Not with a bang but a whimper
Is this the way the Iran war ends?
One of the more memorable poems from my high school literature classes was “The Hollow Men” by T. S. Eliot. When I say the poem was memorable, it was really the last stanza that lodged itself in my teenage brain. The poem hauntingly closed:
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
That phrase resurfaced in my mind in recent weeks as the ceasefire with Iran was extended over and over again. The president has repeatedly renewed the ceasefire despite Iran's refusal to meet his demands and despite the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, the president seems more focused on his ballroom plans, which are now requiring taxpayer funding, and railroading James Comey than winning the Iran war.
Trump’s Iran strategy seems to have devolved into making occasional vague threats, like this one on Truth Social that depicts Mr. Trump in another AI cosplay, this time seemingly as a Secret Service agent or a Man In Black (and I don’t mean Johnny Cash). Trump urged Iran to “get smart soon” and “sign a nonnuclear [sic] deal,” which presumably means a deal that would make them non-nuclear. The consequences if they don’t are unclear, but they would most likely face another empty ultimatum.
Trump’s partisans call his tactics “the madman strategy.” They believe that Trump is not literally crazy; it’s just a role he plays to frighten opponents into submission. The problem with this theory, aside from the fact that Trump may have actual and literal mental problems, is that for the madman strategy to work, there has to be follow-through on his mad threats. So far, TACO has trumped the madman strategy.
I do believe there is ample evidence that Donald Trump has age-related mental problems in addition to a general lack of intelligence and competence. I don’t think he’s mad, however. He has not only backed away from his threats to kill a “whole generation” of Iranians, possibly with nuclear weapons, and to attack the power plants that Iranian civilians depend on, but he has also retreated from apparent plans to invade portions of Iran such as Kharg Island. We moved Marines from the Far East to the Middle East early in the war, but so far, they are still sitting aboard their ships.
The problem with the madman strategy is that if other countries call your bluff and you back down, opponents don’t believe your future threats. The madman act doesn’t hold up if you only talk like a madman and don’t act like one.
In truth, Trump is acting carefully towards Iran. He has to. He is hemmed in by competing and mutually exclusive goals. He wants Iran to back down, but he also does not want to stop the flow of oil. He wants to save face, but he does not want the stock market to crash. He wants to appear strong, but he knows the war is unpopular and does not want to fuel the opposition by committing ground forces. In addition, he is operating without congressional authorization and is nine months away from facing a much less friendly Congress.
When all this is taken into account, it seems almost certain that Trump will not expand the war. Further escalation runs the risk of upsetting oil and financial markets, as Iran could further tighten the screws on the “trickle” of ships currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz and have their Houthi allies close the Bab el-Mandeb strait that leads into the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal.
On the other hand, Trump can’t back down and appear weak to either his MAGA base, his domestic opponents, or his international rivals. A clear Iranian victory would embolden others to ignore Trump’s madman act, as well as come at a political cost at home.
Trump’s conundrum is reminiscent of the classic battle of wits scene from “The Princess Bride,” in which Fezzik reasons that he obviously cannot choose either of the poisoned goblets. Ironically, this scene also gives us the quote about falling “victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia,” in addition to another Man in Black reference.
Trump obviously cannot continue to escalate the Iran war for political reasons, yet he clearly cannot de-escalate either. So, what is a cornered president to do? Probably nothing. Many animals, when cornered, will freeze and hope the predator doesn’t see them. I think that’s what we can expect in Iran. Trump’s Iran policy will be like a deer in headlights.
Donald Trump’s war on Iran may end, not with the bang of a nuclear explosion or even the “rolling thunder” of another “shock-and-awe” air campaign. Like Douglas MacArthur and the Korean War, the Iran War may never die, but “just fade away.”
Continuing the blockade allows Trump to act like he’s still fighting, even as Iran defiantly calls upon the US to end hostilities in exchange for reopening the Strait. The war could continue this way indefinitely, from ceasefire to ceasefire, with both sides claiming to have the upper hand.
There are downsides to the status quo, however. The price of oil is high and rising higher as markets realize that the Strait is not going to be fully open anytime soon. That will be a strain on the US and global economies, as well as weighing down Republican chances in this year’s midterms. In addition to energy prices, fertilizer also transits the Strait of Hormuz, and its shortage around the world could spark a food crisis in addition to the energy crisis. The status quo also means continuing expensive and morale-sapping deployments of US forces in the Persian Gulf region.
For Iran, the status quo offers time to rebuild its defenses and prepare for a possible ground invasion, but the regime also faces the possibility of widespread unrest as millions of its citizens fall into poverty. Of course, the regime has few compunctions about murdering thousands of dissidents to maintain order, but a popular revolt would mean that the mullahs would be fighting a two-front war.
There are a few things that might break the logjam of the current status quo. One of those things is if the supply of oil to world markets is inadequate to keep the economy going. CNN reports that the number of tankers transiting the Strait went from about three thousand per month to 154 in March. While some oil is still moving through the Gulf and along alternate routes, inventories are dropping, and if stocks run low enough to become a security threat, Trump and/or others might be forced to roll the dice and invade to topple the regime or at least open the Strait.
For the moment, there seems to be enough oil reaching markets to keep the economy moving, albeit at greatly elevated prices. Nevertheless, some experts predict a “day of reckoning coming.” That day is more likely to arrive if the Iranian regime remains at the switch, controlling access to and from the Persian Gulf, but at the moment, there is no good way to change that reality.
That’s especially true when the man in control of the effort against the Iranian regime is reminiscent of another reference from high school English lit, specifically William Shakespeare’s “Macbeth:” “… an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
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Love the responses you get David; between the Matt Taabbi's oft cited mistaken identity and the oft cited claims of TDS, dare i say, boring?
The US , whether winning the war, losing the war or simply being a stalemate, those of us living the "American Dream" are being crushed by rising costs and no plan to address them. The good news? Oil companies have doubled their profits this year. Drill baby drill...indeed.
On a brighter side, the stable genius has clearly grown tired of Iran, the whine of high prices and the congress mandated release of the full Epstein files. His focus for all us poor lemmings he governs is a 400 million dollar albatross called a ballroom/bunker and of even greater importance pursuing justice over a photograph of sea shells.
Only in America brother, only in America.
David, your TDS is blinding you to what is actually going on now in Iran. It is obvious that you don’t know much about the production of crude oil so I won’t get into a pissing contest here with you but will tell you this one fact that you either don’t know or choose to ignore: Oil wells can not be shut down. You have to keep pumping. Once you shut them down they clog up and can’t easily be restarted and likely be restarted at all. You must keep pumping and either store or ship the oil. Iran has acknowledged that they have as little as a week’s storage left. The President knows this, Iran knows this, but you obviously don’t or you would not have eloquently written such a poorly reasoned column.