, SCOTUS recognized that this issue had to be decided--or not--with speed, else the path this election would take is as I described it: thrown to the House and Bush wins a disputed election. There was no circumstance where Florida could meet its own fuzzy standards to change its results, and the Florida Supreme Court had no authority to order the secretary of state to decertify the electoral college results and certify a different slate. Therefore it would go to the House. SCOTUS prevented a bigger problem by taking the heat for a smaller problem.
I stated why it should be irrelevant: the overriding consideration should be based on ensuring the electors are correct per the actual results of the state elections. Calling a cessation of a recount that is in-process does not ensure that the correct slate was put in place, and thus provides legitimate concern regarding the results.
To borrow a phrase from the construction industry: "Measure twice, cut once."
And should they actually confirm a lab leak in Wuhan what exactly could we have done differently or do in the future? We have no control over China.
Personally I still observe the spacing between people in line, but I have done that my whole life. I hate feeling someone’s breath on my neck and it isn’t going to make the line go faster if you decide we are intimate enough for such close proximity!
We managed to avoid covid until August 2023 during my mother’s hospitalization and passing. We haven’t had the flu or a really bad cold. We still wipe down the shopping carts to avoid any number of germs, but again I have done that most of my life. Yes, I carried wipes in my purse. Still do.
At some point personally responsibility becomes essential in protecting myself and others.
Now it’s up to the voters in Georgia to get rid of MTG! She will forever be a stain on our history.
Hang on now. It’s not “the voters in Georgia.” It’s the voters in Georgia’s 14th CD. I don’t live there and neither does David. My friends who do live there are embarrassed by MTG. But the majority want her in the way Europeans still want to see Nickelback on tour.
Sorry for deleting her congressional district number from my memory. Up to them!
I’ve gotta +1 on this comment.
How would the lab leak theory, if in fact true, be a bigger deal than J6 or all the other atrocities of the Trump admin? I’m not saying it isn’t a big deal, it isn’t significant. But as Kim notes, we don’t control China. Maybe it would change policy around funding and cooperating with labs in China… but would that even makes things better. Would disengaging with China make a similar future incident more or less likely? I don’t know.
If this was a lab leak (and, I agree that it *feels* like the simplest answer, cue Occam and whatnot), it doesn’t follow that it was an intentional leak with some nefarious intentions. I always felt like this was always at least part of the pushback against some corners yelling “lab leak.” There was a conspiracy theory involving that, and in the public mind/zeitgeist, those sorts of arguments easily get conflated and confused.
What Matt says or thinks is even less meaningful than how the virus came to be. No matter how much anyone digs, empirical proof or data will never be found. It's like arguing whether trump disbanding the NSC in 2018 made the pandemic worse. Some of the team was moved to other agencies while others left. Would it have mattered if Bolton/trump left them in place?
What really matters and should never be lost is the number of deaths that occurred. The per-capita numbers when compared to Canada were far higher. The cluster flock that resulted from having a president who was far from capable of handling the crisis will always be the albatross hung around his neck.
Back to Matt, what he wrote, what he thinks is immaterial when laid alongside what trump et all did on Jan 6. Just saying.
https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim?r=pbogx&utm_medium=ios
This is an extremely long but fascinating read about a “lab leak” debate.
I’m not sure Yglesias is suggesting Gore supporters should have rioted in 2000. It would never have even seemed an option back then. I think he’s saying they would’ve had a much better case than the Jan 6 numbskulls. It might be a faint hope plea to the trumpists today who have no problem talking about doing so for an election still 5 months away. Such is the difference btw a Gore and an Orange.
Yeah—while I didn’t read Yglesias’ piece, from what was quoted here, it doesn’t sound at all like he was advocating for anything similar to J6. I’m surprised Steve doesn’t see the significant differences. J6 was intended to literally obstruct the transfer of power. There was a literal gallows constructed on the Capital grounds with mob chants to hang Mike Pence. There were clear plans to reverse the legitimately decided election.
That vs. a pressure campaign with protests? I’ll allow for details in Yglesias’ piece that are more explicitly comparable… maybe it’s there.