Hi everyone. I know I said I was going to publish less. And I mean it, but this is a bee in my bonnet and I have to get it out. They’re saying Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2024 presidential primary, if he runs. To me that’s a big “if” and I’d like to know who “they” are, please.
I think you're making a mistake by making "the majority of the country" the population from which you're sampling from. For one thing, Trump won in 2016 WITHOUT a majority of the country.
However the immediate relevant population here isn't the pool of registered American voters, but rather the likely 2024 GOP primary voters. The country writ large may (currently) be rejecting the return to Trumpism versus the Generic and Unspecified Democratic presidential candidate, but the state-level GOP members (who run the local elections) and current motivated GOP base still think that the election was stolen and Trump didn't lose. They're fired up, and we have yet to see ANY significant new GOP figure making a run at higher office that's running as the GOP's anti-Trump. Until we start to see Trumpism fade among the GOP voters and state-level officials (who are currently tripping over themselves to demonstrate their Trumpiness, witness the self-immolation of J.D. Vance), the 2024 match-up between Trump vs. a Democrat remains the most likely scenario at the moment.*
On the Democratic side, they aren't doing themselves any favors by shooting themselves in the foot trying to replay the New Deal and sacrificing smaller wins (such as the smaller 1.5 TRILLION DOLLAR infrastructure bill) to chase more improbable bigger wins. Where we can at least point to figures like DeSantis as likely heirs-apparent to Trump, the Democratic field to replace Biden is EVEN weaker[1], when that party should be grooming the next-generation Democrat to run in 2024. (And Kamala Harris demonstrating an active disinterest in tackling hard problems disqualifies her - even among Democrats - as being Biden's successor.)
Given the weakness of the Democratic field - especially as Biden thinks he can be a new FDR - absent one of the two men dropping dead from their advanced ages - the clearest possible scenario at this point is Old Man Bum Fight 2.0 in 2024. Of course, someone may emerge to save us from the Grumpy Old Men (and they're taking their sweet time doing so), or Events may change the equation, but I don't see any more likely plausible scenarios at this point.
In 2016, I made a similar bet that there's no way America would elect Donald Trump to the office of the Presidency, and Events made a fool of me then. I'm not willing to make a similar claim this go-around, and as we covered in prior threads, I'm very disturbed that Democrats are also discounting that likelihood again and are too busy raiding the policy liquor cabinet instead of taking the common-sense actions to codify broken norms into law to mitigate the damage of a Trump 2.0.
* The Unchewed Big Mac may ultimately be what breaks us out of this dystopian scenario.
In theory, what you are saying makes sense. But tell me that if it comes down to an election between Trump and someone like Kamala Harris, most republicans will hold their nose and vote for Trump to keep Kamala from the White House. It’ll be another Flight 93 election.
I'm kind of in both camps when it comes to the ability of the GOP to move past Trump, as to what will happen. I think that many reluctant Trump voters have moved on from Trump and will end up supporting others in the GOP primary. I think as time goes by, the number of people in the GOP who want to move on from Trump will continue to grow. With that being said, this change in heart among GOP voters(and especially the GOP base) is happening ever so slowly. And Chris has mentioned here that Trump was able to secure the GOP nomination with only a plurality of the total vote. What is also worth noting that that prior to the 2016 election, there were many more self-professed "NeverTrump"/"Trump Skeptic" conservatives than now, even with a handful that moved on from Trump after his defeat last November and 1-6. Some of the most ardent opponents of Trump on the right have become strong supporters of the former President, and show little to no signs of letting up(J.D. Vance being a notable example of such).
Also, large swaths of the American electorate have short term political memory. When 2024 rolls around, the January 6 attempted subversion of the Constitution will be a distant memory for most voters. Most of us here at the Racket News(David, Steve, and most of regular commenters) will remember. But for the average center-right voter, there will be other fish to fry. If Biden ends up tanking, or if the Democrats nominate an odious candidate(Kamala Harris, for example), I could see GOP base going through every mental gymnastics out there to justify their vote for Trump(should he run in 2024). There will be at least a handful of post-Trump Republicans who will justify jettisoning their prior objections to Trump should the Democrats nominate a hard left candidate.
I think you're making a mistake by making "the majority of the country" the population from which you're sampling from. For one thing, Trump won in 2016 WITHOUT a majority of the country.
However the immediate relevant population here isn't the pool of registered American voters, but rather the likely 2024 GOP primary voters. The country writ large may (currently) be rejecting the return to Trumpism versus the Generic and Unspecified Democratic presidential candidate, but the state-level GOP members (who run the local elections) and current motivated GOP base still think that the election was stolen and Trump didn't lose. They're fired up, and we have yet to see ANY significant new GOP figure making a run at higher office that's running as the GOP's anti-Trump. Until we start to see Trumpism fade among the GOP voters and state-level officials (who are currently tripping over themselves to demonstrate their Trumpiness, witness the self-immolation of J.D. Vance), the 2024 match-up between Trump vs. a Democrat remains the most likely scenario at the moment.*
On the Democratic side, they aren't doing themselves any favors by shooting themselves in the foot trying to replay the New Deal and sacrificing smaller wins (such as the smaller 1.5 TRILLION DOLLAR infrastructure bill) to chase more improbable bigger wins. Where we can at least point to figures like DeSantis as likely heirs-apparent to Trump, the Democratic field to replace Biden is EVEN weaker[1], when that party should be grooming the next-generation Democrat to run in 2024. (And Kamala Harris demonstrating an active disinterest in tackling hard problems disqualifies her - even among Democrats - as being Biden's successor.)
Given the weakness of the Democratic field - especially as Biden thinks he can be a new FDR - absent one of the two men dropping dead from their advanced ages - the clearest possible scenario at this point is Old Man Bum Fight 2.0 in 2024. Of course, someone may emerge to save us from the Grumpy Old Men (and they're taking their sweet time doing so), or Events may change the equation, but I don't see any more likely plausible scenarios at this point.
In 2016, I made a similar bet that there's no way America would elect Donald Trump to the office of the Presidency, and Events made a fool of me then. I'm not willing to make a similar claim this go-around, and as we covered in prior threads, I'm very disturbed that Democrats are also discounting that likelihood again and are too busy raiding the policy liquor cabinet instead of taking the common-sense actions to codify broken norms into law to mitigate the damage of a Trump 2.0.
* The Unchewed Big Mac may ultimately be what breaks us out of this dystopian scenario.
[1] https://focusgroup.thebulwark.com/malaise-2-0-democrats-grade-biden-with-jonathan-v-last
In theory, what you are saying makes sense. But tell me that if it comes down to an election between Trump and someone like Kamala Harris, most republicans will hold their nose and vote for Trump to keep Kamala from the White House. It’ll be another Flight 93 election.
I'm kind of in both camps when it comes to the ability of the GOP to move past Trump, as to what will happen. I think that many reluctant Trump voters have moved on from Trump and will end up supporting others in the GOP primary. I think as time goes by, the number of people in the GOP who want to move on from Trump will continue to grow. With that being said, this change in heart among GOP voters(and especially the GOP base) is happening ever so slowly. And Chris has mentioned here that Trump was able to secure the GOP nomination with only a plurality of the total vote. What is also worth noting that that prior to the 2016 election, there were many more self-professed "NeverTrump"/"Trump Skeptic" conservatives than now, even with a handful that moved on from Trump after his defeat last November and 1-6. Some of the most ardent opponents of Trump on the right have become strong supporters of the former President, and show little to no signs of letting up(J.D. Vance being a notable example of such).
Also, large swaths of the American electorate have short term political memory. When 2024 rolls around, the January 6 attempted subversion of the Constitution will be a distant memory for most voters. Most of us here at the Racket News(David, Steve, and most of regular commenters) will remember. But for the average center-right voter, there will be other fish to fry. If Biden ends up tanking, or if the Democrats nominate an odious candidate(Kamala Harris, for example), I could see GOP base going through every mental gymnastics out there to justify their vote for Trump(should he run in 2024). There will be at least a handful of post-Trump Republicans who will justify jettisoning their prior objections to Trump should the Democrats nominate a hard left candidate.
I sure hope you're right.