Uncertainty in a stormy world
Happy Monday for those who have a world to live in
Hassan Nasrallah was 64 when he exited this world. With Nasrallah at the helm, Hezbollah effectively took over Lebanon, which ceased to be an independent nation. His fighters, equipped and trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, maintained a stock of well over 100,000 rockets and long-range missiles able to strike anywhere in Israel. At full capability, Hezbollah could overwhelm Israel’s anti-missile systems such as David’s Sling and Iron Dome, inflicting terrible damage on that small nation’s commercial core, Tel Aviv. But things didn’t go as planned for Nasrallah.
Israel spent decades planning Hezbollah’s demise, along with Nasrallah’s assassination. Since the 1980s, when the IDF occupied southern Lebanon, and lost a war of attrition to Nasrallah, whose organization also bombed a Marine barracks, and blew up an Air Force barracks, killing and wounding hundreds of American servicemen, Israel preferred a slow, careful approach. The IDF, along with the Mossad and Shin Bet, painstakingly identified every Hezbollah leader, down to the individual unit. Israel infiltrated Iran’s command and control, aided by Lebanese and Iranian human assets. The pagers and radios were planted.
After last October 7th—we’re coming up on a year—when Hamas had so thoroughly fooled Israel into a false sense of security and stability, the doomsday clock was already ticking for Nasrallah. The way Israel chose to neutralize Hezbollah was by decapitation. At the start of this latest conflict, Israel warned Lebanon that what it did to Gaza, it was fully prepared to do to Beirut. And now, that has begun. Nasrallah is dead, and the U.S. should be joyful at his death, along with every other leader of that evil organization. The Lebanese people would be joyful, but for the coming storm when the IDF once again invades southern Lebanon.
All this death and destruction must have a purpose. If, like the mythical hydra, Israel’s enemies only multiply when the heads of its existing foes are cut off, then Israel has accomplished nothing.
In Luke 21:20, Jesus said “But when you see Jerusalem surrounded by armies, then know that its desolation has come near.” He was referring most directly to the Romans sacking Jerusalem, which happened about 90 years after. There was much uncertainty then, just like today.
Israel’s military is feeling its oats now. The Houthis have declared war on “the Zionist entity.” They have continually fired Iranian-made intermediate range missiles toward Israel. These have been intercepted. They sent a drone which did get past the air defenses and explode, doing some damage. Now, Israel, one of the few Middle East nations with air refueling capability (IAF version of KC-135 tankers), flew its jets 1,000 miles to attack the Houthis in Yemen. The U.N. refuses to recognize the Houthis as a terrorist organization, because the group also functions (to the degree any evil terror organization can) as the government in Yemen.
It was a small attack, aimed at a port where Iranian weapons were being unloaded, and also a power plant. The strike killed several engineers and a port worker. Now, after years of a Yemeni civil war, with millions displaced, Israel will be blamed for any deaths by the compliant media and the U.N. from this day forward. The Saudis fought the Houthis for 10 years and lost. Israel has no desire to fight any foreign wars. But this strike was a warning against the leaders in Tehran, not to pick a fight with desert rats in Yemen.
The Middle East is squaring off to be a night of cage matches between Iran and Israel. The first matches are winding up, with Israel the victor. The headline match may be coming, or perhaps cooler heads will prevail again.
Storms in North Carolina
Asheville, North Carolina, was under water. Biltmore Village is ravaged, the damage revealed as the floodwaters recede. Dams failed. Homes were destroyed. Cities were cut off (some remain so). Basic services, such as communications, power, and transportation, are spotty or gone.
Like David Thornton, I have lived through hurricanes, and also floods. In 1994, Hurricane Alberto, the first of the season, came in over the Florida panhandle, and stalled over Georgia, dropping immense amounts of rain. The Flint and Ocmulgee rivers blew past their 100-year flood records, into the 1,000-year category. Dams failed. Homes were destroyed. Cities were cut off. I was in the Civil Air Patrol and Amateur Radio Emergency Service in those days. CAP is a volunteer organization, but in emergencies it can serve in various capacities. I volunteered to go (I worked at Robins AFB), and received orders to attach to the Georgia National Guard. Eventually, they sent us to Albany, where some of the worst damage occurred. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.
I pray for the folks in North Carolina. The fact that this is in the news won’t excite people whose homes are underwater, or soon filled with mold and rot. And in a few days, the news will fade. But the people of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee will be dealing with rebuilding for decades. I had a friend in Montezuma, Georgia (one of the worst hit communities) who, in the mid-90s owned a Radio Shack store downtown. I remember seeing a marker on the wall in his store, above my eye level, and almost over my head. He said that was the high water mark. Similar marks were placed around the city. Some are probably there to this day. Floods like this don’t fade from the locals’ memory, even if they do fade from the news.
The Coming Election
People online ask why, if Donald Trump keeps repeating a mantra of really dumb things, and Kamala Harris keeps appearing more mainstream on issues like guns (she said if you break in her house, you’d be shot), the election isn’t a 40-point rout according to polls. There’s a lot of answers for this. One is that Harris isn’t a particularly believable speaker.
Bill Clinton could lie his head off and you’d come away believing it. He’s got that kind of reality distortion zone—like Steve Jobs had. Hillary could tell you the sky is blue and you’d question your own eyes to disagree with her. Harris falls somewhere between the Clintons on the believability scale, but closer to Hillary than Bill. Trump is, as he’s always been, the scorpion looking for a ride across the river. The frogs who have offered their backs don’t want to feel the sting, so they keep swimming.
The election is going to be close. We don’t know how it will turn out, but we do know that the process of knowing will be like natural childbirth: painful.
Here let me share a comment I just added to an earlier post about the GOP and Trump. A reader who wrote they are a poll worker, and a poll manager, commented that the new Georgia election rules requiring a handcount of ballots before a certification merely standardizes the way ballots are counted statewide. This is not true. I replied:
Every precinct and county already does handcount the same way. That's part of the GEC regulations and training materials. The question here is not how handcounts are done. The new rule requires all county election officials to perform a handcount to the totals of all precinct and voting machines to ensure the ballot counts are right BEFORE certifying results to the SOS.
This is currently NOT done and never has been done unless there is a discrepancy in the tapes generated by the ballot scanners vs the card totals (maintained by SOS or manual count) and the voting machine tabulations. If those matched and reconciled, the county election official is REQUIRED to certify the results. The GEC now says they must also perform a handcount at the precinct level, which was only performed if there's a discrepancy. As a poll manager, you should know this, as you've done it.
The handcount is much more likely to INTRODUCE more error and uncertainty into the results than solve it if the other numbers already agree. It requires opening the sealed scanner boxes BEFORE certification, which is against state election law (OCGA 183-1-12-.12). The GEC exceeded its authority and will cause county election officials (who are sworn poll officers) to violate state law. This is what AG Chris Carr has said. Any county that attempts to comply with the GEC rule will have to declare an emergency situation (which is allowed by state law), or face a Writ of Mandamus forcing certification. Declaring an emergency when no actual discrepancy exists is cause for removal.
Georgia law, passed by the legislature and signed by the governor, supersedes GEC rules and pronouncements. The handcounts will either violate the law, or require every county election official to declare an emergency. I hope Attorney General Chris Carr is prepared with 159 Writ of Mandamus filings, or Gov. Brian Kemp has a stack of suspension documents ready to remove election officials who cry wolf.
One thing is likely. The GOP has lawyers ready to challenge these in court. If I have to make a prediction, it’s that Georgia, if it’s close, will not be called for days after the voting is done. That is bad news if you’re looking for certainty.
Certainty
The only certainty Christians have in the world is the Word of God. In Luke 21, Jesus had a conversation with his disciples about the end of the world—or at least the end of their world. Jesus offered no comfort in the world.
Then he said to them, “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be great earthquakes, and in various places famines and pestilences. And there will be terrors and great signs from heaven. But before all this they will lay their hands on you and persecute you, delivering you up to the synagogues and prisons, and you will be brought before kings and governors for my name's sake. This will be your opportunity to bear witness. Settle it therefore in your minds not to meditate beforehand how to answer, for I will give you a mouth and wisdom, which none of your adversaries will be able to withstand or contradict. You will be delivered up even by parents and brothers and relatives and friends, and some of you they will put to death. You will be hated by all for my name's sake. But not a hair of your head will perish. By your endurance you will gain your lives. (Luke 21:10-19)
In all the uncertainties in the world, the one thing that Jesus said was certain is that Christians will be hated for Christ’s sake. Christians who crave the approval of the world, or even other Christians by tickling their ears and promising riches and fame, are not doing the work of the cross. What Jesus said was certain is that if you seek these things, you will perish. If you endure, you will live—even if your earthly life is taken from you.
Hassan Nasrallah has perished. Jesus offered those of us who claim the cross the path to life. That’s the only certainty that matters.
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Interesting commentary on the hand counting. I haven't made much noise about it, but it's been unclear to me WHO was doing the hand counting.
At our local Chicago precinct level (part of a larger ward), there are three numbers I keep a SHARP eye on throughout the election day: The number of applications for ballot (that voters fill out first), the number of processed voters in our e-poll books (where we take the info from the application, and look up whether a voter is eligible to vote at our location), and the number of ballots cast and residing in the sealed ballot box. If those numbers do not line up and you can't account for the discrepancy by factors like your ballot box is short two, due to two voters still filling out their ballot, then you're in for a Bad Day. Something's gone wrong in your process and you better figure it out and have a GOOD answer when an investigator comes along to see what's up. (Investigators will also visit to check those numbers throughout the day.)
At our precinct level, we don't have an explicit requirement to count the ballots as we're packing them up for taking them to the receiving station, but I'll do that for my own peace of mind. (Given early voting and mail-in voting, we're lucky if a third of the eligible voters in the ward show up in-person.) We place the paper ballots (which also include paper print-outs produced by the touchscreen unit) in a sealed bag that all the workers sign before a Republican and Democrat transport them to the local receiving station.
Translated to Chicago elections, it sounds like the new hand-counting requirement would have the folks in our receiving station (if a receiving station translates into a ward, which may or may not be the case) open the sealed bag of ballots we just packed (which is where the conflict with the law comes in) and recounted them to check them against the machine totals. If this is something that had been baked into the election process all along, that doesn't seem like a big deal to me, but the requirement coming so close to the election (likely after a lot of mandatory training has been completed) sounds like a recipe for disaster, as my doppelgänger has indicated.
I doubt that the entire state of Georgia being in a state of election emergency will look all that good to the rest of the nation as well. It'll be interesting to see if there's any meaningful blowback that keeps the #MAGA folks from attempting to do this elsewhere in the future.
Thanks Steve