The BLS scandal and trusting Trump

Plus, the return of the screwball comedy

By now, there has been a lot of ink spilled on Donald Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. McEntarfaer’s dismissal has the potential to be one of the most damaging actions Trump has taken so far, because replacing objective federal bureaucrats with MAGA loyalists could undermine the faith in government statistics about the economy that has allowed American investments to become the world’s safe harbor.

There have been a great many presidents who were unhappy with the job numbers that the BLS turned out, but none have ever called the numbers fake and fired the messenger before Trump. Trump’s MAGA defenders have tried to shift the focus from the numbers to McEntarfer’s competence, but Trump keeps undermining their efforts. From the beginning and continuing this week, the president cited “the numbers” as the reason for the dismissal.

Image created by ChatGPT

Among the reasons cited to defend Trump’s move is the fact that the BLS often revises its initial figures. As the most recent report was issued with a disappointing 73,000 jobs created, May and June figures were also revised down. These changes don’t just benefit one side. An ABC News fact check pointed out that BLS revisions to jobs data after the election were beneficial to Trump, and the New York Times helpfully notes that Trump praised the BLS in February when its numbers were more positive for him.

Back in 2013, the BLS posted an explanation for why job numbers are sometimes revised, saying, “The initial estimates of payroll employment are a preliminary look at what occurred in each month. It is [a] quick but lower-resolution snapshot of what went on in the job market for a particular month. Because the revised estimates are based on more complete data, they create a higher resolution picture—and occasionally the revised data produce a different picture altogether.”

In other words, the picture often changes as additional information comes in. More data means a more complete and accurate summary.

While the president has not yet announced a replacement for McEntarfer, it seems obvious that the new appointee will be someone who will give Trump the numbers that he wants. The numbers that he wants are obviously good numbers.

What we are seeing here is what you’d expect to see in China or a banana republic. The supreme leader doesn’t like reality, so he fires the objective analyst and finds someone to cook up some better numbers. At one end of the scale, we have bureaucrats fudging statistics, and at the other, we see the manic Hitler of “Downfall” ordering imaginary armies to the attack. It should be seriously concerning when our leaders so obviously cannot accept reality.

What could happen if the world loses faith in the American economy? For one thing, the fact that US treasury certificates are such a safe harbor investment has helped the US to avoid a come-to-Jesus moment over our ballooning national debt. If world investors abandon US treasuries, it would be devastating for the economy as the possibility of default looms. Likewise, the dollar (currently at a three-year low) has been the world reserve currency since WWII, but many of our rivals would like to see it dethroned. It would help their case if faith in the American economy and financial statistics were undermined. A loss of the dollar’s dominance would have implications ranging from global trade to debt financing to reshaping the global balance of power.

One problem for Trump is that the federal government does not have a monopoly on economic data. That is going to be especially true going forward if private analysts find that government data is no longer trustworthy. Financial analysts can use forensic techniques to assess the true state of China’s economy, and they can do the same for the US.

The obvious truth here seems to be that Trump’s tariff wars are hurting the economy. Even though the tariffs are generating revenue, as Republicans are quick to point out, that money is coming out of American pockets since tariff costs are shifted to the end users. Consumer prices are rising, and inflation is once again picking up as the tariffs kick in. Imports and exports are both declining, reflecting the higher costs of trade and a slowing economy. What this means is that consumers are getting hit from both sides. Prices are rising, and the job market is cooling.

Donald Trump can deny the true state of the economy as he denied the mounting death toll from COVID-19 and infamously altered a hurricane track prediction with a Sharpie during his first term, but the disconnect will be obvious to those on Main Street who are losing their jobs and watching prices rise. It isn’t clear if Trump is only fooling himself or if he thinks Americans will be fooled by his shenanigans, but if Republicans not only don’t have a practical solution to the slowing economy (like stopping the trade wars) but fail to even acknowledge that a problem exists, they will face a bloodbath at the polls.

Even worse, the cognitive dissonance of watching the government say one thing while seeing a different reality with our own eyes will breed further distrust in government and our institutions. That does not bode well for recovering to normalcy in the post-Trump years.

I have to ask myself if Donald Trump is similarly hostile to bearers of bad news in other areas. Even though we aren’t aware of other officials being fired for presenting bad numbers, I suspect that he is, based on prior reports, including those of the chief executive hurling food at the wall. That presents not only an economic problem but a national security threat.

Leaders need people who are willing to give them bad news, but the evidence is that Trump surrounds himself with yes-men. Problems can’t be solved and threats can’t be neutralized if subordinates are afraid to tell you that there is a problem. Take Trump’s refusal to acknowledge bad economic data and then consider how he might react to an imminent Russian cyber threat or a looming Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

The firing of Erika McEntarfer is a red flag not just because it signals that we may no longer be able to trust federal economic data, but because of what it says about Donald Trump and his perception of reality. The president all too often dismisses any reality that reflects negatively on himself or that deviates from his perception of the world. Those who disagree will be shown the door.

Even worse is the fact that the Republican majority will not be calling Trump out for his denials of reality. Rather, they will be affirming and rubber-stamping them.

Donald Trump’s policy is going to be based on presidential whim and what Field Marshall Erwin Rommel called wolkenkuckucksheim or “cloud cuckoo land.” (You may also remember this from “The LEGO Movie.” Who knew “The LEGO Movie” referenced a WWII German general?) Trump is a vaunted businessman, but businesses that run on wishes rather than reality go bankrupt.

Ignoring and suppressing reality is no way to run a business, let alone a country. The bad news is that, barring some sort of interruption to his term of office, we are stuck with him for the next 1,236 days. After that will come decades of work repairing the damage.

MOVIE RECOMMENDATIONS: Last week. two old classics got reboots, and I watched both. “Happy Gilmore 2” is on Netflix, and “The Naked Gun” is in theaters. If you’re a fan of the screwball comedies of the 80s and 90s, do yourself a favor and watch them. Neither movie is as good as the original, but they are definitely good for some laughs.

“Happy Gilmore” features a massive cast of cameos, while “The Naked Gun” stars Liam Neeson and Pamela Anderson, who are surprisingly funny. I couldn’t help but notice that Neeson and Leslie Nielsen shared the same initials and a history of serious roles before veering into the comedy genre.

There were numerous guffaws in the theater, although I think my 17-year-old daughter was probably the youngest person there. (And no, I wouldn’t recommend them for anyone younger.) One of my favorite moments involves OJ Simpson, but I won’t spoil it.

I’m happy to see a return to good-natured, politically incorrect nonsense comedies. That’s especially true since these are both well done.

I am serious. And don’t call me “Shirley.”

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