The greatest bait and switch in Middle East political history

Poor Hamas, nobody loves you.

Hamas came to power the same way it will be removed: by war. Contrary to the retconned narrative, Hamas was not elected to govern Gaza. It was actually elected to be the ruling party of all Palestinian-controlled territory. The eliminated Ismail Haniyeh formed a new government after the January 2006 elections, the first in the Palestinian territories in a decade, and the first hint of democratic rule after Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in September 2005.

This image shows (or resembles) a symbol of Islamic terrorism, such as al-Qaeda or the “Islamic State”, which has been banned by Austria, China, Germany, Russia and other countries.

The United States, through USAID, contributed $2.3 million in cash to make Mahmoud Abbas look good, though most Palestinians believed his Fatah Party to be the source of much of their troubles. Hamas ran a campaign based on “Change and Reform” (one step from “Hope and Change”). Mostly, Hamas blamed Fatah for being too chummy with Israel, and vowed to change that calculus. Israel openly opposed Hamas, arresting its members, and closing its campaign offices in Israeli-controlled areas. Israelis knew what the Islamic Brotherhood (Hamas’ parent organization) is about: it is about jihad—destroying Israel and wiping Jews from the face of the earth.

Hamas didn’t run on what it is about. It ran—and won—on an anti-corruption platform, along with increased internal security. It promised to clean up the open corruption and incompetence that plagued the Palestinian Authority. It pulled off the greatest bait and switch in Middle East political history. At the time Haniyeh formed his first government, an exit poll found greater than three quarters of Palestinians favored a peace treaty with Israel; about the same number believed Hamas should change its policy about recognizing the Jewish state; over 80 percent wanted a national unity government. Fatah rejected Hamas and refused to participate in a coalition with it; 72.5 percent of Palestinians disagreed with Fatah’s stance.

Hamas had no intention of keeping its campaign promises, except the one about internal security. Haniyeh offered plenty of that. Fatah, led by Abbas, encouraged by the west, went to war with Hamas. Abbas favored an approach to statehood through the Oslo Accords negotiated with Israel through President Bill Clinton. Hamas favored eliminating Israel by any means possible. Though voters in the Palestinian territory believed Hamas would come around to peace, they realized their votes didn’t matter to Abbas and Fatah, who wanted to hold power, completely, and forever. Note that there have been no national elections in Palestinian territories since 2006—Abbas won’t let it happen again.

While the west, including NATO members Turkey and Britain, and EU members helped Fatah with logistical support, weapons, and training, Hamas quickly built a 6,000-man security force (the “Executive Force”) using cash from Iran and Syria. Haniyeh’s first move to consolidate control in Gaza was to take an Israeli hostage. Using a tunnel out of Gaza, terrorists kidnapped Gilad Shalit on June 25, 2006. Shalit has never been returned to Israel. Israel responded by arresting 49 Hamas members including elected officials and ministers in the West Bank, and by military force in Gaza. This served to gather more strength for Hamas’ military recruiting.

In June, 2007, Hamas and Fatah were engaged in open warfare. By June 15, Hamas had wiped Fatah out and seized all power in Gaza. Despite the western powers’ attempts to stop Hamas from taking over, not only did they win in Gaza militarily, they won the hearts and minds of many Palestinians who no longer believed a two-state solution with Israel was possible, since Israel openly meddled in their election.

Here’s a shocking fact:

If you were born in Gaza when Hamas took over, you’d now be eighteen, and have known no other government. You’d have been weaned on terrorism, and trained to hate those who exercise control of your borders. You’d be trained to fight, possibly dig tunnels, and kill Israelis when you could. If you were selected, you might be one of Hamas’ armed fighters. You’d be a willing terrorist. And you’d be part of the nearly 50 percent of Gazans who are 18 and younger. There is no shortage of people who are willing to fight and die for Hamas.

Now Israel, President Donald Trump, and most of the western world, is calling Hamas’ bluff. That is, if they are bluffing, and I am fairly sure they’re not bluffing.

President Trump’s 20-point plan to stop the fighting in Gaza involves Hamas giving up its political power and its arms. Replacing Hamas would be a “Board of Peace,” supervising a temporary transitional apolitical Palestinian committee. The board will be (of course) chaired by Trump himself, along with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The board and committee will run Gaza and be in charge of redevelopment, funding, and governance until the Palestinian Authority completes a reform process.

The end result will be a “New Gaza,” a peaceful, prosperous, internationally recognized body with its own International Stabilization Force (I.S.F.) training a new police and security force. The “New Gaza” will be free of Israel, which will withdraw, but will still have tremendous influence.

All of this hinges on the tiny detail of Hamas agreeing to release all hostages and cooperating with the deal framework.

The western powers, and the Middle East nations (apart from Iran), say they are on board with the plan. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even apologized to Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani for its strike on Doha. Netanyahu said it would never happen again. Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia welcomed the “sincere efforts” of Trump to end the Gaza war.

President Emmanuel Macron of France backed the plan, posting on X, “Hamas has no choice but to release all hostages and follow this plan.”

Of course Hamas has a choice. And they will likely choose to fight again. The called bluff will be called again, and raised. Why? Because Hamas has learned the lesson over the last 18 years that only by opposing Israel will they win the hearts and minds of their own people, and the hearts and minds of much of the west will follow, since Israel clearly has the military advantage, and to the victim goes the sympathy, while Israel remains the oppressor.

The west, including Canada, Australia, and Spain, who have not (reportedly, at least for now) weighed in on the Trump plan, have really sent no love for Hamas, though they’ve done the terrorists an enormous favor. The U.N. and all the nations that have recognized the “State of Palestine” have not recognized Hamas as its government, though technically, the last national election put Hamas in power in both Gaza and the West Bank. They recognized that Israel should not run things in the Palestinian territories, and especially in Gaza, but they didn’t give the nod to Hamas, either.

But their move will almost guarantee that Hamas will remain in power in Gaza. Giving up the hostages will mean that Israel will stop fighting, but without hostages, should hostilities heat up, nothing will restrain Israel. So Hamas will keep the hostages. They will continue playing whack-a-mole with tunnels. They will continue interdicting efforts to bring aid to the Gazan people. They will continue to claim Israel is committing genocide. They will continue to fight and launch rockets into Israel.

President Trump said he’d “fully back” Israel’s efforts to “finish” the job in Gaza, meaning destroy Hamas, if Hamas didn’t agree to the deal. Hamas will hold Trump to his word. They are counting on TACO—Trump Always Chickens Out—to take hold. Or at least Trump getting bored and washing his hands of the problem. All the western nations and money-hungry sheiks and emirs want a piece of Trump’s peace, but they are well prepared to shelve Israel and continue funneling cash and prizes to Hamas when Trump tires of the game.

But who knows? I may be wrong. It’s possible that Gazans have grown so sick of picking their way through the rubble of their former cities while Israel forcefully warns them to evacuate this way hither and yon, and back again, that they are willing to stand up to Hamas. Then again, Hamas is perfectly willing to use those 18-year-olds to kill the people (their own people) who elected them before those children were born. That way, they get to hold on to power, and continue their primary goal: the elimination of Israel and the spread of global jihad.

Eventually, when the Trump plan is a war-torn and tattered piece of history, and the next thing comes along for Trump to bat at, like a distracted tomcat (like abusing the legal system to pursue his political enemies), the nations now pledging their support for the “Peace Board” can go right back to what they were doing. And Israel will be left holding the bag for destroying Hamas, which, again, has in the neighborhood of a half million young men and children sitting around with nothing better to do but fight Israel.

These young men will be the next Hamas leaders. Many of them will receive their training in Israeli prisons. Many others will learn in the dank tunnels under Gaza. Some will be trained by the Houthis or the Iranians. And some will join the U.N. as aid workers with a special side hustle, or Al Jazeera as journalists who moonlight as lookouts pointing out IDF activity to their friends. Israel will always have plenty of war to fight, because of Trump’s “full backing.”

Listen, as much as I am a skeptic here, I really do hope Macron is right, and that Hamas has no choice but to accept the Trump deal. Because in truth, nobody loves Hamas, not even the people under its boot. But the people under Hamas’ boot believe they share the same destiny as Hamas. They simply don’t know that the only road to Palestinian statehood lies with the group’s death. So they’ll continue to fight.

Hamas has pulled off the great bait and switch. First to the Palestinian people, then to the world. Then to Israel, which it lulled into complacency before plunging in the blade. Then to Donald Trump, then to the west. And once again, to its own people. If only someone would love them, which, for the love of God and all that is good, can only happen if the evil cohort that calls itself Hamas, dies, once and for all.

May it happen soon, but I wouldn’t bet on it happening voluntarily.

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