Apr 8, 2022Liked by Steve Berman, Chris J. Karr, Jay Berman
Every day through tears I ask “ how much longer, how many more dead before the civilized world screams ENOUGH? And every day there are more atrocities and war crimes and feckless leaders doing nothing to stop the mad man in the Kremlin. I don’t want to see us go to war but reason tells me if we allow this to continue Putin will venture into other countries. Please make this stop.
I get that it's a reflex to blame Biden: let's take a wider eye to the full history and actions of all involved, the mistakes made in the past, and of course what can/should be done going forward.
The assessment regarding how fast Ukraine would fall was solely based on size and technical capabilities of the armies: the poor state of the Russian Army's soldiers/equipement, and the "will to fight" that is present in Ukraine (and absent in Afghanistan) were unknown and in regards to the "will to fight" extremely difficult/impossible to quantify as it's an intangible thing. The will to fight helps explain the difference between expectations/assessments and reality for Afghanistan's and Ukraine's respective performances.
I'm not sure if this is revisionist or accurate, but Obama recently stated that he tried to get the EU/NATO to enact sanctions after Crimea: granted those were limited to the Crimea and not Russia as a whole, but the story itself speaks to the wider Western world ignoring the issue.
The US has been training and equipping Ukraine since the 2014 invasion. The Ukrainian military has evolved from a Soviet-style military to a modern, professional one: that's allowed them to perform so well thus far. If the plan was to sacrifice Ukraine, then why train and equip them?
It has been the US's policy during/since the Cold War to avoid getting into a direct shooting war with Russia. If the goal is to avoid direct engagement with Russia, then re-equipping the Ukrainians is the best move as it's going to be a war of attrition: and Russia, while having more resources at the moment, will be unable to reproduce the lost equipment/soldiers due to the sanctions - 'cause Russia relies on Western technology and machinery.
Agreed with all of that. In fact I wrote about how the NATO war plan is going so well. However, Biden’s approach was to assume Ukraine would lose and America would not directly interfere. I think the experience in Afghanistan influenced his caution and they overcorrected.
In a war of attrition where the enemy’s goal is to kill every living thing without regard to military doctrine or restraint, all the gear in the world won’t stop the carnage if their army is bigger. And Russia has more troops to fling into the death grinder than Ukraine does. The equipping won’t stop the atrocities. I’m not saying Biden shouldn’t have done what he did, I’m saying on Day 1 it became overcome by events (OBE). Putin has adjusted from quick victory to genocide. Biden has adjusted his rhetoric but the plan is still to sacrifice Ukraine.
Apr 8, 2022·edited Apr 8, 2022Liked by Chris J. Karr
One thing I forgot: why the heck didn't the House vote on the lend-lease program before taking vacation? Ukraine needs the medium+ altitude SAMs ASAP.
We will have to see how the next bit of time goes: ideally the civilian population will be evacuated from the South and East to the West (Lviv - which happens to be my mother-in-law's birthplace). Those already out of the country need to be resettled in the West ASAP.
I'm on the side of not getting into a direct conflict, because that's just asking for a much worse conflict. Fingers crossed that the West takes the right course of action, and Ukraine is able to hold out long enough for Putin to fall.
I would attribute that to 2 things. 1) The WH is pushing caution so they didn’t force it. 2) Pelosi has COVID and didn’t push it. So it will wait and they’ll come back and make it official. We haven’t yet fulfilled the $1.7B Biden promised in his Warsaw speech.
Every day through tears I ask “ how much longer, how many more dead before the civilized world screams ENOUGH? And every day there are more atrocities and war crimes and feckless leaders doing nothing to stop the mad man in the Kremlin. I don’t want to see us go to war but reason tells me if we allow this to continue Putin will venture into other countries. Please make this stop.
I get that it's a reflex to blame Biden: let's take a wider eye to the full history and actions of all involved, the mistakes made in the past, and of course what can/should be done going forward.
The assessment regarding how fast Ukraine would fall was solely based on size and technical capabilities of the armies: the poor state of the Russian Army's soldiers/equipement, and the "will to fight" that is present in Ukraine (and absent in Afghanistan) were unknown and in regards to the "will to fight" extremely difficult/impossible to quantify as it's an intangible thing. The will to fight helps explain the difference between expectations/assessments and reality for Afghanistan's and Ukraine's respective performances.
I'm not sure if this is revisionist or accurate, but Obama recently stated that he tried to get the EU/NATO to enact sanctions after Crimea: granted those were limited to the Crimea and not Russia as a whole, but the story itself speaks to the wider Western world ignoring the issue.
The US has been training and equipping Ukraine since the 2014 invasion. The Ukrainian military has evolved from a Soviet-style military to a modern, professional one: that's allowed them to perform so well thus far. If the plan was to sacrifice Ukraine, then why train and equip them?
It has been the US's policy during/since the Cold War to avoid getting into a direct shooting war with Russia. If the goal is to avoid direct engagement with Russia, then re-equipping the Ukrainians is the best move as it's going to be a war of attrition: and Russia, while having more resources at the moment, will be unable to reproduce the lost equipment/soldiers due to the sanctions - 'cause Russia relies on Western technology and machinery.
Agreed with all of that. In fact I wrote about how the NATO war plan is going so well. However, Biden’s approach was to assume Ukraine would lose and America would not directly interfere. I think the experience in Afghanistan influenced his caution and they overcorrected.
In a war of attrition where the enemy’s goal is to kill every living thing without regard to military doctrine or restraint, all the gear in the world won’t stop the carnage if their army is bigger. And Russia has more troops to fling into the death grinder than Ukraine does. The equipping won’t stop the atrocities. I’m not saying Biden shouldn’t have done what he did, I’m saying on Day 1 it became overcome by events (OBE). Putin has adjusted from quick victory to genocide. Biden has adjusted his rhetoric but the plan is still to sacrifice Ukraine.
One thing I forgot: why the heck didn't the House vote on the lend-lease program before taking vacation? Ukraine needs the medium+ altitude SAMs ASAP.
We will have to see how the next bit of time goes: ideally the civilian population will be evacuated from the South and East to the West (Lviv - which happens to be my mother-in-law's birthplace). Those already out of the country need to be resettled in the West ASAP.
I'm on the side of not getting into a direct conflict, because that's just asking for a much worse conflict. Fingers crossed that the West takes the right course of action, and Ukraine is able to hold out long enough for Putin to fall.
I would attribute that to 2 things. 1) The WH is pushing caution so they didn’t force it. 2) Pelosi has COVID and didn’t push it. So it will wait and they’ll come back and make it official. We haven’t yet fulfilled the $1.7B Biden promised in his Warsaw speech.
Follow-up: the SAMs are starting to arrive.
https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1512400749468299269