Who gets the last word before WW3?

World wars don't just break out, they simmer and boil.

Here’s something I wasn’t sure of until yesterday. President Donald Trump doesn’t really want World War 3. But here’s something I’ve grown more sure of over the years: Whoever speaks peace never gets the last word. The cease fire Trump proclaimed just hours ago is likely to shatter, as Iran wanted one last missile volley. Not to let Iran have the last word, Israel pledged retaliation. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t.

Image: Grok

The thing about big wars is they don’t just break out. They simmer and boil, then cool off, revert into “phoney wars” and displays of power, then seemingly all at once, they burst out of control. If you study wars, you see the pattern, and what’s going on right now will be instantly recognizable.

The American Civil War, the bloodiest we’ve ever fought (and on our own soil!), began with a six month period of nothing much happening. Politically, the country had split, but the Confederates needed more states to join their cause, and Jefferson Davis, who was a U.S. Senator from Mississippi before he resigned to lead the rebellion, believed an act of war would rally them. His own secretary of state, Robert Tombs, called an attack on Fort Sumter “suicide, murder,” and would result in the South getting wiped out. “It is unnecessary; it puts us in the wrong; it is fatal,” Tombs said, as the rebel cabinet approved the attack.

After Fort Sumter in April, nothing much happened. President Lincoln ordered the navy to blockade southern ports. The U.S. Army seized Alexandria and the Lee estate, which is now Arlington National Cemetery, because from those heights the rebels could have shelled the Capitol and all of Washington, D.C. Over the next nine months, we slid into war one skirmish and engagement at a time. The big battles like Bull Run and Shiloh would not begin for months, or a year.

The Great European War, World War 1, simmered for years as the Great Powers and their imperial aspirations played out in politics, the generals planned logistics, timetables were drawn up, weapons were built, and troops were trained. The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was merely one of a hundred triggers that would have ignited that awful war.

World War 2 officially began in September 1939. But for eight months, until May 1940, nothing, fighting-wise, really happened. It’s called the “Phoney War” and during that time, Germany’s Nazi regime planned its Blitzkrieg. The other European powers didn’t want to escalate what was clearly headed for conflict. France believed it could defend itself.

The world, today, is poised on the brink of World War 3, which, surprisingly to those of us who grew up on threats of nuclear holocaust and “Red Dawn,” will likely be fought in a completely different genre. We also won’t be seeing triumphant columns of U.S. armor riding through the streets of Tehran like we did in Baghdad. The coming war will arrive more subtly, but could be more damaging than any we’ve seen, leaving out nuclear.

We are just one of a hundred triggers away from it. Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, which has been saber-rattled by a powerless parliament in Tehran. This would cause a worldwide oil and gas crisis, and certainly get the United States Navy involved. That could lead to one or more of our ships being damaged and sailors killed. Tankers are already avoiding the narrow passage through the gulf, even turning around.

Israel could decide to have the last word in the latest round of hostilities, responding to Iran’s missile barrage. Iran conveniently notified the U.S. and Qatar of its intentions and the nature of its attack on an American base, and all its missiles were intercepted. No Americans were injured, and there were no deaths. It was a token attack because Iran does not want to escalate against the U.S. on other gulf nations’ soil. That is, unless it doesn’t get the last word, or that last volley.

Russia wants to continue to receive drones and other munitions made in Iran, and likely has done some backroom dealing with all the parties. With Trump now openly talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a more or less open door at the Kremlin for both Israeli and Iranian leaders, Russia has many carrots, but not a lot of big sticks as its fully engaged in Ukraine. About Ukraine: Russian continues to pummel Kyiv and other cities. According to the Institute for the Study of War, overnight Sunday, Ukrainian Air Force sources reported 352 drones, including up to 160 Shahed (Iranian) drones, 11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 5 Iskander-K cruise missiles, struck Ukraine. Many were intercepted and downed or suppressed by Ukrainian defensive systems.

Having the world, and the United States, distracted in the Middle East helps Russia’s effort to gobble up Ukraine a square kilometer at a time, while punishing its civilians in atrocious acts of wanton violence.

There’s also the matter of Iran’s nuclear material. Contrary to the narrative that Trump pulled off some huge misdirection or surprise attack on Iran, nothing could be further from the truth. It would not have mattered whether Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth had broadcast the B-2 routes on Snapchat; the Iranians knew it was coming, and they knew exactly where we’d hit. It’s not like we had not prefaced our attacks with months of threats and aircraft moves. It was no secret that dozens of tankers flew out of U.S. bases headed overseas. The only thing Iran didn’t know was the exact time the bombs would fall. It seems that the Iranians did the sensible thing and moved their highest enriched U-235 out of Fordo.

It’s possible, though improbable, that Iran has some facility hidden in the mountains or somewhere in its large country where the bomb packaging and delivery materials are waiting for the “physics package” to arrive. It’s possible, any day, that seismographs around the world might detect an underground nuclear test in Iran, which would be a watershed moment and a turn in the war. There’s no shortage of nations allied with Iran who have the materials and technology right now.

This would also be an ideal time for China to flex in the Taiwan Strait, or expand its hegemony over the South China Sea, even the Sea of Japan. Perhaps the opportunists in Beijing might test how far they can stretch U.S. military assets, or even—God forbid—make a move on Taiwan.

While the world is looking away, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un might do more than just put on a missile show. I’m not saying a hundred thousand screaming North Koreans will plunge over the border, with a 10,000 gun round of chemical warheads launched 50 miles into the south, in a bid to decapitate Seoul. But that’s one option that’s never off the table in Pyongyang.

Trump thinks he can manage this war with his words. The New York Times reported that he made “expletive-laced remarks” to reporters about Israel, warning them not to “drop those bombs,” and demanding Israel “bring your pilots home now.” Israel doesn’t have to listen to Trump, because he isn’t going to send B-2 bombers over Tel Aviv. But Trump could tell Israel it’s on its own, intelligence-wise, on missile-defense in and in all the other ways the U.S. military and intelligence operations closely cooperate with their Israeli counterparts. He could turn his back on Jerusalem.

I think the political fallout from doing that would be unacceptable for a person so hooked on being loved as Trump. But then again, I don’t know what he’ll do.

That’s the real problem with sliding into a World War. Once you have so many triggers out there, someone is going to pull one. Nobody has control over everyone and everything. Trump’s confidence in his own ability to stop the world from plunging off that cliff into war might be his own undoing. America can’t fight the whole world’s battles, and though impressive, our advanced military isn’t capable of backing the president’s words with a big stick every time he promises peace.

Israel wants the last word in its war with Iran. Iran wants the last word also. Trump thought he could have the last word and keep both sides from fighting. None of them is right. Though I agree that bombing Iran might have been the only way to set back Iran’s clock on the inevitability of a nuclear weapon, it might not be enough. And the U.S. attacked a sovereign nation, in an act of war, without direct provocation. We invited war, and Iran backed down, preferring to simply have the last word.

I don’t think this is the end of that war, or of the other wars simmering and boiling. In trying to shout “peace!” while wielding a big stick, Trump may well have turned up the heat to the point where we are heading into World War 3. It’s just a matter of who will get the last word before the bombs drop, drones fly, cyberattacks hit, mines explode, missiles fly, and terrorist cells rampage.

Events have a way of playing themselves out, and nobody can know everything. The chaos factor is strong, and there are too many triggers out there. If there’s a way to avoid a larger war, some rogue element could easily spoil it.

It’s not all doom. Take heart. I agree with David Thornton. While the nations rage, God laughs in the heavens. His plan will not be thwarted. God has already spoken the last word. But we do have to live in this world, so get ready for what’s coming.

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