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author

Agreed that Russian troops are behaving like criminal thugs without any restraint, and that this doctrine emanates from the Kremlin, from Putin. As for the laundry list to respond here, I have questions.

1. Who will fly the helicopters? Who will repair them? How will they be flown into the country?

2. Who will deliver the tanks? (Assuming they are old Soviet)

3. How will choppers and tanks help Ukraine when they need to be transported across the country where the war is going on?

4. How will we keep Russia from using illegal/underground economy to get cash? North Korea does it, Iran does it. Russian ships turn off their AIS transponders.

5. How could the UN expel Russia from the Security Council without rewriting the charter, and how can it be done over China's veto? Better to scrap the UN and start over?

6. Would we expect NATO to bypass all its rules as to how nations are admitted? What does that mean for countries who had to comply? Are all countries that are under attack now eligible?

7. What influence does the US have as to who the EU admits or doesn't?

8. If the US wanted to be directly involved, we have all the justification we need under the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. The UK is a full signatory and a NATO member. The US expressed formal support for the agreement. Russia violated it, and NATO can legally enforce it.

9. It's only a matter of time before Russia does something that incurs onto NATO territory, if the war continues.

10. After the war, the Steel Ring will replace the Iron Curtain. Russia will retreat behind it, leveraging blockchain currency, illegal oil, international fronts, and criminal organizations operating in the West to do business. The ISS will end. We will be back to blocs and Cold War tactics. War crimes and trials will be difficult.

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author

The only way to stop the killing of Ukrainian people is for western democracies to use increased conventional military measures in concert with sanctions. The current NATO nations policy is to aid Ukraine enough to resist, but do nothing to widen the war. Given that war is obscene and that Putin has been allowed military operations freely so far in Ukraine, it is not a surprise that we are finding brutality. This will continue to happen until there is a Western policy change. Maybe Putin's brutality will move the needle toward additional incremental intervention?

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Apr 4, 2022Liked by Chris J. Karr, Jay Berman

To answer a few of these:

The priority for military equipment is that which they can currently use and service immediately, followed by new equipment that they will need to be trained on use (weeks) and servicing (months).

It'll be very difficult to prevent Russia from using crypto or other means to get cash: that said, if they can't spend it on anything they need (like components or machinery for military equipment) then that cash likely does them little good. Kamil Kazani has some good Tweet threads on how Russia is reliant on the West and other nations (like South Korea) for these items, and if sanctions on those items are maintained - they'll have significant difficulties building/rebuilding their military might.

I don't think NATO would allow Ukraine to be a member while Russia is currently in-country: it's more conducive if/when they are expelled. Alternatively, Ukraine could invite/request NATO assistance instead of membership.

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