It's 14 years too late for sanctions. Biden was prepared for the 2008 and 2014 Putin, and to accept the quick loss of Ukraine. He is utterly unprepared for the win, and for Putin's nuclear standoff.
This is a (very) long tweet thread that I think is a good read on Russia's military, strategy mistakes, the mythology at play, and how Putin is ultimately good at special ops and not mass war: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
Good links. Thank you. As for Russian military tactics, I agree that Putin favors short special ops over long wars but he’s also fought some long wars. Central bank sanctions are devastating however China can provide an intermediary system that gives Russia cash and credit access. In fact, one argument against a SWIFT cutoff is that it would give China a play to change the oil and gas reserve currency to the Yuan. If you want Russian gas, pay in Yuan not dollars. It could happen. Russia’s risk is becoming too dependent on China. I think Putin sees a bigger risk in losing the Ukraine war for now.
Long wars solely in duration, perhaps - but against much smaller foes than Ukraine, and none challenging their superiority in force (as called out in the thread).
China is going to play big part here: will they prop-up Putin, or will they let him drown? I don't know...
This is a (very) long tweet thread that I think is a good read on Russia's military, strategy mistakes, the mythology at play, and how Putin is ultimately good at special ops and not mass war: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
Sanctions on some individuals definitely don't work, but sanctions on their central bank are likely to be devastating: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/
Good links. Thank you. As for Russian military tactics, I agree that Putin favors short special ops over long wars but he’s also fought some long wars. Central bank sanctions are devastating however China can provide an intermediary system that gives Russia cash and credit access. In fact, one argument against a SWIFT cutoff is that it would give China a play to change the oil and gas reserve currency to the Yuan. If you want Russian gas, pay in Yuan not dollars. It could happen. Russia’s risk is becoming too dependent on China. I think Putin sees a bigger risk in losing the Ukraine war for now.
Long wars solely in duration, perhaps - but against much smaller foes than Ukraine, and none challenging their superiority in force (as called out in the thread).
China is going to play big part here: will they prop-up Putin, or will they let him drown? I don't know...
An interesting read on China and them (possibly) being played by Russia/Putin: https://www.stimson.org/2022/ukraine-did-china-have-a-clue/