"In conclusion, yes, we should worry. It’s early, but short of Trump behind bars in the next 12 months, or Biden’s elevation to hero status, there’s little on the horizon that will significantly alter the election dynamic in 2024. I suppose if Democrats thunder a blue wave this November, things could change, but that’s really not supported by polling. At best, it’s divided, and some Trumpist GOP candidates could lose, but many others can win. The more that win in November, the more political power Trump gains."
I think the biggest determinant for 2024 (short of one of the two candidates kicking the bucket - not unlikely at these ages) will be the GOP's midterm performance in a few months. Structurally, the GOP should rout the Democrats in November, and expectations are high. The key number I keep wondering about is how many of Trump's chosen candidates (e.g. Vance, Walker, Masters) have to win for him to hold or expand his power over the GOP and whether he'll hit that number in a few months. He already cost the GOP control of the Senate once with his BS in 2020 and the GA special elections - will the party be patient enough for him to do that again?
One additional factor ID'ed by Tim Miller over at The Bulwark this morning regarding the GOP fundraising shortfalls this cycle[1]:
"The real answer to the question: 'Where did all the GOP campaign money go?'"
"It’s in the ball room with Colonel Mango and the classified documents."
"Trump’s SAVE America PAC raised over $103 million between the insurrection to July of this year. Nine figures! His MAGA PAC has piled on an additional $16 milly. And those numbers were reported before the August raid of Mar-a-Lago that Trump’s team claims resulted in an additional $1 million per day in donations."
"Put together, the former president’s political action committees have sucked up somewhere in the neighborhood of $125 million of Republican donor money by now."
"So it sure doesn’t seem like Trump is having problems with email spam filters, or Facebook advertising policies, or his hobbit army pinching pennies because of 'The Biden Economy.'"
"What has Trump done with all that scratch? Not much to help anyone besides himself, of course. He hasn’t even spent 10 percent of the receipts supporting GOP candidates on the ballot this year. In fact he’s spent more than twice as much on legal expenses than he’s put down on candidate contributions."
"And despite his substantial legal bills (which seem to be compounding) the Trump PACs’ cash-on-hand more than makes up the gap in resources between the two parties. He could get Republican candidates to par with a few simple cash transfers."
The question here is whether the GOP will recognize that it has a parasite problem and deal with it, or let the political tapeworm consume it from within.
The first question is already answered. The GOP is a zombie party and Trump already has the money. Save America is a leadership PAC. That means it’s Trump’s personal slush fund. He can keep the $103 million. Or he can “loan” it to other campaigns (just not his) in exchange for “swaps” back to his presidential campaign fund. It’s technically legal but really shady, which means a lot of politicians use it. Trump will take the donor swap to unheard of proportions, turning his PAC into a fountain of usury, endorsements for sale, and corruption. And the GOP will never raise another honest dollar again. The parasite is now the organism and has been since September 2016.
Is it pure genius or simply evil incarnate? I'm always intrigued by the question when writers try and explain/rationalize trump. He might just be the greatest showman on earth; even more certain he has perpetrated the greatest and longest running con in modern history. No one has done it better.
If you watch long enough, you come to understand, when you have no filters, no issues with right or wrong, no sense of morality, everything becomes attainable. Most people aren't built that way. After a while, it's not the money, it's the love of the rube buying into the bullshit.
Ultimately all of us who believe in following the rules, playing by the book or believing in those scales of justice have no choice but to try and do the right thing. Taking those documents was illegal. The choices were ignore it or go get them. Kudos to those who believe in the rule of law.
Once they knew he had them and once they knew his lawyers claimed they had sent them all back (which they knew was a load of crap), they did the right thing. Trump being trump looked at the cash windfall and did what he always does, Play the con and make millions.
You tell me Steve, is there ever a point where his behavior is too much? We know there are no norms, no integrity, no sense of honor. Should they have simply turned a blind eye? It's why every morning i eagerly await opening and reading the Bulwark. Why every morning The Racket News is after the Bulwark and why EE's newsletter is flushed without the barest of glances.
Let’s elevate about 20 miles up. Figuring strategy vs tactics, and let’s not confuse tactics with judgment. We can agree that Trump’s past behavior was abominable and deserves justice. Unless his immediate future behavior re: documents is a clear and present danger to the nation, there is time to decide how best to proceed. So far, I don’t see the government making the case for the necessity of immediate action. Strategically, they could have left Trump and the documents alone until his political influence waned (it was waning) and then, after the Atlanta case was indicted, go after the documents or use it as a backstop to the state case. But the feds had to go first and mess it all up. Poor strategy. Reminds me of a scene in the Robert Duvall/Sean Penn movie “Colors” where Duvall’s character tells Penn’s the story about the 2 bulls and the cows. Don’t be in such a rush.
It's an argument, and at some point reality has to set in. We've let him skate for so long and with little or no push back, it appears as if the craziness is the new normal. It's not, nor it ever should be. Did you watch the video clip of Senator Graham? Are we now suggesting the threats of violence in the street dictate what is legal, or not? God help us.
What happened to seemingly normal people? Politician's who used to be conservative and stood for all the things the party was founded under. It's one thing for trump to be getting rich off his criminal behavior; it's wholly another when politician's sell their soul to the devil. Yes, i said devil...he's that freaking evil.
I do not believe Trump will ever win another presidential election. He would fall two or three million votes short of the worst possible candidates - Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Too many people want free stuff, a socialist economy, open borders, minimal military and the new democrat world order. Evidently none of that matters to Trump haters. It's disappointing to hear that polls indicate Governor DeSantis would not fare well. He should be able to attract enough Republican voters to run a close race. The only other hope is that one of the perennial Republican losers could pull in enough democrats and independents who are fed up with the incompetence of the Harris / Biden fiasco.
Trump owns the GOP, so at this point in time it is Trump or bust. He will either be the nominee or choose the nominee. The 2024 presidential election is shaping to be grim for a conservative like myself, that will not vote Trump. We'll see what happens concerning any Trump anointed nominee. Intuition tells me that what it would take to obtain a Trump blessing to run, would make me unlikely to support. Also difficult to imagine Trump not wanting to run himself.
There's a lot of truth in what you say but there is no reason another conservative candidate can't appeal to Republican voters without turning off principled citizens like yourself. There is nothing wrong with fighting back the way Trump and De Santis do.
When I mentioned Republican losers, I was speaking of candidates who cannot or will not appeal to the Republican base. I would vote for most of them even if someone like John Kasich would make me gag while doing it. There is no reason for them to deliberately antagonize the base. A little tact (or evasion or lying like a democrat) would go a long way. I once thought someone such as Mitch Daniel would be ideal, but he might be doing better as a pretty good conservative in the field of higher education. We certainly need more of them.
The base wants to be lied to and coddled, and the desire for "someone that fights back" leads to taking positions that principled conservatives oppose. DeSantis is no better in this regard.
Ah yes: it's so much better to have no principles, and to rely solely on hating your political opponents, rather than have to have and sell ideas to the public.
That's the problem with the anti-anti-Trumpists: they aren't willing to stand up for the principles of liberal democracy and attack those that care about those principles - even if it means losing an election or policy preference.
Thanks for admitting you want to be lied to though.
Or, alternatively, actually having principles I am willing fight for. As opposed to swaying in the wind depending on the media and the polling. No one has yet offered any convincing argument as to how the Biden administration is as good as the Trump administration. And I'm talking about results - not the political games. The current state of the nation ample proof that we are governed by incompetents.
"In conclusion, yes, we should worry. It’s early, but short of Trump behind bars in the next 12 months, or Biden’s elevation to hero status, there’s little on the horizon that will significantly alter the election dynamic in 2024. I suppose if Democrats thunder a blue wave this November, things could change, but that’s really not supported by polling. At best, it’s divided, and some Trumpist GOP candidates could lose, but many others can win. The more that win in November, the more political power Trump gains."
I think the biggest determinant for 2024 (short of one of the two candidates kicking the bucket - not unlikely at these ages) will be the GOP's midterm performance in a few months. Structurally, the GOP should rout the Democrats in November, and expectations are high. The key number I keep wondering about is how many of Trump's chosen candidates (e.g. Vance, Walker, Masters) have to win for him to hold or expand his power over the GOP and whether he'll hit that number in a few months. He already cost the GOP control of the Senate once with his BS in 2020 and the GA special elections - will the party be patient enough for him to do that again?
One additional factor ID'ed by Tim Miller over at The Bulwark this morning regarding the GOP fundraising shortfalls this cycle[1]:
"The real answer to the question: 'Where did all the GOP campaign money go?'"
"It’s in the ball room with Colonel Mango and the classified documents."
"Trump’s SAVE America PAC raised over $103 million between the insurrection to July of this year. Nine figures! His MAGA PAC has piled on an additional $16 milly. And those numbers were reported before the August raid of Mar-a-Lago that Trump’s team claims resulted in an additional $1 million per day in donations."
"Put together, the former president’s political action committees have sucked up somewhere in the neighborhood of $125 million of Republican donor money by now."
"So it sure doesn’t seem like Trump is having problems with email spam filters, or Facebook advertising policies, or his hobbit army pinching pennies because of 'The Biden Economy.'"
"What has Trump done with all that scratch? Not much to help anyone besides himself, of course. He hasn’t even spent 10 percent of the receipts supporting GOP candidates on the ballot this year. In fact he’s spent more than twice as much on legal expenses than he’s put down on candidate contributions."
"And despite his substantial legal bills (which seem to be compounding) the Trump PACs’ cash-on-hand more than makes up the gap in resources between the two parties. He could get Republican candidates to par with a few simple cash transfers."
The question here is whether the GOP will recognize that it has a parasite problem and deal with it, or let the political tapeworm consume it from within.
[1] https://morningshots.thebulwark.com/p/the-mystery-of-the-missing-republican
The first question is already answered. The GOP is a zombie party and Trump already has the money. Save America is a leadership PAC. That means it’s Trump’s personal slush fund. He can keep the $103 million. Or he can “loan” it to other campaigns (just not his) in exchange for “swaps” back to his presidential campaign fund. It’s technically legal but really shady, which means a lot of politicians use it. Trump will take the donor swap to unheard of proportions, turning his PAC into a fountain of usury, endorsements for sale, and corruption. And the GOP will never raise another honest dollar again. The parasite is now the organism and has been since September 2016.
Is it pure genius or simply evil incarnate? I'm always intrigued by the question when writers try and explain/rationalize trump. He might just be the greatest showman on earth; even more certain he has perpetrated the greatest and longest running con in modern history. No one has done it better.
If you watch long enough, you come to understand, when you have no filters, no issues with right or wrong, no sense of morality, everything becomes attainable. Most people aren't built that way. After a while, it's not the money, it's the love of the rube buying into the bullshit.
Ultimately all of us who believe in following the rules, playing by the book or believing in those scales of justice have no choice but to try and do the right thing. Taking those documents was illegal. The choices were ignore it or go get them. Kudos to those who believe in the rule of law.
Once they knew he had them and once they knew his lawyers claimed they had sent them all back (which they knew was a load of crap), they did the right thing. Trump being trump looked at the cash windfall and did what he always does, Play the con and make millions.
You tell me Steve, is there ever a point where his behavior is too much? We know there are no norms, no integrity, no sense of honor. Should they have simply turned a blind eye? It's why every morning i eagerly await opening and reading the Bulwark. Why every morning The Racket News is after the Bulwark and why EE's newsletter is flushed without the barest of glances.
Kind of says it all doesn't it?
Let’s elevate about 20 miles up. Figuring strategy vs tactics, and let’s not confuse tactics with judgment. We can agree that Trump’s past behavior was abominable and deserves justice. Unless his immediate future behavior re: documents is a clear and present danger to the nation, there is time to decide how best to proceed. So far, I don’t see the government making the case for the necessity of immediate action. Strategically, they could have left Trump and the documents alone until his political influence waned (it was waning) and then, after the Atlanta case was indicted, go after the documents or use it as a backstop to the state case. But the feds had to go first and mess it all up. Poor strategy. Reminds me of a scene in the Robert Duvall/Sean Penn movie “Colors” where Duvall’s character tells Penn’s the story about the 2 bulls and the cows. Don’t be in such a rush.
It's an argument, and at some point reality has to set in. We've let him skate for so long and with little or no push back, it appears as if the craziness is the new normal. It's not, nor it ever should be. Did you watch the video clip of Senator Graham? Are we now suggesting the threats of violence in the street dictate what is legal, or not? God help us.
What happened to seemingly normal people? Politician's who used to be conservative and stood for all the things the party was founded under. It's one thing for trump to be getting rich off his criminal behavior; it's wholly another when politician's sell their soul to the devil. Yes, i said devil...he's that freaking evil.
I do not believe Trump will ever win another presidential election. He would fall two or three million votes short of the worst possible candidates - Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Too many people want free stuff, a socialist economy, open borders, minimal military and the new democrat world order. Evidently none of that matters to Trump haters. It's disappointing to hear that polls indicate Governor DeSantis would not fare well. He should be able to attract enough Republican voters to run a close race. The only other hope is that one of the perennial Republican losers could pull in enough democrats and independents who are fed up with the incompetence of the Harris / Biden fiasco.
Trump owns the GOP, so at this point in time it is Trump or bust. He will either be the nominee or choose the nominee. The 2024 presidential election is shaping to be grim for a conservative like myself, that will not vote Trump. We'll see what happens concerning any Trump anointed nominee. Intuition tells me that what it would take to obtain a Trump blessing to run, would make me unlikely to support. Also difficult to imagine Trump not wanting to run himself.
There's a lot of truth in what you say but there is no reason another conservative candidate can't appeal to Republican voters without turning off principled citizens like yourself. There is nothing wrong with fighting back the way Trump and De Santis do.
When I mentioned Republican losers, I was speaking of candidates who cannot or will not appeal to the Republican base. I would vote for most of them even if someone like John Kasich would make me gag while doing it. There is no reason for them to deliberately antagonize the base. A little tact (or evasion or lying like a democrat) would go a long way. I once thought someone such as Mitch Daniel would be ideal, but he might be doing better as a pretty good conservative in the field of higher education. We certainly need more of them.
The base wants to be lied to and coddled, and the desire for "someone that fights back" leads to taking positions that principled conservatives oppose. DeSantis is no better in this regard.
Whatever. Politics is mostly about lying. Both sides. What democrat doesn't lie? What Republican doesn't? Name one.
Ah yes: it's so much better to have no principles, and to rely solely on hating your political opponents, rather than have to have and sell ideas to the public.
That's the problem with the anti-anti-Trumpists: they aren't willing to stand up for the principles of liberal democracy and attack those that care about those principles - even if it means losing an election or policy preference.
Thanks for admitting you want to be lied to though.
Or, alternatively, actually having principles I am willing fight for. As opposed to swaying in the wind depending on the media and the polling. No one has yet offered any convincing argument as to how the Biden administration is as good as the Trump administration. And I'm talking about results - not the political games. The current state of the nation ample proof that we are governed by incompetents.
Perhaps, as this thread argues/hopes, the dropping of pretense and outright threats of violence will dispel any notion of a "good" Trump: https://twitter.com/juliettekayyem/status/1564257825886539778?s=20&t=IEU94RxHSVWyLo2ZZLxr6Q