A sticky situation

Don't get your hopes up for regime change.

In the pantheon of Southern mythology, there is a collection of stories purportedly from Uncle Remus. The stories are not politically correct today because they are set in the antebellum era and include a lot of racial stereotypes, but at one time, they were popular enough to inspire a Disney movie (not shockingly not available on Disney+). I enjoyed the stories when I was little (even though I don’t endorse the racist tropes), and one that stuck with me was the story of the tar baby.

As with many Uncle Remus stories, Brer Rabbit was the protagonist of the tar baby saga. Much like the roadrunner and coyote cartoons, Brer Rabbit was constantly having to outwit Brer Fox, who always wanted to have him over for dinner.

Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drones were used for the first time. These drones cost $35,000 each.(US Central Command/Wikimedia)

In the tar baby tale, Brer Fox sets a trap for Brer Rabbit in the form of a lump of tar shaped as one of the forest creatures. Brer Fox goads Brer Rabbit into hitting the tar baby, and when he does, his arm gets stuck. The more he struggles to free himself, the more stuck he gets until all his arms and legs are immobile.

What does the tar baby have to do with a political blog, you may wonder. My point here is that it is often much easier to get into a situation than to get out of it.

The first few days of Iran War II (Electric Boogaloo) have gone extremely well for the Coalition of Two. Iran’s leadership has been decimated, and over 1,000 targets have been struck. The cost to the US is three dead and five seriously wounded. At least nine people have been killed in Israel, and casualties elsewhere are unknown.

That sound you hear in the background is MAGA and the war hawks patting themselves on the back as rumors spread that Iran’s new leaders are willing to talk (or possibly not). But Iran was talking prior to the outbreak of war, allegedly even making major concessions, and right now they are also threatening revenge for the death of the Supreme Leader in the form of their largest offensive ever. It would seem that the Iranian regime is not broken.

There was never a serious question about whether the US and Israel could hammer Iran in the opening days of the war. They’ve done that before, and they did it exceptionally well this time. The total inability of Iranian air defenses to down even one attacking plane is astounding and almost miraculous, a testament to Western technology and tactics, which apparently included liberal use of standoff weapons launched from outside Iranian airspace rather than going toe-to-toe with surface-to-air missiles.

No, the US excels at tactical warfare. It’s the long-term, strategic thinking that we tend to have problems with.

Prof. Robert Pape, who wrote the book (or a book anyway) on air power, points out that the initial success does not mean the war is over. Instead, the fact that the decapitation strikes did not cause the regime to collapse likely means that there won’t be a quick end to the war, or at least not a quick victory.

“Here is the strategic reality most people are missing,” Pape posted on the platform formerly known as Twitter, “Airpower alone has never produced positive regime change. I don’t mean rarely. I mean NEVER.” [emphasis his]

On his Substack, Pape further explains, “Strikes aimed at changing regimes change internal politics first — and rarely in the attacker’s favor.” Generally, nationalist sentiments arise during air campaigns, often leading to extreme outcomes.

“External attack narrows political space,” Pape continues. “Moderates lose oxygen. Security institutions consolidate authority. Nationalism becomes the organizing force.”

In recent history, we’ve seen how even sustained ground attacks can’t always break an authoritarian regime. In two years of brutal fighting in Gaza, Israel could not eradicate Hamas, an Iranian proxy.

The lack of desired results and the desire for success can produce pressure on the attacker to turn it up a notch. That could mean hitting more targets that were previously off limits or possibly sending in ground troops. The sunk cost fallacy is a real thing in foreign policy.

In the case of Iran War II, the Trump Administration is going to be facing other pressures as well. Most obviously, the war is already unpopular. Polling both before and after the onset of hostilities shows that at least a plurality of Americans disapprove of the war. It’s almost like he didn’t even try to persuade the public of the need for war [sarcasm alert].

With midterms approaching quickly, Republicans need a win - and quickly - but matters could get worse. There are already indications that Trump’s claims that Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon were false. If those claims and the Omani claims that Iran was ready to make concessions are confirmed, public opinion may take a further nosedive. And that’s not even mentioning the possibility of rising gas prices as the Straits of Hormuz become unnavigable.

There are more physical pressures as well. The war in Ukraine has illustrated to the world how quickly modern militaries can burn through logistical stocks, and even before the war, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, had warned that weapon stockpiles were almost depleted after last year’s Iran War I, attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen, and aid to Ukraine.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Trump had said that the war might last a week, but supplies of air defense interceptor missiles and cruise missiles were already in short supply. By one estimate, the US used 10-15 percent of its supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles on the first day.

That sort of burn rate is not only unsustainable in the current conflict, it may leave the US and its allies (the ones we have left anyway) at a disadvantage in other theaters. If, for example, China decided to make a move on Taiwan, we would also use mass quantities of ordnance (assuming we didn’t just step back and let China act in their sphere of influence).

To put it another way, time is on the Iranian regime’s side. If they can survive the next week, their chances of staying in power increase dramatically as the US and Israel run short on ammunition.

So what can we expect in our war with Iran? There seem to be three likely possibilities. The first is that the TACO principle takes control. Israel’s YNet reported on Sunday that Trump had already floated the idea of a ceasefire.

A second possibility is escalation. The vocal minority pushing for regime change will not want to stop short, and that throng likely includes influential members of the Trump cabinet. The president will almost certainly be pressured to push just a little bit harder.

The third and probably most likely scenario is that Trump finds something to call a victory and walks away. This is a version of the TACO option, but it comes with some tangible concession that Trump can point to as a justification for the whole thing. Moving the goalposts isn’t hard when you never said what the goal was.

To be clear, I’m not rooting for Iran or wanting the US to fail, but I am a realist, and not only do there seem to be serious flaws with Trump’s strategy, I’m not even sure that he has a Plan B if the plan of a massive aerial onslaught fails. This feeling was bolstered by reports that the US had identified potential leaders of a new government, but accidentally killed them.

I hope that I’m wrong. I hope the regime falls. I hope democracy sprouts in Iran and throughout the Middle East. But most of all, I hope that we don’t get all our appendages stuck in a sticky mess that we can’t disengage from.

So, how did Brer Rabbit escape the sinister tar baby? You won’t get spoilers from me. You’ll have to find out for yourself.

GOVT GONE WILD An almost blind refugee who spoke little English died in New York after being dropped off by CBP at a closed donut shop in the middle of a winter storm. Nurul Amin Shah Alam, 56, was detained on February 19, reports Chicago’s ABC 7. CBP released him the same day after it was determined that he was not eligible for deportation, but rather than releasing him to his family or returning him to his home, they left him at a Buffalo Tim Horton’s. He was found dead of exposure several days later.

There are growing indications that ICE and CBP are giving detainees “starlight tours,” a euphemism for dropping them off in the middle of nowhere in life-threatening conditions.

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