Touch and goes
There are quite a few breaking stories today that are worthy of attention. Rather than doing a deep dive on any one of them, I’m going to do quick hits on a variety of topics. Fasten your seatbelts and and close your tray tables because here we go.
MIKE LINDELL SUBPOENAED: My Pillow guru Mike Lindell was the latest big name in the Trump orbit to be served with a federal subpoena. New York Magazine details how Lindell was hemmed in at the drive-thru of a Mankato, Minnesota Hardee’s by FBI vehicles. The agents hopped out and served Lindell with a search warrant for his phone.
Much of the debate about the subpoena revolves around the timing, which is less than two months before the midterm election. The DOJ has long had a policy of noninterference in elections as Lawfare explains, but that policy has not been ironclad. Most notably, the Obama DOJ investigated Hillary Clinton during the runup to the 2016 election. This investigation and James Comey’s ham-handed handling of the matter plausibly cost Clinton the election.
The policy is somewhat vague in its details and has varied across Administrations, but a common theme is that investigators “may never select the timing of investigative steps or criminal charges for the purpose of affecting any election, or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party.”
Lindell and the other Trump hangers-on aren’t candidates or party officials, but is it fair to say that public subpoenas for them could give advantage or disadvantage to a particular party? Maybe, but that would require several assumptions. Among them is the idea that Lindell is so closely aligned with the Republican Party that to subpoena him would harm the GOP’s electoral chances.
Per Lindell’s statements, the investigation seems to center on his claims that the 2020 election was stolen. We could ask why the subpoena has taken almost two years to be served, but this fact doesn’t necessarily break with past strategy. We do know that many other subpoenas have been issued over the past 18 months to Trump associates involved in the alleged plot to overturn the election.
Often, the DOJ starts with low-level conspirators and moves up the chain toward the bosses. That necessarily takes time and that may well be what we are seeing here.
LINDSEY GRAHAM’S TONEDEAF BILL: Lindsey Graham has proposed a 15-week federal abortion ban. Graham’s plan is tonedeaf for two reasons.
The first is that the Dobbs decision found that abortion was a practice that could be regulated by the states and that there was no constitutional right to abortion. After decades of arguing that abortion was a state right issue and getting the Supreme Court to finally rule that this was so, Graham is now shifting to argue that the federal government has the authority to ban abortion nationwide.
The second point is that Republicans are starting to take a beating on the abortion issue. A host of very strict state laws and bills is now creating a backlash that seems to be driving pro-choice voters to the polls in droves. The most famous example was the the defeat of the Kansas constitutional amendment over the summer, but the phenomenon appears to have played into some special elections as well.
Mitch McConnell is probably not happy with Graham for shining a spotlight on GOP abortion policy at a time when McConnell would much rather talk about inflation or Hunter Biden or practically anything else.
SPEAKING OF INFLATION: New inflation data yesterday painted a picture of persistent price problems. As the AP notes, food and fuel prices tended to moderate, but core inflation numbers that exclude these items ticked up sharply in month-to-month numbers since June. The disappointing numbers led to a sharp selloff on Wall Street due to the widespread expectations of further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
The inflationary pressure is blamed on the strong job and wage markets. Very low unemployment has led to wage increases as businesses boost compensation to attract and retain workers. This demand-driven inflation is in contrast to the supply-side problems of the past year which were caused by supply chain issues and market interruptions from the pandemic and Ukraine war.
Further rate hikes boost the probability that the economy will fall into a recession, which as Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker taught us, is the prescription for inflation. The superheated economy needs be cooled off and that might well mean a contraction.
In keeping with the touch-and-go theme, I’d like to see a soft landing, but the Fed is having a hard time bringing the bird in.
RAIL STRIKE LOOMS: Ironically, the economy could be cooled by another looming problem, the impending possible rail strike. A number of freight rail unions have agreed to new contracts, but at least two unions are still holding out.
President Biden prevented a rail strike in July by Executive Order, but the 60-day cooling off period is set to expire on Friday. Engineers and conductors say they will strike if they don’t get changes to on-call rules that severely impact their quality of life.
A strike would reintroduce supply chain problems similar to the shipping crisis of 2021 and broadly impact the national economy. That might put a damper on hiring and wages, but it could also cause shortages and boost prices.
UKRAINE UPDATE: The extent of the Russian disaster on the Kharkiv front is just becoming understood. Business Insider reports that the Russian army that is being routed in the northeast is one of the most elite units in the Russian army.
The First Guards Tank Army is among the units being forced back and was considered an elite frontline armored force that was intended to go head-to-head with NATO. The unit took heavy casualties in the opening months of the war and never received enough replacements to return to full strength. As a result, the weakened force could not withstand the Ukrainian offensive.
There are reports that some Russian soldiers were in full flight, at times dropping their rifles and disguising themselves as locals. In their rapid retreat, Russian forces have abandoned large amounts of ammunition and other military stores. This means that resupply and mounting a defense is more difficult while the advancing Ukrainians have a simplified supply problem. Ukraine reports capturing 6,000 square kilometers and thousands of Russian prisoners.
Now, to make matters worse for Russia, the Ukrainians are advancing in south near Kherson as well.
ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN GO AT IT: Speaking of wars between former Soviet republics, Azerbaijan and Armenia have started shooting at each other. A widespread war seems unlikely, but this is worth keeping an eye on.
The fighting may be a result of Russia’s weakened position as a protector of Armenia. Vladimir Putin’s failed war seems to be not only resulting in an expanded NATO, but Russia’s former vassal states are flexing their muscles as well.
RUMBLE IN GEORGIA: Put this on your calendar! Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock, the Peach State’s Senate contenders, have scheduled a debate for October 14 at 7pm. Given Walker’s problems with public speaking, this seems like a desperation move and will be must-see political tv.
TWEET OF THE DAY: In today’s tweet of the day, a Ukrainian soldier gets a big hug and a tearful reunion as he liberates his own mother’s village.
"Put this on your calendar! Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock, the Peach State’s Senate contenders, have scheduled a debate for October 14 at 7pm."
Surely I'm not the only one hoping we can have a Racket Watch Party for this. Let me know if you'd like me to set up a Discord server or something like that.
Very newsy, thanks. That video at the end brought me to tears. How wonderful!