Peace in our time?
Is the ceasefire still on?
On Tuesday, the world’s emotions ran hot. The day started with a threat by Donald Trump to destroy Iran’s civilization and culminated with a ceasefire deal. As more information emerges about the ceasefire, it seems that the entire incident was an entirely predictable TACO scenario in which Trump went to the brink of what many interpreted as a threat of nuclear attack and then backed down.
Interestingly, a tweet by the prime minister of Pakistan calling for peace originally began with the phrase, “Draft – Pakistan’s PM Message on X.” This led to immediate suspicion that the message was not composed by the prime minister or anyone in Pakistan. The header was removed a few minutes later, but the incident smacks of fake “black Trump supporter” posts that originated from white accounts. There is much speculation that the Trump Administration fed the prime minister his lines. It would be really ironic if the prime minister’s call for an end to the war wins the Nobel Peace Prize.
Iran dismissed Trump’s 15-point plan to end the war and submitted its own 10-point proposal that Trump called “workable.” That’s surprising because the Iranian plan includes the removal of sanctions, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, reparations for the war, acceptance of Iran’s right to enrich uranium, and the cessation of hostilities against both Iran and its militant allies in the Middle East, as well as the withdrawal of American forces in the region. The Iranian plan amounts to a call for America’s unconditional surrender of the Middle East.
It’s hard to see how Iran would have even thought their proposal would be seriously considered when Trump and Netanyahu’s original war aim, disabling Iran’s nuclear program, would be totally discarded by the plan. And then there’s the Strait of Hormuz, which was free to navigate before the war and is now controlled by Iran.
The Iranian plan reminds me of nothing so much as Austria-Hungary’s 1914 ultimatum to Serbia. The deliberately over-the-top demands were designed to be rejected by Serbia. Austria was like the dog that caught the car when Serbia accepted all but one of the conditions.
And like the conditions accepted by Germany at the other end of WWI, acceptance of Iran’s proposal would guarantee a future war (which would also violate the plan). Leaving Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz, with an intact nuclear program, and with an angry grudge against the United States and Israel would mean that Iran could enrich itself with shipping tolls and oil revenues and resume the war at a time of its own choosing.
It’s hard to see how Iran would have even thought their proposal would be seriously considered, especially in light of subsequent Administration claims that they threw the Iranian proposal directly into the garbage, but it’s also difficult to see what the Trump Administration thought that it was agreeing to if it wasn’t agreeing to the Iranian proposal. To be fair, it’s a bit hard to tell what the terms of the ceasefire are since there doesn’t seem to be a written agreement, but Trump did repost an Iranian message claiming he had accepted their 10 points.
The full 10 points are unlikely to be accepted in a permanent agreement, but It seems likely that the Iran war will end in a worst-of-all-worlds scenario. Iran’s nuclear program is damaged but likely intact. The regime is also not only intact but emboldened and in control of the Strait. We’re arguably in a worse spot than we were pre-war. Even Fox News is acknowledging that Trump’s war aims have not been met.
That’s also true when it comes to dealing with China and Russia. Make no mistake: Xi and Putin were watching. They saw not only the skill and effectiveness of the US military but the indecisiveness and sheer incompetence of the national command authority.
Odds are good that the ceasefire won’t hold. By the time you read this, the truce may have already broken down, and as I write this on Wednesday, I’m wondering how much I’ll have to rewrite before posting on Thursday. [Indeed, by Thursday afternoon, it seems that the US is the only country that has ceased firing.]
The most immediate problem is that Trump agreed to the ceasefire; Israel did not, and to the extent that they are honoring it, they are only doing so in Iran. The Israelis have hit targets in Lebanon. There are also reports of an attack on an Iranian refinery, probably by Israel, and retaliatory Iranian strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE. Initially, Iran said the Strait was still closed and that ships transiting without permission would be destroyed, but by Thursday afternoon, the regime was saying that a limited number of ships would be allowed passage after paying tolls.
Iran was earning $50 billion annually under sanctions before the war. By David Stockman’s estimate, they are currently taking in an estimated $100 billion annually without sanctions, with the potential to add another $90 billion for tolls through the Strait at $2 million per ship under normal traffic flows.
I think that Iran is performing a balancing act. They want to limit passage through the Strait to exercise control over the world economy and refill their coffers. If they completely shut down the Strait indefinitely, however, they run the risk that a coalition will emerge to move in and reopen the waterway by force, possibly destroying the regime in the process.
Assuming the ceasefire holds, Trump has indicated that the pause will only last for two weeks. That means the war may resume about the same time that we get the Republican healthcare plan and Trump kicks off infrastructure week. A Pentagon assessment found that approximately 80 percent of Iran’s air defenses have been destroyed, but the hiatus should give them time to import new systems from China (since Russia is also running short due to Ukraine) and dig in against a possible ground invasion before hostilities resume. Trump’s micromanagement of the campaign is reminiscent of LBJ during the Vietnam War.
No matter what happens next, all signs point to the idea that Trump is tired of the war and looking for a way out, even to the point of suggesting a joint venture between the US and Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz, calling the idea “a beautiful thing.” A war can’t be won without the political will to do so, and it seems that no one, not even Donald Trump, the man who started the war, has the will to win this one.
As Robert Pape, the airpower expert that I quoted at the beginning of this war, points out, “The US used overwhelming force—and still could not control the outcome. That’s a structural shift in power.”
Donald Trump came to a crossroads between choosing to go all-in with a ground war and accepting a loss. He chose to lose. The shooting and killing may continue, but this war is as good as over unless he reconsiders.
IRAN DISCOVERS TACO TUESDAY I haven’t been sharing Iran’s propaganda videos, but the regime is definitely winning the meme war. The newest video lampoons Trump’s “Taco Tuesday” reversals. The worst part is that it’s impossible to refute because it’s true.
CHINESE DETENTE Taiwan’s opposition leader, a favorite in upcoming elections, is going to China on a peace mission. I’d be surprised if the trip wasn’t a response to the lack of trust that many of our allies are probably feeling right now.
ELECTIONS UPDATE Special elections this week provided more encouragement for Democrats. The Donks picked up a Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin, a mayoral win in Missouri, and a state legislative flip in Oklahoma. Although they didn’t win the main event, Marjorie Taylor Greene’s old seat, as Steve Berman wrote, that was always a tough lift in that deep-red district, but the swing was impressive. Jamie Dupree, Georgia reporter extraordinaire, reported that the average shift in the nine counties that make up the district was 25.5 points towards the Democrats from 2004.
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