I got an email this morning from Ted Cruz’s campaign. “A new poll just came out. Talarico is leading Paxton, 50% to 45%. Three months ago, we were ahead. Now we’re not.” You don’t say? Or, as we used to say when I was in school, “ya think?” Or, the evergreen reply of “duh!”
The RealClearPolling 2026 Generic Congressional Vote tracker had Democrats leading 46.1 to 43.8 on May 2, which narrowed to just a 1-point lead on May 22. On September 6th, that had widened to 5.7 points. It now stands at 8.1 points, with Democrats for the first time breaking the plurality mark of 50 percent.
In Texas, Talarico leads Paxton by 2.6; in Michigan, El-Sayed leads Rogers by 2.1. And in blood-red Iowa, Hinson leads Turek by a mere 1.3 points. President Trump’s approval rating is circling the toilet bowl, with 58.7 percent unhappy with his performance in office. Never mind the quality of candidates—Donald Trump is sinking his party’s chances in the midterm elections.
Now let’s talk about the quality of the candidates, at least some of them. Ken Paxton is, charitably, an adulterous slimeball. The fact that he has never lost a statewide election says a lot about Texas. But there’s apparently a line, though I am not sure precisely where it is. At some point, Paxton, who has remained a stalwart Trump toady since before the 2020 attempted auto-golpe, has soured enough voters to run behind.
The president’s continual, transparently illiberal efforts to subvert the election process and throw the results into chaos, have undoubtedly done more damage by motivating more centrist voters to become Team Blue cheerleaders. I don’t think most of these can be won back in the next five weeks.
Looking at a possible blue wave, the polls are harbingers of a Republican butt-whipping. In the Senate: Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina all have blue leading. John E. Sununu, of the Granite State’s political dynasty, trails Rep. Chris Pappas by 4.8 points. The fact that Pappas is openly gay was played in some PAC ads, which only serve to make Pappas more popular in frozen chosen, socially liberal, “Live Free or Die” territory.
In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff is running a credible, professional campaign. I asked for an interview, or even to get his campaign to answer some written questions, and so far, I’ve received crickets in my email inbox. Why would they answer me, given that Ossoff is a comfortable 7.5 points ahead of Rep. Mike Collins, a man bound to MAGA as much as one gets (Burt Jones notwithstanding)?
At this point, it is not so risky to say that Democrats may end up with both houses of Congress. No wonder the president has been courting people like Zohran Mamdani and Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries. He wants to have some room for dialogue when he’s besieged by blue.
Things a blue Congress might seek to do include ending the war against Iran, ending the president’s ability to blackmail the Federal Reserve and other nations with unilateral, punishing tariffs, force the president to appoint Senate-confirmed heads of agencies which have gone for months with acting leaders, and, hopefully, impeach Pete Hegseth for dereliction of duty and remove him from office. It would only take less than a dozen Republican senators to accomplish this, and I think Hegseth has annoyed far more than that.
Republicans remaining in Congress, not all, but some, may decide to cooperate more with Democrats, at least in backchannel discussions, to limit the permanent damage to their party the president is causing, and can continue to cause in the next two years. One of those who may appear to support the boss but is working against him is his own Vice President, J.D. Vance. I don’t think Vance would ever publicly stand against the president, but I do think he will work behind the scenes to keep his own 2028 chances from sinking, tied to the boulder Trump is rolling uphill.
The only bright spot for Republicans in 2028, is that Kamala Harris is being pushed to run again, and at this point is the likely nominee. Harris is a train wreck who, at this point, could not win a governor’s race in her own state. It would be a horrible mistake for Democrats to nominate her, but there’s plenty of time to work these things out. We just don’t know who might rise from the bench on Team Blue between now and primary season.
And there may be challengers to Vance on the Republican side, depending on how many dumpsters this administration sets to the torch.
I think it’s safe to say that the president is on the unpopular side of major issues in this midterm: data centers, A.I., military actions, profligate spending, and his stupid tricks and demolition in Washington, D.C. are all examples of how Trump is digging a grave for his own party. If this extends to the state level, losing some legislatures and governorships, it could make for a very challenging two years.
I don’t just mean challenging for Trump; it’s also challenging for us as his tantrums and grudges get more petty and shrill. The news cycle is hard enough already. A blue wave may turbocharge the headaches, but at least we won’t have the idiocy we have now.
A Vance v Harris 2028 campaign will be the ultimate proof that the USA is on the backside of global leadership. Maybe that's what the Trump - Xi meeting will be about, laying the groundwork for a transition of power. Great thought to start the week.