I don't have much to say on the Kansas vote, but for folks wondering to what extent abortion will be a motivating issue for voters in the remaining primaries and general election, Steve Kornacki from MSNBC has some interesting figures on turnout[1].
And from this morning's Bulwark newsletter[2], Will Saletan:
"The ballot measure was supposed to be helped by the timing of the vote. It was put on the ballot for primary day, not for the general election. In Kansas, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by almost 2 to 1, and Republican primaries are more heavily contested than Democratic primaries. So turnout was expected to be a lot healthier on the Republican side."
"Theoretically, that should have helped the ballot measure."
"But look at the numbers. As expected, turnout in the Republican gubernatorial primary was much higher than in the Democratic primary—roughly 450,000 to 275,000, with some precincts still to be counted. But turnout on the ballot measure blew those numbers away. More than 900,000 people voted on the abortion question. Even if you assume that everyone who voted in the Democratic gubernatorial primary also voted for the ballot measure, that leaves more than 250,000 “no” votes—roughly half the “no” constituency—that didn’t come from Democrats. And even if every “yes” vote on the ballot measure came from a Republican, that leaves at least 75,000 people who voted in the GOP gubernatorial primary but didn’t support the ballot measure."
Turnout was much higher among all parties in Kansas, but the GOP enjoyed the expected advantage due to registration supremacy. HOWEVER, while Democrats are largely voting as a bloc on abortion, the same is not true for the GOP and independents. It'll be interesting to see if GOP politicians double-down on pro-life messaging OR start to push that off to the side to keep a significant number of their voters from defecting to Democratic candidates in the next few elections.
Blocked China, bleeding Kansas, Missouri sanity, Michigan MAGA
I don't have much to say on the Kansas vote, but for folks wondering to what extent abortion will be a motivating issue for voters in the remaining primaries and general election, Steve Kornacki from MSNBC has some interesting figures on turnout[1].
And from this morning's Bulwark newsletter[2], Will Saletan:
"The ballot measure was supposed to be helped by the timing of the vote. It was put on the ballot for primary day, not for the general election. In Kansas, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by almost 2 to 1, and Republican primaries are more heavily contested than Democratic primaries. So turnout was expected to be a lot healthier on the Republican side."
"Theoretically, that should have helped the ballot measure."
"But look at the numbers. As expected, turnout in the Republican gubernatorial primary was much higher than in the Democratic primary—roughly 450,000 to 275,000, with some precincts still to be counted. But turnout on the ballot measure blew those numbers away. More than 900,000 people voted on the abortion question. Even if you assume that everyone who voted in the Democratic gubernatorial primary also voted for the ballot measure, that leaves more than 250,000 “no” votes—roughly half the “no” constituency—that didn’t come from Democrats. And even if every “yes” vote on the ballot measure came from a Republican, that leaves at least 75,000 people who voted in the GOP gubernatorial primary but didn’t support the ballot measure."
Turnout was much higher among all parties in Kansas, but the GOP enjoyed the expected advantage due to registration supremacy. HOWEVER, while Democrats are largely voting as a bloc on abortion, the same is not true for the GOP and independents. It'll be interesting to see if GOP politicians double-down on pro-life messaging OR start to push that off to the side to keep a significant number of their voters from defecting to Democratic candidates in the next few elections.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0DV1ymBWR8
[2] https://morningshots.thebulwark.com/p/the-good-bad-and-very-ugly