1. The current ruling regime seems to be extremely deficient when it comes to having an operational Theory of Mind[1]. They're all inflicted with Main Character Syndrome (MCS)[2], where if you are not them or on their team, you're reduced to a "non-player character"[3] to be either exploited or defeated, the same as NPCs in the video games and movies that have taken on an increased importance in people's lives as they disassociate from their local physical communities, and spend more time in their personal bubbles.
2. Trump is the personification of MCS. While I doubt that he's played (or cheated) as many video games as Musk[4], being born an entitled rich brat - and never growing out of the role - is another easy path to MCS. Given that we are all NPCs to Trump (and his crew) - to @SGMan's point - Trump has no responsibility for getting anyone but his team on board, and we NPCs either are resources he can use to wage that war OR we become the villains to be conquered alongside the Main Bosses of the Iranian Mullahs. The idea that Trump is in the employ of the American nation is completely foreign to him, as opposed to the idea that the American nation is a resource for him to spend to run up his score.
3. Thank you for NOT succumbing to MCS and actually taking into account the Iranian regime's priorities in your coverage of all of this. I know you're opposed to those priorities - I think most of us here are - and not doing so is the diplomatic equivalent of inviting an opponent to manipulate you with small concessions in favor of larger ones that the Main Character refused to understand or consider. (Given all of Trump's performative Christianity these days, you'd think that there would be someone in his circle to let him know that it's the next level that actually matters - this one is merely for sorting the players and determining who gets to move on. The Iranians actually get that.)
4. Pope Leo is winning a lot of fans standing up to Trump. I got home last night and my wife asked me if I wanted to attend the White Sox game where the team will be giving away Pope hats[5]. (I married well.) Now, note that she never makes an effort to go see the Sox (our physical local community encompasses the Cubs' Wrigley Field and surrounding neighborhood), and I was a bit surprised that she brought up the Pope Hat Game before I could.
5. A big "Congratulations!" is due to the Hungarians who ousted Victor Orbán yesterday (and extended J.D. Vance's losing streak). I'm looking forward to thinking of Hungary as the nation that gave us "The Martians"[6], and less a haven for right-wing grifters seeking to avoid being convicted of FARA violations.[7]
The American people aren't on board because Trump/et al didn't bother getting us on board. We are not prepared for the shortages and economic costs - both domestic and globally - nor for the new age of war with FPV drone footage of attacks on soldiers (as seen in Ukraine).
I don't disagree that the only way to avoid a loss is to mire ourselves even deeper in this war. Unfortunately, we have Trump and Hegseth at the helm - a loss seems likely.
Even if Trump tried to make a case to the American people to start this operation, the people would not have been on board. The distaste would simply have begun earlier.
This is where Israel's "jungle rules" got it into trouble.
Given the little bit of neocon in me, there's a case that I could have been sold on for the US and Israel going in and liberating the Iranian people from the Mullahs. However, after watching what Israel did to Gaza, there's no way that I would wish that treatment on the average citizen of Tehran who is just trying to live their lives in tough situations.
Had Israel found a path (if one existed) to fight Hamas in Gaza without turning it into rubble populated by refugees in their own neighborhoods, it would have been able to make a much more compelling case for doing that in Tehran. However, that's NOT what happened, and the rest of the world is rightfully wary of partnering with Israel on any kind of regime change and nation-building.
Do you not think that's in itself a major problem for those that have wanted to go to war with Iran - that they are unable to successfully argue the need and importance of doing so to the people?
Exceptional column Steve, with one bit of irony. I literally laughed out loud at your headline. At least from trump's limited perspective, the word error alongside his name don't belong in the same sentence (let alone, twice).
We all remember trump's infamous remark: "I don't like to have to ask for forgiveness. And I am good. I don't do a lot of things that are bad. I try to do nothing that is bad." Again the laughter from the insanity of the comment paints a graphic picture: trump could become a poster child to amplify the seven deadly sins. Yet he proudly told us all; "i am good."
All that aside, i read EE's free email this morning and it was in a similar perspective as yours; Attacking the Pope was dumb, winning/finishing the war was an absolute. Here's my question for you and it's a hard one: How many body bags is too many?
Boots on the ground means one thing, dead bodies will pile up. Is the number 50,100, 1000 or is the price to "win" at any cost where we are?
There is only one war which must be won “at any cost”: that is an invasion of the U.S. homeland. There is currently a very low / asymptotic to zero probability of that. Therefore any other war must have a cost/benefit analysis attached. How many body bags? I don’t know. But how long will we endure 50% of the world’s economy held hostage by a theocratic fringe regime? I don’t know. I do know regime change is achievable and the likely casualty count is probably in the 100s or low 1000s. Most Americans would not feel that’s worth it.
A couple of thoughts:
1. The current ruling regime seems to be extremely deficient when it comes to having an operational Theory of Mind[1]. They're all inflicted with Main Character Syndrome (MCS)[2], where if you are not them or on their team, you're reduced to a "non-player character"[3] to be either exploited or defeated, the same as NPCs in the video games and movies that have taken on an increased importance in people's lives as they disassociate from their local physical communities, and spend more time in their personal bubbles.
2. Trump is the personification of MCS. While I doubt that he's played (or cheated) as many video games as Musk[4], being born an entitled rich brat - and never growing out of the role - is another easy path to MCS. Given that we are all NPCs to Trump (and his crew) - to @SGMan's point - Trump has no responsibility for getting anyone but his team on board, and we NPCs either are resources he can use to wage that war OR we become the villains to be conquered alongside the Main Bosses of the Iranian Mullahs. The idea that Trump is in the employ of the American nation is completely foreign to him, as opposed to the idea that the American nation is a resource for him to spend to run up his score.
3. Thank you for NOT succumbing to MCS and actually taking into account the Iranian regime's priorities in your coverage of all of this. I know you're opposed to those priorities - I think most of us here are - and not doing so is the diplomatic equivalent of inviting an opponent to manipulate you with small concessions in favor of larger ones that the Main Character refused to understand or consider. (Given all of Trump's performative Christianity these days, you'd think that there would be someone in his circle to let him know that it's the next level that actually matters - this one is merely for sorting the players and determining who gets to move on. The Iranians actually get that.)
4. Pope Leo is winning a lot of fans standing up to Trump. I got home last night and my wife asked me if I wanted to attend the White Sox game where the team will be giving away Pope hats[5]. (I married well.) Now, note that she never makes an effort to go see the Sox (our physical local community encompasses the Cubs' Wrigley Field and surrounding neighborhood), and I was a bit surprised that she brought up the Pope Hat Game before I could.
5. A big "Congratulations!" is due to the Hungarians who ousted Victor Orbán yesterday (and extended J.D. Vance's losing streak). I'm looking forward to thinking of Hungary as the nation that gave us "The Martians"[6], and less a haven for right-wing grifters seeking to avoid being convicted of FARA violations.[7]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_mind
[2] https://aeon.co/essays/why-main-character-syndrome-is-philosophically-dangerous
[3] https://futurism.com/elon-musk-interviewer-npc
[4] https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/rs-gaming/elon-musk-cheating-gaming-diablo-iv-1235234041/
[5] https://www.mlb.com/news/chicago-white-sox-pope-hat-giveaway-to-fans-faq
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Martians_(scientists)
[7] https://english.atlatszo.hu/2024/10/23/hungarian-government-proxy-is-spending-a-fortune-to-influence-public-opinion-in-the-us/
The American people aren't on board because Trump/et al didn't bother getting us on board. We are not prepared for the shortages and economic costs - both domestic and globally - nor for the new age of war with FPV drone footage of attacks on soldiers (as seen in Ukraine).
I don't disagree that the only way to avoid a loss is to mire ourselves even deeper in this war. Unfortunately, we have Trump and Hegseth at the helm - a loss seems likely.
Oh, and 20 days left on the counter.
Even if Trump tried to make a case to the American people to start this operation, the people would not have been on board. The distaste would simply have begun earlier.
This is where Israel's "jungle rules" got it into trouble.
Given the little bit of neocon in me, there's a case that I could have been sold on for the US and Israel going in and liberating the Iranian people from the Mullahs. However, after watching what Israel did to Gaza, there's no way that I would wish that treatment on the average citizen of Tehran who is just trying to live their lives in tough situations.
Had Israel found a path (if one existed) to fight Hamas in Gaza without turning it into rubble populated by refugees in their own neighborhoods, it would have been able to make a much more compelling case for doing that in Tehran. However, that's NOT what happened, and the rest of the world is rightfully wary of partnering with Israel on any kind of regime change and nation-building.
Do you not think that's in itself a major problem for those that have wanted to go to war with Iran - that they are unable to successfully argue the need and importance of doing so to the people?
Exceptional column Steve, with one bit of irony. I literally laughed out loud at your headline. At least from trump's limited perspective, the word error alongside his name don't belong in the same sentence (let alone, twice).
We all remember trump's infamous remark: "I don't like to have to ask for forgiveness. And I am good. I don't do a lot of things that are bad. I try to do nothing that is bad." Again the laughter from the insanity of the comment paints a graphic picture: trump could become a poster child to amplify the seven deadly sins. Yet he proudly told us all; "i am good."
All that aside, i read EE's free email this morning and it was in a similar perspective as yours; Attacking the Pope was dumb, winning/finishing the war was an absolute. Here's my question for you and it's a hard one: How many body bags is too many?
Boots on the ground means one thing, dead bodies will pile up. Is the number 50,100, 1000 or is the price to "win" at any cost where we are?
There is only one war which must be won “at any cost”: that is an invasion of the U.S. homeland. There is currently a very low / asymptotic to zero probability of that. Therefore any other war must have a cost/benefit analysis attached. How many body bags? I don’t know. But how long will we endure 50% of the world’s economy held hostage by a theocratic fringe regime? I don’t know. I do know regime change is achievable and the likely casualty count is probably in the 100s or low 1000s. Most Americans would not feel that’s worth it.
Well, there's the question: how much of the world views the economy as being held hostage by the US rather than Iran?