Boiling pots to watch
I don't remember the last time America has had so many threats from inside and outside
We’ve made it to Friday in a week with few surprises. I am keeping a weather eye on several troubling clouds building both inside and outside America, any of which can break into storm. If they all storm at once, it’s going to be a bad day. I’m typically an optimist, though I tinge my optimism with a patina of cynicism—but I don’t remember a time that our nation has had this many boiling pots on the stove at one time, both from inside and outside our borders.
Poll: 52% of Trump voters believe 2024 election will be rigged
As Donald Trump called Nikki Haley an “impostor” for coming within 12 points of beating him in New Hampshire, where the polls apparently are accurate and the election apparatus ship-shape and Bristol fashion, the election in November is super-suspect to his supporters.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll earlier in the month noted that 52% of Trump voters “said they had no confidence that the results of the 2024 election would be accurately counted and reported.” Just 7% think the vote tallies in November would be accurate. Talk about cognitive dissonance. In truth, most Trumpers are either so psychologically invested in their man that facts are irrelevant to the narrative, or they are using known lies to further their own goals.
Either way, it’s a boiling pot that will cause no end of problems this year.
Poll: 50% of Biden voters believe Israeli is committing genocide
Though there’s a small share of virulent Jew-haters in the Trump camp, most have sympathy and support for Israel. However, Biden’s core voters have gone insane with the anti-Israel mind virus.
A Yougov/The Economist poll realeased Thursday shows that 51% of Biden 2020 voters believe Israel’s invasion of Gaza is “too harsh” and is “likely” to expand into a bigger war. Fully half of Biden voters believe Israel is committing genocide, as the World Court (part of the anti-Israel U.N.) is set to rule on that very question.
Remember when the United States went to war for 17 years, killing over 400,000 including many civilians, to avenge the deaths of 2,977 innocents? Yeah, Biden voted for that war. More cognitive dissonance.
Israel: The World Court is going to rule, and it probably won’t be good
Good for Israel, that is. Now the World Court has about as much authority as the folks who produce the Oscars have over studio executives. But they do generate a lot of headlines. South Africa accused Israel of genocide before the body and is seeking nine emergency measures, which the Court could embrace, ignore, or do its own thing.
It’s likely the Court will find something to hold against Israel, which will give Israel’s enemies more cover to do their Jew-hatred out in the open. This self-fulfilling prophecy will undoubtedly make it more likely the war will widen, thereby confirming the bias of Biden voters who think Israel is committing genocide.
In turn, it will pressure Biden to turn against Israel. Perhaps he will resist.
North Korea is done with peace and Trump is to blame
The Japan Times published a sky-is-falling warning that Kim Jong-un is preparing for war. They have good sources. South Korea is in one of its warhawk phases, making violence more likely. The U.S. is distracted elsewhere while North Korea supplies weapons to Russia, which are being used in Ukraine. The axis between Iran, Russia, China and North Korea is clear, and nothing would consume America’s ability to respond to other places in the world like a good old-fashioned invasion by the North Koreans into the Republic of Korea.
China would be free to take Taiwan, Japan would hunker down and become ultra-militaristic, Israel would be left to its own devices against Iran, which would empower Iran, Yemen and other places to do their worst.
If there’s a time when the Kim dynasty is ready to renew a shooting war, now is as good as it’s been. Blame Trump, who in 2019 tried to kissy-kissy Kim, and it worked out pretty badly, souring the young leader on future peace initiatives, according to the article.
Oh, and I didn’t even get into the southern border, which has become a political football for both parties to the point where they’d rather make the problem worse than fix it, to blame it on the other side. Gross.
I don’t think any of these pots are going to boil over today, tomorrow, or this weekend. I think we’ll even make it to the Super Bowl and then on to Spring Training (baseball!) without falling into a nuclear holocaust or our troops marching to another foreign war, or dealing with some playtriot version of a civil war.
But I’m watching carefully.
Have a good weekend, dear readers. Forget about all this and enjoy your family, friends, church, or outdoors. Happiness and joy is a cure for many ills.
On your first point ("52% of Trump voters believe 2024 election will be rigged"), one of the persistent unanswered questions that I have in this election is what the GOP looks like numbers-wise compared to 2016 and 2020.
Trump clearly runs the Republican Party these days, but to what extent is the Republican Party the same force it was in the past two Presidential election cycles? My hunch is that it's a good deal more #MAGA concentrated, and what I wonder about is whether that's because more folks in the party accept Trump now than before (e.g. Ben Shapiro) or whether those that were not on the #MAGA train left the party, so it's more Trump-intense because the internal resisters left (e.g. our own David Thornton).
This open question has been bugging me for a while, so if you'd be interested in a data-driven look at this, I'd be happy to whip together an article for you if that would be of interest, looking at primary and general election turnout, party registration numbers, age cohorts, etc. Let me know if I should add this to my to-do list.
As of the beginning of January, about 1% of Gaza’s population had been estimated killed. At some point, that might qualify as a genocide even if unintentional.
When I look up the term, the definition is “the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group.” At least several elements of the definition seem to fit.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/08/middleeast/gaza-death-toll-population-intl/index.html#