Be a turnout election. Will more Luke warm Biden Democrats stay home in November than Never Trump conservatives?

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Feb 28·edited Feb 28

Technically Biden is opposed (Dean Phillips is still in the race for some reason...and came in behind Marianne Williamson who has suspended her campaign), just not with a real/serious opponent. That none of the possible other options (Newsom, Whitmer, Beshear, etc...) decided to run in 2024 has more to do with Biden's overall popularity with the Democratic party at large. I expect the same folks that make up the don't vote/barely vote/didn't vote for Hillary/*maybe* voted for Biden will do their usual thing - and I think Democrats will be more than happy to drop them in the interest of gaining/holding the Never Trump voters who are far more likely to turn out in November.

As was noted elsewhere: 10-20% uncommitted is the norm for Michigan primaries, and the last time there was a "primary" with a Democratic incumbent (2012) was a caucus not a primary (to speak to overall turnout).

The media will spin the uncommitted vote as being bad for Biden, but that was going to be the case anyway: the uncommitteds were setting a low bar for themselves for that purpose, and the media would love nothing more than a horserace - and because Biden is ultimately just boring and competent they have to reach.

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FYI: the uncommitted vote in the 1996 Democratic caucuses was 86%.

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