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Chris J. Karr's avatar

"the betting markets are giving Trump the edge"

Take the betting markets with a larger grain of salt this cycle than they usually get:

"A stark shift toward former President Donald Trump on the political gambling platform Polymarket this month stoked scrutiny about four accounts that have collectively spent over $28 million betting on the Republican nominee to win the 2024 presidential election."

"Polymarket on Thursday confirmed what a number of experts have suspected: All four accounts are controlled by a single trader."

"A company spokesperson in a statement to CNBC described the whale as a French national with 'extensive trading experience and a financial services background.'"

"The statement said the trader’s accounts were funded from a 'well-known centralized crypto exchange,' which other outlets have identified as the U.S.-based exchange Kraken."

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/24/polymarket-trump-french-election-bet.html

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David Thornton's avatar

Interesting. I saw the WSJ reports on the large suspicious bets but I had not seen the specifics about the bettor. There may still be some question about whether the Whale is trying to influence the election or just trying to make a profit, but the former seems likely.

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SGman's avatar

Here's a question: let's say Mystal's theory is correct and the GOP attempts to deny certification of Electors at the state-level. Would you support such a move?

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