What’s next for Iran?

To regime change or not to regime change, that is the question.

Okay, I got that one wrong. I said that “two weeks” for Trump meant “never,” and it implied that he would not attack Iran. Over the weekend, he did exactly that. As they say in finance, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Usually “two weeks” with Trump means it never happens, but this time, it may have been used as part of an intentional strategic deception. The deployment of two B-2 bombers to Guam was apparently also part of the deception since the main part of Operation Midnight Hammer’s strike force was comprised of seven B-2s operating from Whiteman AFB in Missouri. The mission included more than 100 aircraft in all as well as cruise missiles from US Navy submarines.

Photo: B-2 Spirit photographed by Royal Air Force in 2019 (Wikimedia)

The attack raises a lot of questions, including “Is this constitutional” and “what next? The constitutionality is a gray area, but I do think Trump had the authority to launch the attack. I did a deep dive into presidential war powers during Trump’s first term, and the truth is, the Constitution and lower statutes give a lot of authority to presidents as the commander-in-chief. The number of declared wars and authorized uses of force has been a minority in our history of conflicts. That is yet another reason why it is important to elect levelheaded, trustworthy leaders.

The situation is even more gray if we take National Security Advisor Tulsi Gabbard’s recent statement that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003” into account. President Trump obviously disagreed with her assessment, we know this because he said so, but that leads to the question of why he hired her and why she continues to serve in her position.

Being lawful and being smart are not necessarily the same thing, however. It’s very possible that Trump can be on firm legal ground while the decision to strike Iran can be unwise for other reasons. For example, Trump apparently cut both Congress and other allies out of the loop. That may have consequences later.

For example, Congress may get its act together to start reining in executive powers if concerns grow about Trump pushing the boundaries and possibly embroiling the US in a war with his unilateral actions. That’s especially true since there was no imminent threat or time pressure to act.

LOL. I’m sorry. I thought I could type that with a straight face, but the thought of Congress getting its act together was too ludicrous.

Second and probably more likely is the possibility that unilateral action will further damage relations with our allies. While few seem to be opposed to destroying Iran’s nuclear program, new seeds of mistrust may have been sown that will emerge in the future. For now, even the Gulf Arab states are quietly cheering.

And then there is public opinion. After running as a peace candidate and then floating the ideas of forcibly annexing Greenland, Panama, and Canada, Trump is now actively ordering attacks on another country that has not attacked us (at least not recently). Trump missed a golden opportunity to be presidential and unifying by explaining to the country why we needed to intervene against Iran. Instead, Trump acted as he normally does: Unilaterally.

The Iran attacks are more evidence that Trump is more of a CEO than a president. He is not a deal maker or consensus builder. He is someone who gives orders and expects them to be carried out. In the context of a constitutional republic, that’s dangerous and authoritarian behavior.

The other big question is what comes next. The good news is that I don’t think that either the US or Israel wants a prolonged war or a full scale invasion and occupation of Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegspeth has already said that the US is open to further negotiations.

[Or maybe not. As I write this, Trump is floating the idea of regime change. As is typically the case, Trump is posting things to social media that are out of step with what the rest of his Administration is saying, and no one has any idea what he’s talking about.]

The bad news is that the enemy also gets a vote, and the Iranian regime won’t forget or forgive what the US and Israel have done together on their home soil. Their humiliation will demand retribution, and they have a long memory.

Iran’s missiles and drones have been mostly ineffective as weapons of retaliation so far, but they will keep trying. If Iran has active terror cells in the US, we will probably find out soon. Honestly, I think if they did, we would probably have seen them act already.

Aside from direct attacks and terrorism, closing the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf choke point for a lot of the world’s oil shipments, is a tempting strategy for Iran. Unarmed oil tankers are a more vulnerable target than the Israeli or US military. In the past, Iran has threatened shipping with missiles, aircraft, and speedboats, but attacking tankers would bring a swift and strong response from the US and probably other nations as well.

The air campaign will probably continue for a few more weeks. We may see more US involvement if other hardened targets are identified or if follow-up strikes are needed, but I don’t anticipate a large expansion to the war. This is not about forcing regime change, although weakening the regime may bring about organic regime change by disaffected Iranian citizens.

I expect Israel to continue bombing until they either run out of bombs or targets. Now that Pandora’s box has been opened without international outcry, they will make the most of it and do their utmost to set Iran back as far as possible, if not totally topple the Islamist regime. Ukraine will likely benefit from the destruction of Iran’s drone and missile industries as well, since Iran is a major arms supplier to the Russians, which tells you a lot about the sorry state of Russia.

I believe that it was necessary to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program, and I hope that has been accomplished. It is too early to tell whether the strikes were successful, but early indications are questionable. Vice President Vance indicated that Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium were not destroyed, which may mean that further attacks are necessary.

I also think Trump could have used the incident to become a more effective president but missed the opportunity. I would not be surprised if his thinking didn’t include the need for strong action to disprove the TACO (Trump always chickens out) charge.

The best result would be if Iran’s nuclear program was reset to square one, but any significant setback would be welcomed. Most of the world is in agreement that Iran cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons. Kicking the can down the road is better than nothing.

Most of the world may not include Russia. A senior Russian official hinted that Russia may help Iran rebuild its nuclear program or even supply them with a nuclear weapon, but Russia, as noted earlier, can’t even supply its own military. [Putin’s Russia built Iran’s nuclear plants and air defenses.]

There is at least one clear winner from the episode. The fact that we did not read about the upcoming strikes on social media proves that Pete Hegspeth can keep a secret. Hopefully, the DOD “Signal Corps” has learned that operational security is at least as important as being able to do pushups.

Thank you for your attention in this matter.

A WORD ABOUT PROPHECY Every time the US gets involved in the Middle East, there is a lot of speculation about prophecy. I came of age as the “Left Behind” series was being released, so I get the fascination with prophecy, but I have two points to make about it.

First, the US is not in end-time prophecy. That’s simple and straightforward.

Second, the one thing I’m fairly certain about when it comes to end-time prophecies is that they will be fulfilled but not necessarily in the way we expect. As an example, Jesus fulfilled the Bible’s messianic prophecies, but he wasn’t what the ancient Israelites expected. I think people who are dogmatic about interpretation of prophecy will be surprised.

Prophecy is interesting and it’s fun to speculate, but our focus should be fulfilling Christ’s commandments to tell the world of his love rather than speculating on whether today’s headlines are ripped from the pages of the Bible or prepping for the Tribulation.

Jesus wins. It’s all going to work out.

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