Final thoughts before taking the Fifth
God is in control.
“Remember, remember the Fifth of November.”
If you’re not somewhat acquainted with English history, you may not have heard the line memorializing Guy Fawkes and the Gunpowder Plot of 1605. English history is fairly bloody but Fawke’s scheme to blow up parliament is remembered with particular infamy. The occasion is now celebrated with fireworks akin to the American Independence Day.
Anyway, all this is really apropos of nothing except that I hope that this November 5 won’t be remembered for similar political violence. The stage is set, the fuse is lit, and Donald Trump’s supporters have already been fanning the flames with claims of cheating and voter fraud.
Even since we made our Electoral College predictions last week, the race and vibe have noticeably shifted. On Saturday, the Des Moines Register released its final poll before the election. The poll shocked the political world with a seismic shift towards Kamala Harris, who led Trump by three points in the poll. I’ve historically cautioned about outlier polls and the margin of error still puts Iowa within Trump’s reach even if the poll is accurate - and the Des Moines Register poll is typically very accurate - but it should set off alarm bells for Republicans.
If Iowa is really in play, it would likely mean that swing states are breaking for Harris as well. But could there really be such a YUGE shift if other pollsters aren’t seeing it?
The answer is a definite maybe. Outliers are likely to be inaccurate if there has been no fundamental change in the lay of the land to cause a shift in opinion. That’s not the case this time.
I’ve often said that Trump can’t play it straight for more than a week or two, and this campaign was no exception. Trump managed to keep a low profile for months, but over the past two weeks, he went off the chain. His unhinged behavior may have very well tilted undecided voters against him.
Here are a few of the Trump-related stories from recent weeks:
Trump called America a “garbage can”
Trump fantasized about the death of Liz Cheney
Trump said, “Whether the women like it or not, I'm going to protect them”
Trump said he would give RFK, Jr. a “big role” in healthcare if he wins
RFK subsequently said Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water and use federal health data to attack vaccines
Trump fondled a microphone stand in a sexual manner at a rally
Trump said he “shouldn’t have left” office after losing the 2020 election
The Daily Beast obtained recordings of Jeffrey Epstein detailing his close personal relationship with Donald Trump
I think it’s very possible that many undecided voters had forgotten just how bad and chaotic the Trump presidency was until the last two weeks. They may be remembering now.
But what about the other polls that show a tight race? There are two possibilities. One is that weighting and algorithms meant to compensate for undercounting Trump voters in past elections are now masking a Harris surge. Pollsters could be suppressing what they see as outlier results because they are afraid of underestimating the MAGA vote.
The other possibility is that this could be a late polling swing that wasn’t there a few weeks ago. Trump’s aberrant behavior could be causing undecided voters and skeptical Republicans to break for Harris.
The truth is that we really don’t know. If the swing is real, we may find out who the next president will be early on Tuesday night rather than after days of counting absentee ballots.
As for me, I’ll be calling it an early night either way. I have an early wake up for a long day at my full-time job on Wednesday. That’s if I can sleep. Such is often the life of a professional pilot. I’ve often had to skip the Super Bowl or Fourth of July fireworks or even Christmas to go to work or to go to sleep in preparation for early flights, but the election results will still be there the next day.
The election won’t end with the counting. I fully expect Donald Trump to reject a loss the way he did in 2020, and there is a real possibility that Republican state and local officials may try to impede certification of election results. There is also a possibility that Democrats will behave poorly if they lose, but probably on a smaller scale and almost certainly without the candidate’s direction or provocation.
What I’d like for both sides to remember is that we are Americans and we are not supposed to behave this way. We have a long tradition of accepting election results and engaging in peaceful transfers of power, broken only by Donald Trump’s MAGA movement in 2020 and the Confederacy in 1860. Both sides should commit to peacefully getting on with the business of government after the results are in. [I’m looking pointedly in Donald Trump’s direction as I say this.]
Both sides - and especially Christians on both sides - need to remember that God remains in control. Just because your preferred candidate lost, it doesn’t mean that God somehow made a mistake or that things are not going according to his plan. Maybe God’s plan wasn’t what you thought it was.
As Americans and Christians we want the best for our country, but it may be that what we think is best isn’t what God thinks is best. Maybe it’s just that God has a different plan. But God will remain sovereign. To echo a popular conspiracy group, trust the plan. Trust God’s plan.
If Donald Trump loses, I urge my MAGA and Republican friends not to buy into the conspiracy theories about election fraud that he is already pushing. Christians should have better discernment than to believe anything that comes out of the mouth of a man who is dishonest in the extreme.
If Kamala Harris loses, I urge my Democrat friends not to take the streets to vent their disappointment and anger on neighborhood businesses, homes, and police. Christians should not engage in wanton acts of violence.
As Election Day approaches, it’s okay to pray for your candidate, but pray for the opposition too. The Bible tells us to pray for all people and all leaders, not just the ones we like. And I’m taking about real, supportive prayer, not the joking prayer of Psalm 109:8.
Pray that God’s will be done because God’s will is going to be done regardless of our personal preferences. Pray that our leaders guide America with wisdom, justice, and strength tempered with mercy.
And spend some time praying for peace, unity, and an end to the anger and hatred that divides America. Pray that truth and love win out. Pray for national revival and reconciliation, something that both sides desperately need.
I’ll see you on the other side.
PREDICTIONS: Even with the updates to the electoral situation, I’ll stick with the map I submitted on Friday. There are stories and analyses all over the internet, including an episode of the Atlanta Journal’s Politically Georgia podcast that suggests that early voting numbers in the Peach State may be good for Democrats with a surge of women voters. There is speculation that the larger-than-normal early turnout by Republicans has cannibalized their Election Day turnout rather than bringing in new voters.
No one really knows. I’m going to stand by the map that I locked in, but I will add that I think Republicans will take the Senate and Democrats will take the House.
For me, a Harris win with a small Republican Senate majority to keep her in check is probably the optimal result.
A FINAL NOTE: Matt Yglesias pointed out a second poll that only shows Trump up by five in Kansas
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"As for me, I’ll be calling it an early night either way. I have an early wake up for a long day at my full-time job on Wednesday. That’s if I can sleep. Such is often the life of a professional pilot. I’ve often had to skip the Super Bowl or Fourth of July fireworks or even Christmas to go to work or to go to sleep in preparation for early flights, but the election results will still be there the next day."
Heading to my local polling place at 5pm to get everything set up that we're legally allowed to set up before Election Day. Will show up at the same place to set up all the OTHER stuff that can't be set up until Election Day in a frantic hour before polls open at 6am.
Will spend the day processing voters and keeping an eye on things until the polls close at 7pm. My Cardinal Rule: Don't let anything stupid happen that would get us on the news!
After 7pm, we'll be taking down all the stuff we set up a little over 24 hours earlier, transmitting election results to the central office, and filling out all the paperwork to accompany the physical ballots that me (a Republican election judge) and a Democratic election judge will take a few blocks away to our local precinct processing center. Once that's done, I'll walk home, and see what ended up happening elsewhere. (Too busy to check the returns from other places while working on wrapping up our work.)
If I make it home before 10pm, we're doing well. I'll likely make a basic quesadilla, throw on CNN, and make bets with myself about how long it takes for Trump to stage another press conference declaring victory, regardless of what the numbers actually say. Should be in bed by midnight, but that's unlikely.
Ahh Guy Fawkes Day and the Vengeance Mask. It's like July 4th and Halloween had a baby in London.