Why a Trump win won't kill the GOP

Performative self-interest goes a long way in politics

Sep 26, 2024

I bet Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin are envious of a man who stood on stage and took a rifle bullet graze to the ear—just close enough to bring a vision of eternity, yet a scratch nonetheless. Certainly, Donald Trump is most skilled at losing, but he’s also arguably one of the world’s experts at surviving. Trump manages to survive politically without the real-world brutality Putin employs. So let me say this clearly: Trump is weak.

Far from making America great, he has failed to make the Republican Party great. The GOP is weak, and those who would make it strong have taken one of two available positions: leaving, or tucking in for the long game. There’s a third option, staying on deck, but that’s reserved for elder statesmen like Sens. Mitt Romney and Mitch McConnell, who are immune to Trump’s reality distortion field.

The others who have remained in Trump’s close orbit are what’s known in highly technical terms as “nutsos,” or worse: criminals. I don’t care about these people. The moment that Trump is no longer useful to them (because they are remora who exist off the fortunes of others, as they seek to consume leftover prey), they will fade to the next MyPillow scam, or take over the “Trump coin” franchise while there are still elderly people watching infomercials at 3:00 a.m. Trump finds them useful, in the way pro wrestlers find C-show plants useful, in his quest for cheap heat (I’m delving into wrestling-speak lately, and you can blame Jonathan V. Last).

Now if you have not read David Thornton’s “Why a Trump loss is best for conservatives,” go ahead and read it now. We are both in agreement about a great many things. I will stipulate Trump’s weakness, in economics, foreign policy, and keeping the GOP a going concern. Trump cares not for these things, because what he’s selling is more ephemeral, and many times, poisonous. Yet, somehow, in all the division, cruelty and political wars, Trump managed to not sink the United States. In fact, other than COVID-19, which nobody can blame him for, the four years with Trump in office wasn’t so bad, when placed in perspective.

I, along with around half the country, would take the years 2017-2019 over 2021-2024. Things cost less, mortgages were cheap, jobs were plentiful for those who wanted them, and if you didn’t pay attention to Washington, D.C., things weren’t that crazy. I can’t blame Trump for George Floyd’s murder, or for any of the events that moved the Black Lives Matter cause to the top of progressive priorities. I blame the Democrat-aligned media just as much as Trump’s mouth for perpetuating context-free versions of Trump calling Charlottesville tiki-torch marchers “fine people.” That libel lives on.

I know I’m a broken record on this, but from the day Trump was inaugurated, the Washington Post spent all its energy in a quest to impeach him. Trump, a weak man, took every baited hook and swallowed it. He participated fully in his own impeachment, as the cause agent. Trump’s biggest mistakes in office were trying to appoint “central casting” people to jobs he should have spent time boning up on, to appoint people he might work with. Instead, he ended up with a fractured and, in many cases, counterproductive, staff. It doesn’t help that Trump literally can’t do the job of POTUS as people expect it to be done: the president hard at work. There’s no law that requires the president to, you know, work. Look at Joe Biden, right now, for example.

In any case, Trump, in a second term, will do something he rarely exhibits as a character element: he will learn. Or at least, adapt. Nobody expects Trump to work in a second term. And nobody expects him to appoint people to any position who would challenge him in the smallest way. But there remain people in the GOP who believe that the party has a future, and that the Trump years have an expiration date.

It’s the A-list Republicans who were once against Trump—some outwardly opposing him, and others merely not cooperative—who are now neatly enfolded in the GOP mantra of “supporting the candidate” who interest me most. For every Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, there’s a Nikki Haley and a Chris Sununu.

But that brings me to talking about the election itself. David Thornton says it would be better for conservatives if Trump lost. I agree. Except there’s a condition I add: it would be better for conservatives if Trump lost in a landslide, by a large margin, rejected by literally the entire country. That is not going to happen. The election is close, and is going to remain very close.

Erick Erickson had it nailed on the last days of the race. Kamala Harris and the Democrats have organization on their side. They have door-knockers, good message discipline, and a united party backing them. Trump has none of that, despite the fact that he could have had it if he wanted. The GOP is opting for a skeleton ground game, targeting only those whose vote is up in the air (if they can be identified)—low propensity voters. What Trump does have on his side is events, from the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, to Ukraine (which is facing a hard decision on how to end a war that could be endless), to the border, to the influx of illegal immigrants and the current administration’s policy of lionizing illegals and simultaneously memory-holing bad policies.

Even low-information voters aren’t stupid. Democrats do have a tendency to treat voters who don’t align with their priorities as dumb hicks and racists. Though many Republicans (who are okay with political suicide) have come out for Kamala Harris, these endorsements do little to move the needle in a way that will make the election decisive for Harris.

Come November, the election is going to be decided by the thinnest of margins. If Trump loses, there will be a long, drawn out process of lawsuits, delays (see the Georgia Election Board’s illegal hand count instruction), and lies from both sides flying thicker than a swarm of locusts. The government will act quickly to tamp down any violence; the Harris team will quickly take over the White House, even while Biden still technically occupies it.

If Trump wins, watch the Democrats call for faithless electors, hit every state with voter suppression lawsuits, then when that fails, turn to organized violence. But the media won’t call it insurrection. The election will not be a blowout, and the losers will not give up, and it’s likely they won’t concede at all.

The best option for conservatives is for the election to be a blowout—either way. But that’s not going to happen. The next best option might be for Trump to win. This will elevate the status of many of the Republicans who once opposed him (including his vice president) and now back him. One good thing about a Trump win is that J.D. Vance won’t be heard from for four years. Then again, a bad thing is that Vance will probably run in 2028—but that will happen regardless of whether Trump wins or loses in November.

In a second Trump term, even if most of the things that David says will happen, do happen, I don’t think it will destroy the nation. I also don’t agree that the GOP will be completely in decline. There’s a reason people like Gov. Brian Kemp and Gov. Chris Sununu (both of whom are serving their last terms) stuck around. Someone’s got to be there to deal with bad candidates like Mark Robinson. Whether Democrats or Republicans win, the filibuster is likely going to be nuked (Harris recently said she’s in favor of nuking it).

The GOP will benefit more from having Trump in the White House—where he is still constrained, regardless of those who say he will turn into Mao or Putin—than Trump losing by a hair and spending the next year completing the destruction of the GOP by siphoning its cash and leading its voters off a cliff. Remember, even if Trump loses, he will still have a voice.

I think the long-game players in the GOP, hate them if you must, are seeing things differently than those who committed political suicide and side with Harris. That, in my view, is a more positive vision for the Republican Party than the ones who say it’s completely dead. Of course, those Republicans could be completely delusional—the GOP might be in the grave already. But the facts don’t tell us the future yet.

There will be a day when the GOP wakes up and finds itself free of Trump. The question is whether the GOP will live to see it. Trump has a chance to win, despite him trying very hard to lose. If he does, let’s try to keep our heads, and bless our MAGA neighbors who put him in office. And let’s welcome the Republicans who have played the long game, because they will be the ones we need if conservatives are to have any voice at all.

MISCELLANY. Israel continues its ramp-up to a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. One of the most unlikely, but in my mind, best sources of information about Israel and its war is (have an open mind!) TBN Israel on Youtube. Yes, Trinity Broadcasting. But this isn’t preaching. The “Boots on the Ground” report is some of the best, most accurate, and newsworthy reporting coming out of Israel. I pray for their reporter, Yair Pinto, daily. I highly recommend watching.

ERIC ADAMS is under fire. The mayor of New York City is under federal indictment, likely for some kind of illegal campaign financing or foreign influence. This reminds me of the corrupt administration of former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed. I don’t live in New York, but I think Mayor Adams is a decent mayor. Too bad he can’t do politics.

HURRICANE HELENE is bearing down on north Florida and Georgia. Currently, the forecast has the eye passing close to my house. I am not in favor of this development. The storm is currently nearing Category 2 strength, and could hit Cat 5—catastrophic. They’ve already canceled my kids school tomorrow, along with all football games, band practice and the like. My plan is if the power runs out, to run my fridge and toaster oven off the Kia EV6 battery.

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