The pitied dozen and Israel's Iran slap fight

Care to bet on the over/under days until a mistrial?

Let’s start with Israel and Iran. Iran waited until after the end of Ramadan to attack Israel, so as not to spoil a holy day in Islam with a phony war. Yes, Iran attacked with real weapons, and yes they could have done a lot of damage to Israel, had any of them actually made it to Israel, but as I’ve dealt with before, the attack was not meant to damage Israel in a meaningful way, but to convey a message.

Photo by Zach Miles on Unsplash

Israel could have waited until after Passover, which begins at sundown on Monday, to respond, but the nation’s leaders decided to get it over with. Overnight, Israel hit Iran using either a missile or small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran. Reports vary. The U.S. says it was a missile. Iran says drones. Israel is mum about the whole thing, and Iranian official media is downplaying the event.

There were reportedly explosions heard in Isfahan, which is known for its beautiful Atiq Mosque, built in the eighth century, and the Grand Bazaar built by Shah Abbas the Great in 1620. Iranian media showed peaceful video of an undamaged Isfahan shining in the morning sun, mountains gleaming in the distance. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that there has been no damage to Iran’s nuclear sites, while the IRGC, which controls Iran’s nuclear facilities, posted a video showing no damage to the Isfahan nuclear site.

Israel hit something, likely something of value, but we don’t know what. They hit it with something, likely some weapon that Iran’s military either didn’t pick up on radar (Iran says they never detected any incoming aircraft or missiles over its border), or was fired from inside Iran. Iranian air defense batteries fired at phantoms over Isfahan and then a spokesman said Israel had “only made a failed and humiliating attempt to fly quadcopters and the quadcopters have also been shot down.”

Fat chance.

There were also explosions reported in Iraq and Syria. Syrian defense officials said an Israeli missile struck an air defense site in the south. But again, Israel says nothing.

This was the Middle East “jungle rules” version of a slap fight. It’s a phony, but very real, war. As the ayatollahs, Bashar al-Assad, and the Russians know, in Israel’s sphere of military influence, the IDF does as it pleases. That doesn’t mean there aren’t giant threats out there, or that the IDF accomplishes (any of) its missions. Hizbollah could devastate northern Israel, as far south as Haifa or the outskirts of Tel Aviv. The toll on Hizbollah, and Lebanon, would be catastrophic if they did. They know this.

The Egyptians are preparing for Israel’s operation to finish things in Gaza with a Rafah operation. I doubt that will start that before, or during, Passover. Hopefully, there will be a lull in the Middle East for a week or so while Jews celebrate the angel of death passing over their homes in Goshen—while they were slaves in Egypt.

Then it will back to the grim work of maintaining the one-and-a-half state solution that seems to be locked in and inescapable as Israel and the Palestinians are entangled in a deadly embrace. Meanwhile, at the U.N., the U.S. blocked a Security Council motion to recognize Palestine as a state. For that, President Joe Biden lost another ten votes in Michigan and Minnesota, but he was going to lose them anyway.

That was my segue into politics, weak as it is. And now we talk about the most pitied dozen people in America right now. I’m talking about the 12 jurors (and there’s alternates too, who are in danger of pity) seated in the trial of Donald J. Trump for election interference—no, falsifying business records—no, actually falsifying business records to cover up the crime of election interference, a felony.

The case is simple, but complex, because legally, it hangs on some facts that are not only disputed, but strain the definitions of motive and guilt. On the surface, election cases involving money are fairly easy to prove. There’s money, and a record of how it’s spent. Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen paid off Stormy Daniels and had her sign an NDA to shut up about her alleged relationship with Trump. Trump paid Cohen to reimburse him, and called it a legal expense. Cohen went to prison and had to pay $1.4 million, plus forfeit $500,000, for tax evasion, making an illegal campaign contribution, and trying to influence an election by making that contribution.

That was a crime, and Cohen says Trump ordered him to pay Daniels, then paid him back. But Cohen worked for Trump personally (which is why Cohen’s suit against the Trump Organization was dismissed), yet was paid by the Trump Organization. Trump’s CFO has spent time in prison, and is going back to Riker’s (a pitiable old man) for perjury. These people all lie. They lied for Trump, who ordered them to lie.

But was it Trump, the Trump Organization (which was found to be guilty of all kinds of lies by a New York judge), or Cohen who is the primary criminal? It’s tough to make a case against the capo di tutti capi, even when all the decisions point back to him. The business records falsification charge, on its own, is worthless because it’s long past the statute of limitations, and it’s a misdemeanor. The election influence charge is difficult because prosecutors have to prove that Trump would not have ordered the hush money payment if he wasn’t weeks away from an election for president. But Trump had many reasons to pay off the porn star, and in the past had made other hush money payments when he wasn’t running for president.

I pity the jurors who have to sit through this snoozy slog of paperwork, testimony, allegations that have been plastered all over the press for eight years. And they have to believe, somehow, that this case that spawned completely from politics, isn’t about politics.

Plus, they are likely in danger, if not physical danger. Judge Juan Merchan, the man most likely to try to order Donald J. Trump to shut up or get detention (fat chance), has ordered the media to hush itself on details about jurors. One juror already asked to be dismissed over worries about her details being publicly known. The AP reported:

The names of the jurors are supposed to be a secret, but the dismissed juror told Merchan she had friends, colleagues and family members contacting her to ask whether she was on the case. “I don’t believe at this point I can be fair and unbiased and let the outside influences not affect my decision-making in the courtroom,” she said.

New York City is a big place, but really it’s a small place, because those twelve jurors have families, coworkers, and a hounding media, not to mention a loudmouth, bombastic, thin-skinned, threatening man glaring at them. Their privacy and any semblance of normal life is destroyed, possibly permanently. I pity them.

I also believe there’s a decent chance of a mistrial. The possibilities are bountiful: a deadlock. Threats to jurors. Improper disclosure. Trump being a jackass. The over-under on a mistrial is measured in days. Of course, the trial could go all the way to the jury deliberation room, and the jury could look at the facts and determine that yes, Trump ordered Cohen to pay Stormy Daniels, then covered it up so it would not get out during a close election. Then Trump is guilty of a felony, which will quickly multiply when his documents case comes up in Miami.

But in the meantime, those poor people in the jury box are to be pitied. I live in Fulton County, Georgia. If the incompetent and mildly smelling of the must that comes with corruption, Fulton County DA’s office, ever gets to trial on Trump’s RICO case, I could possibly receive a summons to be in the jury pool. If that happens, and you never hear from me again, you know why.